One of the two items I listed as to "what could change" ... appears to be happening. The interaction between the north energy and south energy is not as cooperative as it appeared to be just 12 hours ago. This is from observational data, not just models. As a result, the snow ought to be lighter in intensity as the storm is pushed a little to the SE rather than pulled a little NW. This leads to a lower accumulation.
My update for the Sunday Storm
What Could Change
Full update later this weekend. Enjoy the snow. We got more coming in the next couple of weeks.
Good sunny morning! Time for an update.
Thursday: Sunny. 37.
Friday: Periods of light snow in the morning. 1-3". Some light mist in afternoon. 38.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. Colder. 34.
Sunday: Cloudy. Chance for snow. 30.
Monday: Partly sunny. Flurries. Chance snow shower. Cold. 22.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 25.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Chance snow/ice. 32.
I am later on my update than I had wanted, but there really wasn't much need as the forecast is working out well ... however, I will be a little bit underdone. 10-14" will be too little. Everything else went very well.
What to expect tonight and tomorrow:
Wed and Thu look to be rather nice winter days. The next cold front comes into our area on Friday bringing some snow/rain showers with it. This will not be a big deal. Colder Sat, and then another storm for Sun/Mon? Will a true arctic blast follow behind it? Let's get through this storm first.
Tuesday: Periods of light snow. Accumulation C-2". 31.
Wednesday: Chance snow showers early then partly sunny. 34.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. 35.
Friday: Cloudy. Snow/sleet showers then rain showers. 41.
Saturday: Chance snow shower. Partly sunny. 35.
Sunday: Cloudy. Chance for snow. 28.
Monday: Cloudy. Chance for snow. 20.
I really do not have any changes to the going forecast. It looks to be right on track as of 6 pm Sunday evening. Some things to remember:
Total snow: 10-14" with locally heavier amounts.
I'll update Mon at Noon.
Remember ... Enjoy.
Summary: This storm will likely be the memorable one of this winter season. It really has not been a difficult forecast in the general details. A major storm moving from central California across the nation to the Mid-Atlantic coast and off shore. The biggest question during the week was, "would the flow in eastern Canada squish the storm to the south a little and cause a restriction on the precipitation shield?"
The answer has come and the answer is no it will not. Now the only question remaining is, "where will the heavy snow bands set up?" These bands will lead to someone in eastern PA getting 24 or more inches of snow. Something to keep in mind.
My current basic thinking: I am expecting about 1.5" of precipitation which at a typical 10:1 snow to rain ratio gives us 15" snow. Take about 10% off for sleet, which could mix in especially Monday morning, and then that gives you about 13" snow.
What Could Go Wrong:
Sunday: Snow begins after 12 pm. Becomes moderate to heavy at times.
Sunday Night: Snow continues through 5 am. It should become lighter toward daylight.
Monday: Ice may mix in during early morning from 5 am - 10 am. Snow becomes heavy at times after 10 am.
Monday Night: Snow. Heavy at times. Becoming lighter after 3 am.
Tuesday: Light snow ends in the morning.
Total Snow: 10-14" with some sleet mixed in. Locally higher amounts possible.
Update if needed Sunday Evening 6 pm.
Winter Storm or not for Sun Night – Monday Night? That is the question. And the computer models are supposed to be helpful tools. Well, not so much with this. The supposed best (EURO) has been bad with it: heavy snow to light snow to heavy snow to no snow to light snow. The second best has been about the same. The 3rd and 4th best are more stable but are shifting around too.
Then there is the one hardly anyone talks about, the ICON or German model. It has been amazingly consistent for the last several days. Almost uncanny to see run after run giving the same basic result. It was the only one to nail the Dec storm and the northern shift of heavy snow. It was the first one to nail the north shift this past week when it looked like it would snow on Tue. The ICON abandoned the snow idea well before other models did. It will be interesting to see how it fares with this storm.
My ideas: Snow will begin late Sunday, likely after 2 pm. Snow will continue through much of Monday. It may not snow the whole time as it could be off and on. It may be mostly light to even heavy at times. These details leading to amounts is a little early since it is about 48 hours away yet. I will issue a snow forecast Sat evening.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Cold. 28.
Sunday: Partly sunny early. Cloudy with snow arriving after 2 pm. 30.
Monday: Snow likely. 28.
Tuesday: Flurries/snow showers early. Breezy. Chilly. 33.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 34.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. 35.
Friday: Cloudy. Chance for brief snow/ice then all rain showers. 44.
Good evening. It is time to update as there are some interesting developments in the weather.
This storm set-up is not hard to forecast when it comes to getting a storm or not getting a storm. Yes, there are lots of pieces to it, but they are all large. Sometimes you need small pieces to come together to produce a large storm. This storm is large to begin with. Easy tracking. So, I am quite confident in the tracking of this system across the nation.
The details of the amount of precipitation and how much ice, if any, are the details that need to be worked out. But again, think about the Dec storm. How much snow did you get? That is a good picture to think about for now.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Cold. Flurries or snow shower early. Windy. 22.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Cold. 24.
Sunday: Cloudy. Snow develops in the afternoon. 29.
Monday: Snow likely. Any ice changes back to snow. Heavy at times. 27.
Tuesday: Periods of snow ending. Gusty wind at times. 30.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 32.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. 34.
Finally have time to be able to update. And there is something going on in the weather. First it is cold today, but nothing unusual for January. It will stay cold/chilly through much of next week. Temperatures have been rather stable. No up and down swings like some years.
But what about snow? Yea, hat white stuff. Haven’t been able to get much lately. Although we did see some snow showers this week. They were pretty while they lasted. Snow this week? There are 2 candidates.
The first you may have heard about already in the news. This comes Mon night through Tue night. Long duration storm? Yes and no. It will start Mon night, and likely not end until early Wed morning, but that does not mean it will be big. It will feature mainly light precipitation that comes in waves. It will stop at times. So a decent snow? Probably not any more than 3”. Warm air will likely once again mess it up and bring us some snow to start but then some sleet and maybe a touch of freezing rain. Snow/sleet appear to be the primary threat. Total precipitation looks to be around a half an inch at most. Give or take depending on location.
The second storm has more potential, but will in come far enough north? Right now all indications are no it will not come far enough north for a big snow. But a shift of about 150 miles would give us a heavy snow. This is not much on a 5 day forecast.
Besides those two systems, fairly typical for late January.
Sunday: Sun then clouds. Slight chance of flurries/snow shower late/overnight. 31.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Light snow develops after dark. mixes with sleet. 31.
Tuesday: Periods of light sleet/snow becoming all light snow late. 28.
Wednesday: Light snow ends by early morning. Clearing. 34.
Thursday: Cloudy. Some snow likely. 32.
Friday: Clearing skies. Cold. Windy at times. 27.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Chilly. 34.
That bigger storm stayed south of us on Friday. Obviously. The clouds that day were from that storm. I know I didn't update, as I plum ran out of time. Anyway, we are currently in the midst of a pattern flow that from the longer range (5 or more days) looks to be filled with potential for winter storms. But the flow is not coming together. It is splitting, and the northern piece is suppressing the southern.
Result for us: similar weather day after day. Some days more clouds. Some more sun. But all in all very similar. And that looks to continue through the middle of next week. The only exception might be Tue as another system tries to come up toward us. I suspect it will be pushed south, but it is possible there could be a snow shower.
A bigger system will fling a strong cold front through later next week, and that may lead to a shifting in the pattern to allow for more storminess in our area. But we shall see.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. 42.
Monday: Mix of sun and clouds. 40.
Tuesday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Slight chance for a snow shower. 39.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 42.
Thursday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. Snow/rain shower overnight. 41
Friday: Mostly cloud. Chance rain/snow showers. Turning colder. 42.
Saturday: Cloudy. Chance light snow. 33.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.