Clearing skies and sunshine today. Rather nice too. A mild start means a mild afternoon. Get out and enjoy it. Weather won't as nice the rest of the week. What does that mean? Might not be what you think:
Tues: afternoon snow/rain develops and switches to all snow. C-2"
Wed: Blustery. Cold. Snow showers and a squall possible.
Thu: Sunny. Cold. (more like winter actually)
Fri: Damp and chilly. Rain arrives. Milder.
Sat: Very warm with rain. Highs soar to 60.
Sun: Rain ends. Cooler but still mild.
Will the mild pattern end? Maybe. SE ridge is a stubborn mule. Some signs it may change, by the last week of the month, but I am not holding my breath for it.
It's the weekend. And if you were looking for some great hiking weather or some great cross country skiing, well this is not the weekend.
Saturday: Mild. But cloudy. Rain ending. Showers linger.
Sunday: Colder. Sun and clouds. (Ok for hiking and skiing if you can find some snow).
Then all eyes turn toward our Tue system. Snow? Rain? Both? I lean toward snow, but not lot. Exact timing will be key. We do not have any real winter cold air in place, so if you want snow, the earlier that Tue system arrives the better. Gives less time for ground temps to warm into the middle and maybe upper 30's. Details to come.
After that system, a cold/chilly day on Wednesday before another warm-up ensues. I am seeing a pattern here. And it does look stubborn. Might be what the winter will be like. So far it is. Can it change? Maybe. Maybe not. Right now I would say, probably not for any length of time.
But we take it one day at a time. So enjoy.
Happy New Year! It is now 2020. New year. New decade. More great blessings from God are coming our way. Cannot wait.
If you are looking for snow, you will have to wait. More rain is coming tonight through Sat night. It won't rain the whole time, but it will be a damp 48 hours. Before that a beautiful winter day. Mild highs in 40's. Now about that rainy period:
Sunday looks like a little clearing before a weak system comes in from the NW. This could bring a period of light snow early Mon (maybe just flurries). Nothing big.
A new storm will come our way late Tue. This system is interesting. It posses one of the best chances for widespread snow we've seen this season (not saying much since there have been very few). It is likely the storm will move from the southern plains to the Ohio Valley, then redevelop in Northern VA and move to just east of Cape Cod. This path has been favorable for snow in the past, but one needs cold air to be in place beforehand. That is the sticky question: It could be a cold nasty 34 degree rain or a 32 degree wet snow storm. Ice is not a concern at all. Fun, fun, fun.
Until next update, enjoy.
Forecast looks good, but an update is needed for minor adjustments. They are:
Lots of rain coming. 1" to maybe 2" in a few spots.
Any sign of snow? Maybe snow showers Tue/Tue night otherwise not until next weekend at the earliest.
Our streak of sunny days is now over. Today will be rather cloudy and cool. That is relatively speaking. It really will be seasonally mild. But in the pattern we have, its cool.
This weekend will start nice and end wet. A major storm is developing in the central US. It will bring rain, thunderstorms, and blizzard conditions to different areas. For us, we get rain as the storm approaches from the west. The rain starts late Sunday and continues on and off into Mon morning. It could get rather warm on Monday as warm air makes it way north for about 12 hours.
Colder air returns. Colder means seasonal. Nothing extreme.
Looking for snow? Might have to wait until the first weekend in Jan. That is probably the earliest we can reasonably look for a chance for snow.
If you wanted a white Christmas, well you sort of got one. It is very frosty and white outside. Yea, the frost will disappear soon, but it is white! And it will be a beautiful day. Sunny skies. Enjoy.
The rest of the week will be rather uneventful. More clouds Thu and esp Fri, which will end up being a cool, raw day. But Sat will be nice and mild. Similar to this past Mon.
Then a big storm raging over the central US with heavy rain, storms and blizzard conditions, moves east. It gives us rain on Sun and Mon. Could come in two waves. Not sure on that yet. But some heavy rain is likely. Expect more than 1" of rain. Possibly up to 2". We'll see.
After that we turn colder, and another storm is likely just into the New Year. But how that works out is not known, and won't be until the weekend system is upon us.
Have a wonderful day. God bless and enjoy this Christmas Day.
Quiet weather will rule for the next 6 days. This is good for travelers over Christmas. It will get milder, but nothing outlandish as a pacific air mass floods our area (much of nation too). When dominated by high pressure (dry not wet weather), this is important to understand, because they air masses tend to warm quite a bit in the day, yet cool off a bit at night. So the next several mornings do not be surprised to wake to frosty conditions.
The only change to forecast was to adjust today as the high clouds are thicker than first thought. The sun will be filtered quite a bit at times. The satellite pic indicates this should clear during the afternoon/evening. But we'll see.
No other changes were made at this time. Stormier weather looks to return before the New Year (note: our weather is calm now, but a major storm is pounding the SE this weekend. If that had only come further north ...).
Enjoy the quiet Christmas break.
The heavier snow showers and a couple of squalls certainly worked out. Accumulations would be highly dependent on the number of showers/squalls you got. It looks like winter and feels like winter.
The next 6 days and even through Christmas look rather boring. Not much happening to be honest. Today is about as eventful as the weather will be over the next week.
Seeing a lot of human nature this morning: excuses, little responsibility, blame and criticism. As humans we are sinful. We make errors. We need to confess them. We must take responsibility. Don't blame something or someone else. Don't pile on thinking you are any better. This is what God's Word teaches.
What am I talking about? I have read a lot of excuses this morning from forecasters about why the snow forecast was a complete disaster: computer models to severe weather down south to deeper ridging to less lift, etc, etc, etc. One excuse after the another.
Just admit it. As forecasters we messed up. Myself included. I overdid the snow. What snow? Exactly. It never came. As a forecaster I must decide what I believe will happen and then I issue that forecast. It is a guess into the future. Many times I do well. But like this case, the snow portion was wrong. I cannot blame the models. They are tools. If I misuse the tool, that is my responsibility. But in this case, I should have known.
A rule I have witnessed many times in my life, I broke. The rule is this: To get snow in a snow/ice/rain situation, you need fresh cold air. We had that Sun night. But then the evaporating snow came Mon morning (called virga) and ended by early afternoon. Nothing happened right? Wrong. Something did happen.
Our dew point temperatures (measure of moisture in air) rose several degrees from the upper 10's to the mid and upper 20's. The air was no longer fresh. It was now used. Thus when the precipitation started again, it would not have the same evaporative cooling ability like that of fresh dry air. Last evening when the radar showed it was precipitating over the house, it was. We didn't get evaporative cooling. The air cooled maybe a degree or two at the most, but only at the surface, not in the atmosphere above us as was the thinking and the models showed. Our air mass was used or stale.
Of note were the dew points in northern PA into NY state: they remained in the upper 10's. They had very little or no "virga" like we did Mon morning. The air stayed fresh and they either got some snow or are still getting snow this morning.
I used this rule as a basis for my original forecast Sun evening. But abandoned it because the snow was not reaching the ground Mon morning. So, I assumed the air was still fresh. Mistake on my part. Regardless of what the computers said. Seeing this I should have stuck with what I thought Sun night. Live and learn. Hopefully :)
The precipitation is coming as you can see from this 5:27 pm radar picture. But it is taking its sweet time. And the longer it takes the warmer the atmosphere will be by the time it gets here.
It does appear that there will be a period of snow or snow/sleet mixed (shorter duration south, longer north) at the beginning, but it will become sleet/freezing rain for much of the night prior to 3 am. After that rain with pockets of freezing rain will dominate.
The forecast looks pretty well on target. The amount of snow is the tough call. But the way chances for snow have been going this month ... I would lean low, which is what I did, but probably not low enough.
Stay safe. Have a blessed evening.
This is the 7:04 am radar shot from State College NWS. It shows light snow falling across much of central PA. But looks are deceiving. It is not snowing NE of a line from State College to Harrisburg. and SW of that line. The snow is evaporating in the dry air. This is an important sign for this evening.
Since I am off today, I will update when needed. This morning there is a need.
Why the adjustment?
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.