Three straight days of sunshine! That has not happened for a while. And to be mild too? Quite nice indeed. But clouds and precipitation are returning.
Friday Night: Snow develops around midnight and ends around sunrise as it changes to a little light rain. A light accumulation of snow is expected.
Sunday will feature more light rain but mild temperatures. Then a strong cold front moves through the area for Monday. It will be much cooler as high pressure takes over. Lots of sunshine for Tue. Then we have watch a system moving E-NE for Wed/Wed night. Could be snow/rain. Hard to tell right now.
Those saying winter is over are premature. It will snow Fri night, and perhaps the middle of next week. We will grow milder, but winter weather is not over.
Friday: Sunshine then clouds late. 42.
Friday night: Light snow develops. Changes to rain by 6 am. 1-2" snow for most.
Saturday: Light rain early. Cloudy. Some peeks of sun. 40.
Sunday: Rain. Ends by mid afternoon. 43.
Monday: Early showers. Partly sunny. Mild then turning colder. 50.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Colder. 32.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Chance snow/rain. 35.
Thursday: Cloudy. Chance rain/snow. 37.
Snow should arrive after 8 am and end around 2 pm if not before. This makes for a decent commute to and from school/work as the clean up will be relatively easy: plow it or shovel it, the rest melts off quickly as temps rise to the middle 30s.
Accumulations look good at 3-5".
This will be a fast and furious shot of snow. It will quickly increase to heavy to very heavy snow at times for 3-4 hours. And then it will taper off and end rather quickly too.
Will winter take a break? Is winter ending this week? Lots of speculation going on, and that is all it is ... speculation. Anyone who thinks winter is over, should take a deep breath and stay calm. It is not yet over.
To start, Sunday will be nice. Sunny. Then clouds roll in at night, and snow, which will be heavy at times arrives Monday after 10 am and continues for about 6 hours. A fast moving, but potent "frontal" system. A wave forms along it and becomes a powerful storm once well NE of the US.
No real cold air behind this storm. A few snow showers Tue then mild Wed with sunshine. Cold front passes on Thu. A follow up system may try to move along this front and give us some rain/snow. Hard to tell right now. Then maybe another snow/rain system Sun/Mon time frame.
Winter is not over. Several inches are possible on Monday, and then there are chances for snow/rain later in the week. We will ease out of this pattern. And I don't think it will be doing so rapidly. But since the days are getting longer, more daylight, higher sun angle, the days until spring arrives is decreasing.
Sunday: Cold morning. Mostly sunny. 33.
Monday: Snow arrives late morning. Heavy at times. 3-5" snow. Ends by 6 pm. 34.
Tuesday: Sun and clouds. Snow showers possible. 36.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Mild. 46.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Chance for rain showers. 45.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Chance for snow/rain.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. 32.
Noon Update: Storm going as expected so far. We had the moderate to briefly heavy snow this morning. Now the sporadic snow will be prevalent through 6 pm. It appears more sporadic than first thought. I was not expecting much accumulation this afternoon. Maybe 1".
Part 2 comes later this evening into Fri morning. How much comes is still questionable. I believe we will end closer 5" than the 8".
Accumulation through Friday 7 am: 5-8”.
Note: This is not a big storm. It will not dump huge amounts of snow. Yet it will snow and it will snow for awhile. It will snow lightly for the most part. 5-8" is a good storm.
Concerns: I do not feel all that confident in this forecast. Reasons:
After the storm ends by sometime Friday, we get a nice weekend. Cold, but nice. Then another storm on Monday. Wouldn’t be funny if the storm next Monday brought us more snow than these last two "bigger storms" combined? It could happen. But first things first.
Thursday: Snow. Heaviest in the morning. 26.
Friday: Periods of light snow. Storm total snow 5-8” with locally higher amounts. 32.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Cold. 26.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Cold morning. 28.
Monday: Snow likely. 34.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. 36.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 38.
We have two significant storms to deal with this week so lets take 'em one at a time.
Mon - Tue Morning: not much happening today before 3 pm. After 3 pm some spotty light rain/freezing rain will begin. This will continue and become steadier and heavier after 6 pm. Primarily freezing rain from 6 pm - 1 am. After 1 am its mainly rain with pockets of freezing rain. No sleet. No snow. Total Ice: 1/10 - 2/10 inch with higher amounts over ridges possible.
Good News is that we are not that cold to begin with. And with a mild flow of air any freezing rain will change to rain and melt off by midday tomorrow.
(Note: I really missed this one. From a snowstorm with some sleet to a sleet storm to now an ice/rain storm. Learn from it)
Wed: Nice and cold. Sunny.
Thursday: Next storm approaches. Different set up. Cold high pressure in place to or NE, unlike Mon - Tue system. This gives us a classic storm of some initial snow to sleet and freezing rain and then all rain. There are some detail questions to answer: 1) is storm in one piece or two pieces which would lead to less rain? 2) Where is the placement of the initial plume of heavy precipitation which would lead to heavy snowfall before any change to sleet? We'll hopefully know the answers by late Tue.
Cold but nice weekend coming up. Possible snow/rain Sunday night into Monday. Not a big storm though.
Monday: Cloudy. Patchy rain/freezing rain developing after 3 pm. 34.
Monday Night: Freezing rain changing to rain by 1 am at the latest.
Tuesday: Any rain ending by 6 am. Partial sunshine. 40.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Cold. 25.
Thursday: Snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain. 36.
Friday: Cloudy to partly sunny. Chance early rain shower. 37.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 28.
Sunday: Sunshine then clouds with a chance for snow/rain at night. 32.
Quick Update: Got around 2 1/4 inches of snow in the valley here. So forecast was pretty good. I was a touch high, but I debated 3-4 or 2-4. Again, not bad.
Saturday afternoon - night is an interesting call. Some snow should arrive late Sat or early Sat evening then it may change to sleet for several hours. I am not convinced of that yet, but it is possible. No freezing rain or rain. Details to come.
Mon Night - Tuesday: major storm will impact us. Not the strongest, but moist. I believe that most of the precipitation will be snow, and that some could be sleet. No freezing rain or rain.
Thu - Fri: Yet another winter storm should come are way. At this time I believe it should bring us snow, sleet, freezing rain and probably some rain. We'll see as we get closer. Got a lot to go through before we worry about this storm.
Quick lunch update.
Snow will arrive this evening after 8 pm (flurries may come before, but I think the real snow begins early tonight) and will end by 9 am tomorrow. The snow should be a light fluffy snow, easy to remove, and will be sparkly when the sun shines on it.
Total snow: 3-4" with locally higher amounts especially to our south.
Friday is looking less snowy with just a flurry or snow shower possible.
Saturday looks like a chance for snow to develop late in the day and continue into the early morning hours of Sunday. Not a big storm. A similar snow to what we have been getting the last few times.
A nice Sunday is taking shape (yea!) and a decent Monday as clouds increase ahead of what may be a much bigger storm. Yes, this looks like a mostly snow system also. Details need to be worked out.
Wed: Sunny then increasing clouds. 28.
Tonight: Snow. Light to moderate. 3-4" with locally more.
Thursday: Light snow ends. Some partial sunshine late. 30.
Friday: Clouds and sunshine. Flurry or snow shower possible. 25.
Saturday: Cloudy. Chance for light snow to develop late. 24.
Sunday: Any snow ends well before sunrise. Clearing. 30.
Monday: Sunshine then increasing clouds. Chance for snow late. 27.
Tuesday: Snow likely and maybe some sleet. Could be heavy. 26.
I hope you are enjoying winter, because if you are you will enjoy the next couple of weeks. And if you are not? Just pray for perseverance. Spring is coming in about 4 weeks or so.
We have some more snow to talk about for Tue, Wed night into Thu, Fri and maybe even Sunday. Let’s take them one at time. (Hint: if the day is not mentioned below it will be rather pleasant winter weather 😊)
That is a lot of winter in one week. On the bright side, we will not be getting the deep artic air that is dominating the central states right now. We will stay seasonally cool to chilly. But not super cold.
Monday: Sun then increasing clouds. Chilly. 28. Light snow develops after 2 am
Tuesday: Morning snow ends around 10 am. 2-4” locally higher. Some late partial sun. 34.
Wednesday: Sun then increasing clouds. 30.
Wed Night: Snow after 10 pm.
Thursday: Morning snow. 30.
Friday: Cloudy. Chance for light snow. 30.
Saturday: Partly sunny. More clouds late. Chance snow after midnight. 28.
Valentine’s Day: Cloudy. Chance snow and/or ice. 29.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.