Suedberg Church of God - Faithful Forecast

It is Friday!

2/15/2019

It's the end of the week, and the weekend is soon on its way. It is also Feb 15, meaning we are entering the second half of the month. How crazy is that? Where is the time going?

Some updates:

Saturday’s system will be a little further south. No chance for a little light snow. Increasing amounts of sunshine instead.
Sun Night/Mon system is looking more disorganized. But I am not sure of the models know how to handle this because it is a small/weak system, and it will be moving along at a fast clip. Models do not always handle this type well. As we get closer to Sunday, I expect to see a little more organization. Yet, this will still only be a light to moderate system (Approximately .20” – .40” melted precipitation). It should be mostly snow, but some rain could sneak in also.
Next Wed system is looking as expected. Moist. Details need to be worked out, but not until Monday. It still looks like the storm we had this past Tuesday, but probably weaker and perhaps a tough colder. Again, we’ll know more by Monday.

A mild/warm day today, then colder again through the middle of next week. No big snowstorms, but more of what we have had for much of the winter. Some mild/warm days, some cold days, some rain, some snow, and some ice.

Have a great Friday. Enjoy.

More Winter To Come

2/13/2019

Post Storm Comment: I should not have been so pessimistic early yesterday. There was touch of freezing rain at 7 am, depressing me initially, but it quickly reverted to sleet and stayed sleet for most of the day. With reports to the NWS from our area, and my own measurement, the forecast for 3” did verify (snow and sleet combined) but 5” was too much. A 2-4” forecast would have been perfect. So, over-all my forecast wasn’t too bad.

Sun and clouds today, with a couple heavy snow showers. The forecast for tomorrow is looking good.

Some more significant adjustments to Fri and beyond are needed, however.

If you recall from an earlier discussion, I spoke of a possible “twist” to the forecast. It is happening. Instead of a bundling of energy and giving us a strong rainstorm for Fri, we will be getting two systems. One Fri and one Sat, and then as a result we get another Sun/Mon with the largest saved for next Wed (approximately).

Fri: This will bring a milder surge of air with temperatures jumping into the upper 40s, even 50 in some places. A few showers are likely, but certainly not a rainstorm. Colder air rushes back in Fri night.
Sat: a second system rides the boundary between the leaving warm air and arriving cold air. Will it impact us? That is the question. If we do get anything, we will likely be on the northern edge with only a little light snow.
Mon: Originally with the strong Fri system scenario this storm was crushed south and was very weak. But that has changed. Moderate snow looks likely. Question: does it stay all snow, or does it mix with sleet/freezing rain? Probably. Since that has been the habit this winter.
Wed: A larger storm looms. This will likely be in the mode of many we’ve had this year: snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. As we get closer, we can figure out how much of what. But a mixed bag of winter precipitation is a good starting point.

The calls of “winter is over” were premature. The rest of this month and the first part of March look to be stormy. Some will have snow, some will not. But winter is certainly not over.

Enjoy.

Early Morning Update

2/12/2019

Second Update: 7:00 am. I have light freezing rain/tiny sleet out my door. It will likely switch back and forth between sleet and freezing rain during the morning. It should still change to a cold miserable plain rain this afternoon. Total snow is what you have plus maybe a coating of sleet on top. A little disappointed in the forecast. Got the timings right, if that dry air had stayed a little further away ...

Enough for today. Have to begin working.

As of 5:30 am it may be snowing very lightly or not at all at your house. What happened?

What happened was the number one thought I had on possible adjustments in my discussion yesterday. The thought of dry air from the big high feeding in and evaporating the snow as it fell. Well, that happened.

Notice the lack of precipitation in the eastern 1/3rd of the area ... our area of the radar this morning at 5:54 am.

Now, I did expect light snow, but not a complete void. This is taking away 1" or so of the expected snow. The 3-5" of snow/sleet total may still be OK if the approaching heavier precipitation starts as snow again and not sleet. I am always hesitant in a snow changing to sleet situation, where the snow stops and then it starts up again, what will it be? Snow or sleet? More times than not it will be sleet and/or freezing rain.

Will this time be an exception because of the strength of the that big high? Maybe. Regardless of what it does, sleet and freezing rain is on its way. Stay safe.

Winter Slop Storm #3

2/11/2019

That is right. This is slop storm #3.

The first was the middle of Nov (8” snow, some ice then rain), the second was middle of January (3” snow, ice, then rain), and now the middle of Feb we have #3.

A rather typical forecast for this kind of storm = a few to several hour period of snow, then sleet/freezing rain, followed by all rain. Conclusion = horrible to clear since it will be heavy and wet.

I feel confident in the forecast in getting 3-5” of snow and sleet added together. The NWS records sleet accumulation as snow accumulation in its record keeping. So, for example 1” of sleet will be recorded as 1” snow. Therefore, I am including both in my 3-5”.

Couple thoughts as to what could go wrong:

Dry air:
1. Dry air from the big high pressure to our north, could evaporate up to several hours of light snow during the night, thus reducing our snow by about 1” or so.
2. Deep moisture will overcome the dry air from the big high more rapidly and moderate snow breaks out sooner, thus increasing our snow by 1” or so.
Heavy Precipitation:
1. Slows the transition from snow to sleet by an hour or two, thus increasing our snow by 1” or so.
2. Does not develop until the snow transitions to sleet, reducing our snow by 1” or so.

After this storm we do have another storm for Fri, but that is looking wet, and very little chance for white, unless a possible twist develops along the coast, causing the rain to end as snow. Right now, I doubt that will happen, but I will keep an eye on it. There will be another storm the following week that looks rather wintery.

Until then, enjoy.

A One Two Punch

2/9/2019

We have a one-two punch coming. The first is more of a gentle tap, the second is more of a punch. Let’s take them one at a time.

Sun Night – Monday Morning:

On and off light snow develops after 7 pm Sunday evening and ends by 8 am Monday. This will accumulate 1-2”.
Some very light snow/flurries may continue off and on for parts of Monday. But it won’t amount much of anything.

Monday Evening – Tuesday Evening:

Snow develops after 5 pm Monday evening. It may be heavy at times. I expect about 3-5” by 7 am Monday.
Snow changes to sleet by 7 am Monday. The sleet may continue for several hours accumulating up to 1” of the little ice balls. Traveling will become terrible if this does happen.
Sleet should then change to freezing rain by mid-afternoon at the latest, and then to all rain before ending in the late evening.

Again, this is what I see as of late Sat afternoon.

It really is a straight forward forecast. We’ve this many times. You start with what happens on average (amounts of snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain) with a storm lifting into the Great Lakes, and cold air stuck on the east side of the mountains. Then you take note of what is above or below average (moisture source, strength of High and low pressure, jet flow) and then adjust up or down from the averages. Can’t forecast what you want. Must forecast what looks to be coming. Sorry, but this is not going to be a classic heavy snowstorm. But it is a winter storm.

The final call for the Bigger Storm will be given by Noon on Monday.

Until then, enjoy.

Winter Returning

2/8/2019

Not Good. The last 24 hours of forecasting have not been so good on my part. First, sunshine yesterday and temperatures soared to near 50. I had drizzle, fog with a high near 42. Ugh. Second, I had temperatures rising overnight to near 50 this morning. It is 42. Ugh. Should have switched the time periods and I could have been spot on!

At least I got the rain right. But that was the easy part of the forecast. I must say, I am very surprised that the temperatures did not at least hold steady last night, instead of falling. Hmm.

But the rain is about over. Winter is returning. And we have some winter precipitation to talk about too.

Light snow from weak system on Sun night – early Mon morning. Nothing big just a coating to 2” of snow.
Snow redevelops Mon after dark and continues light to mod into Tue morning where it may become heavy for a time until around midday. Then sleet comes in and it may sleet for a few hours. Then some freezing rain and maybe some regular rain before ending Tuesday evening. The times may shift around as we get closer to the event itself. But the basic picture seems straightforward.
Another significant storm looks to impact us Fri- Sun. It could be a snow/ice/rain situation or all snow depending on the track.

The pattern we are entering will be loaded with storms, moisture, and cold air. How they come together will determine whether it’s a lot of snow, a lot of rain, a lot of ice, or some sort of combination of all 3. I do know this … it will not be boring.

Until then, enjoy.

Bonus for Today

2/7/2019

The system that brought the rain yesterday/last night and the system coming later today/tonight into Fri are not linked as was previously expected. There is a bigger break between them meaning less low clouds, less drizzle,and the possibility of more peeks of sunshine.

What does this mean? Warmer temperatures. The more sun the warmer we get.

Very limited sunshine = upper 40's
Partly sunny = low 50's
Some big breaks of sun = mid to upper 50's.

Yup. A bonus. Bit surprising ... but not complaining.

Chilly. Lots of Rain. Then Winter Returns.

2/6/2019

Although the warm idea was correct. I was way too cool for the “warm” days of Mon – Tue. To those who asked if we might reach 60 Mon or Tue … and I said “No. Not here. Maybe Philly.” I say Sorry. Got that one wrong. It reached 65 in Reading yesterday. No forecast anywhere showed that. But a miss is a miss. At least I had warm sunshine in the forecast 😊

But I should have seen it coming. The arctic air left. Pacific air moved in. Pacific air warms up nicely but will chill down at night and give fog/frost in the morning. This is what we had. Sunday revealed it. But I wasn’t thinking. Live and learn.

Now onto the battles for Wed – Fri:

How much rain do we get Wed - Fri? A soaking 1-2” looks likely.
Ice: Later Wed afternoon/evening pockets of freezing rain are possible in colder valleys and points to our NE into the Poconos. 99% of it will be rain.
Cold Air Damming: Yup. Our new chilly air will become stuck behind the mountains to our west. Temperatures will stay primarily in the 30’s today, tonight and the first part of tomorrow. The temperatures will slowly rise into the 40’s Thu.
Warm Air Invasion: yes, the warm air does appear to invade our area after midnight Fri and last until mid-morning Fri before cold air returns. An 8-hour period of warmth.

After Friday winter returns. I’ll have more on that later this week. But first we have some serious weather to contend with. What I mean is that areas in New England will have some serious icing, and some significant flooding could occur in the Ohio River Valley as they get 5” or more of rain over the next 48 hours.

Until then, anything you hear about next week is mostly guess work and noise. Just know that chances for snow and/or rain will be there. More details by Friday. Enjoy.

Beautiful and Warm. Winter Returns the Weekend.

2/4/2019

A beautiful day is in store today with sunshine and warm temperatures. A great mid-winter day. Another nice day tomorrow, although it will be getting colder. Wed/Thu will not be so nice. Damp and raw. Then a warm start to Fri with temperatures into the 50s to start the day, but then falling as winter returns.

(Please note this is not a 5 day warm spell. We will have 2 warm days (Mon/Tue), 1 seasonal day (Wed), 1 mild-sort-of day (Thu), a 12 hour warm up (early Fri), then winter returns. This is not a 5 day warm spell. Wed/Thu will not feel warm (unless you're from Barrow Alaska). This is why I dislike 5 day temperature anomaly maps. Two and a half warm days make the other 2 and a half days look warm when the are not.)

There a few adjustments and challenges to the forecast:

Adjustment: I wondered is the mini surface ridge would keep our atmosphere more stable and temperatures a little lower than forecast for today. Yesterday was the key. Would Sunday be warmer or cooler than expected. It was a little warmer. So, the min ridge is not keeping us cooler. So, I had to increase the temperatures for today.
Adjustment: I increased the temperatures on Tue due to the timing of the cold air arrival. Since it’s a little slower, we have time to rise to 50 or above for a shot time.
Challenge: How quickly does the light rain arrive on Wed? The quicker it is the better the chance for some freezing rain during the afternoon/evening.
Challenge: How quickly does the warm air move in on Thursday? Typically, the cool air holds on longer than the computer models indicate. Sometimes much longer. They do not handle cold air damming situations all that well. I suspect they are too fast again. But the warm air will win out just after midnight Fri.

After a warm Fri morning, winter returns. Our first chance for snow (moderate size) would be Sun night into Mon morning. With an active storm track coast to coast, and with plenty of cold air available, chances for snow, snow/ice, and/or snow/ice/rain will be repeated.
But before then we have a beautiful day to enjoy (even if only for an hour or so after school/work, just get out and enjoy it).

Rising out of the Deep Freeze

2/2/2019

You must respect the power of clear skies and snow cover, especially when you live in a valley. When you do, always go lower on the temperatures than computer model guidance. That is why I made the comment I did on Thu about temperatures dropping faster overnight.

Result? Well, we just had our 3rd morning in a row of being below zero. The last 4 mornings have been quite something: 1, -12, -7, -2. Snow cover makes a big difference. Same will hold true tonight (not below zero but mid teens in deeper valleys which is about 5 - 10 degrees below computer guidance).

This weekends forecast is well in hand, so I will skip to Monday and beyond for discussion.

Monday: A mild day. Only question is due to a narrow wedge of high pressure over our area, do we rise to 53? Or do we stay cooler, like 45, because the atmosphere is stable, with coolest air at the surface?
Tuesday: Front passes through early. But models notorious at rushing colder air in too fast for our area. Do we reach 50 before temperatures start falling?
Wednesday: Much colder. Dry daytime. Freezing rain/sleet arrive overnight.
Thursday: Raw and damp with any freezing rain/sleet changing to all rain early. Rain most of the day on and off. A soaking rain of 1” or more is likely. Yuk.
Friday: Q1: Do we get into the warm air before the arctic front passes through? If yes, then 55 or higher is possible. But if not, then 45 is about it.

In summary our “warm” spell is going to consist of two mild/warm days: Mon, Tue. Then two seasonal days: Wed, Thu. Ending with a mild/warm Fri. Then its back to cold. Sounds like a typical mild winter break if you ask me. Nothing shocking nor noteworthy. Happens every year in some form. No, winter is not over.