Not sure how I messed this up, but with a trough lifting out of our area, and cold air moving away, why I would forecast highs in the upper 30's for today?  Not sure what I was thinking. So here is a better picture: 

Tuesday: becoming partly sunny ... 45. 
Wednesday: partly sunny ... 46 
Thursday: Sun then clouds ... 48

Back to work. Enjoy! 

I am sure this headline does not warm many a hearts. But it is what I see. No real warm weather coming. Of course it is the middle of Nov and it should be cool. But the opening days of this month have been very cold. A top 5 or top 10 cold opening to the month, historically speaking. Ex: Our avg temperature for today is near 50. We will warm to the middle 40's and it will feel nice and 'warm' by comparison. 

Colder on Sat as a big arctic high pressure moves across southern Canada. A large coastal storm will be battering the Carolina's over the weekend, and this system will move N along the coast and likely bring us some rain for Mon into early Tue. Some snow showers could mix in by Tue morning. But I don't expect much of anything at this time. 

We will dry out for Wed then, but a warm-up is not coming anytime in the next 6 days. 

Enjoy.  

To All Our Veterans: Thank You! 

Today will be a nice day for most of us. Some sunshine early through the high clouds, and milder temps with highs into the low to mid 50’s. Not bad at all. Fairly seasonal with a touch of mild tossed in. But it won’t last. Big changes come tonight.

The frontal system coming, which looked like it had potential to give us our first widespread snowfall of the year, will give the northern Ohio Valley, NW PA and the NW half of NY and northern New England a good dumping of heavy snow. But for us, a sweeping line of light rain, changing to light snow is about it.

Like last Thu, how much precipitation is behind the front will be key to how much snow there really is to fall and maybe whiten the ground. Right now, most of the moisture is behind the front. But will it last?  I think so. But there are some inhibiting factors in getting a nice snowfall (>2):

• The trough is leaning forward. We call this positively tilted. It typically does not bring much in the way of snow, because there is no mechanism to maintain moisture behind the front and produce heavy snow.  There are exceptions, but they are rather unusual.
• Our warm start. Climatology tells us that changing rain to snow when it starts in the 40’s is very difficult to do. It can happen, but it is very rare.

Because of this, I suspect, that at best this could be a ‘white rain’ situation Tue morning. The moisture behind the front is supportive of seeing snow, but the warm initial temps, and mild ground temps argue for any snow that falls will melt on contact. Thus “white rain.”

The ridge tops have the best chance of seeing any snow stick to the colder surfaces. At the most a slushy ½” – 1” might occur in the highest elevations. I really am not too excited about snowfall with this set up

What could change this? A stronger than expected impulse energizes the front east of the mtns, almost producing convective snow. This would provide a burst of heavy snow for 2-3 hours from 7 am – 10 am Tue. This is highly unlikely. But it is possible. Maybe 5% chance or less!

After this its cold. Snow flurries, and a snow shower or two is possible Tue into Wed morning. There could be some heavier show showers around too. They could whiten the ground also. But you cannot predict where they will fall.
Cold Wed and into Thu. A weak system, acting more like a warm front, will move in Thu and bring a chance for a snow shower or two as warmer air returns, relatively speaking that is. Instead of highs around freezing, we will warm into the 40’s. Still cool, but much nicer to the middle of Nov.
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That is about all. If you want snow, drive to Rochester NY. They’ll get 6” or more. If not, enjoy the milder day today.
 

The weather has people talking about snow next week. I would love to see some snow, esp. since it will turn even colder next week. But I cannot forecast what I wish. I must forecast what I think will happen. And what I think is flurries and snow showers? Yes. Accumulating snowfall? No. 

The system for next Mon night into Tue looks similar to what we just had Thu/Thu night. The pattern is too progressive, and it will not allow for a more significant storm to develop at this time. 

Snow showers and flurries are likely from off the Great Lakes for Tue into Wed. So, we are likely to see some snow. Just not widespread accumulating snow. Now could things change? Sure. But I doubt it. 

That's about all. 

Enjoy. 

Very cold weather is on the way starting Thu night and lasting through the weekend.  It will feel like winter and it may even look a little like winter too. Details below:

1. Tuesday – Wednesday: Seasonally cool with clouds and sun on Tue and more sun on Wed. Dry.
2. Thursday: starts off nice, but clouds rapidly come in. Light rain develops late. This strong front will have wave of low pressure on it. This will enhance the light rain and snow (to our north) along the front. It will not be a strong storm. But it will be strengthening as it approaches and moves away.
3. Thursday Night: Rain should continue for our area, with it possibly mixing with or changing to snow before ending around midnight. Greatest chance for snow is found in the mountains to our north and north east. Details on this are still sketchy.
4. Fri – Sat: Winter. Cold. Windy at times. Flurries are possible Fri. Highs in the 30’s and lows well down into the 20's or colder if winds die, esp. Sat night.
5. Sun: Could start off with temps around 20. But lots of sunshine. Turning a little milder.

A winter-like preview this Fri – Sun and even more cold is coming next week with another possible chance for seeing a little snow. 

Enjoy. 

We are entering a chilly stretch here. Chillier still tomorrow (Sun) and then we "warm up" to seasonal highs in the 50's by Tue/Wed. A little cooler Thu and much colder over the following weekend. But what is this about rain and snow? 

A strong system will be organizing over the southern plains states midweek. It will move NE toward our area at the same time a push of very cold air (winter-like) will be pushing SE. Timing of the arrival of cold air and moisture from the storm will be key as to what we get. For ex: 

1. Storm is earlier, cold is late = a soaking rain. No cold air to support snow. 
2. Cold is earlier, storm is late = sprinkles or flurry as its all pushed south. Cold air overwhelms doesn't allow storm to develop. 
3. Cold and storm time just so = rain possibly changing to snow for us; rain to the south, snow to the north. 

What will we get?  I would plan on rain, with snow north. Hard to change rain to snow around here when you start with temps in the 40's. If we start off in the 30's ... well then it does happen. But I just don't see it at this time.

I do see us seeing some snow flurries and even a snow shower Fri - Sat of this upcoming week. 

​Enjoy.  

Update 9 am: 

Light mist/drizzle will continue this morning, but more rain is coming. We could get some heavy showers midday then another "break" late afternoon into the early evening. Then heavy rains return with the possibility of some very heavy thunderstorms. If storms materialize, flash flooding of flood prone areas is very possible.

Strong winds develop with front and behind it tonight.

Enjoy. 
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What does that headline mean?  Glad you asked. 

If you think back the last few weeks, you'd realize that we've stayed in the same kind of temperature regime the whole time. Highs in the 60's for most days. Lows about 45 - 55 with a few exceptions. But all in all, a static pattern. A holding pattern. That is about to end. 

This next storm. A big wet one, will take us down a notch. Starting Sat highs will reach 40-50 and drop to 30-40 at night. And a warm-up will bring highs into the 50's. Instead of going back into the 60's, we're more likely to slide even colder. Nov is not looking warm in the first half. 

What will this "Notching Down Storm" bring? 

• Rain. Lots of it. 1.75" - 2.25" widespread. To be honest I think I am being conservative here. Some locales will likely exceed 3". 
• Localized flooding: Obviously leaves will create issues for storm drains. Other than that the usual low lying areas, ponding of water on roads is expected. Rivers and streams will rise quite a bit.  
• Wind: Lots of it after the front crosses Thur overnight/Fri morning. 
• Cold: at first it will still be relatively mild Fri morning. The cold air will filter in during the day and overnight. The cold will then be reinforced by a weak system passing by to our north on Sat night. 

Enjoy it. You cannot stop it. So, enjoy it instead. 

A nice little bonus yesterday: More sunshine than expected boosted afternoon temps to 70. Very mild indeed. It was welcome after all the heavy rain in the morning. 

We have some beautiful weather today: sunshine and mid 60's. Then sadly some low clouds invade with the onshore flow of winds off the ocean. This will make for a darker and cloudier day Tue. It should stay dry. Maybe a misty feel to the air at worst. 

Wednesday ought to stay mostly cloudy. But some partial sun is possible but the wind flow will become more SW and that ought to boost our temps back into the 60's. 

Then the last of our series of rainstorms begins overnight Wed, Thu and ends by very early Fri.  We are talking about heavy rain, winds, and much colder conditions afterward. Two concerns with this storm: 

1. Flooding: We have become wet again. The ground is wet. The streams are running higher. So localized flooding of your flood prone areas is quite possible. Clogged storm drains due to fallen leaves is another threat to consider. But widespread stream/river flooding is not likely at this time. 1.5 - 2" rain is not enough to cause that. (4"+ widespread might, but I don't see that happening). 
   
2. Winds: after the rain, our ground will be saturated and with strong gusty NW winds, there could be a concern for toppling trees. Again, not a big threat. But it could happen esp. when ground is wet and softer.
   

Behind this rainstorm ... it grows much colder. Highs on Fri will stay mild as it will likely be above 60 at midnight, but then the temps fall off into the 50's and hold there for most of the day. Saturday, with high pressure in control, and winds have died, temperatures will only rise into the mid and upper 40's. A freeze is looking likely for Sun morning.