​The sensational headlines are coming fast and furious. And the focus is on “Heat Index” because those numbers are higher and make people think about how terrible the heat is. Yet, we are not likely to set any records this weekend. In other words, we’ve been this hot before. It’s summer in PA. It gets hot from time to time.
Some notes on this:

1. I am not downplaying the heat. Be smart. Stay refreshed. Drink lots of water. Take breaks. But historically, this heat is not at all unprecedented. In July 2011 we had 5 days of near 100-degree highs. We may not even have one this time.  
2. Some forecasts are likely overstating the heat index for headlines. Sorry to be cynical, but I believe it to be true. Forecasters know that the American models often overstate dew point temperatures (Note: Euro, French, and German all show lower dew points due to point #3).    Widespread dew points in the upper 70's to 80 simply don’t happen here, esp. with point #3. But higher dew points mean higher heat index = headlines.
3. A west wind is likely to develop Sat as a W-E frontal boundary will be to our north. A west wind blowing down the Allegheny Mtns warms and dries as it descends. As it grows warmer it begins to rise leading to a mixing of the air. This leads to higher temperatures, but lower dew points. Seen it many times. Suspect this will happen again.
4. This heatwave may start with a barely reaching 90 on Fri and then on Sun if that boundary to our north does slip south enough, we may not reach 90 on Sun.

 
So be careful. Be smart. We will survive. We will live to see another day. This is not a death ridge. This is not the apocalypse. It is weather doing its thing. It gets hot in the summer.

(Side thought: We will avg about 10 degrees above avg on Sat. Lots of headlines coming out about the danger. Now in Jan, if its 10 degrees below avg (25 for high, 8 for a low) what headlines would be there? None. Except for “cold”. In other words, it gets cold in Jan. Just like in July. It gets hot.)

Our heatwave will end Monday with showers and storms into Tue. Much cooler next week.

Stay safe. And enjoy.

There has been a bit of talk about some ROASTING heat coming our way. At first it was to be Tue – Fri of this week. Well … that disappeared. It will be warm. Like summer. Typical 80’s and nights in the 60’s to 70 in your warmer spots. Humid too. Yup. Like summer.

Now my hot dogs roast over a nice campfire. But for people to roast in a widespread fashion from a heatwave in the NE ... not yet. At least I don't think so. Lets get back to the heat and when it is now supposed to turn roasting hot. 

Now the roasting heat is coming next weekend: Fri – Sun. Not sure if I totally agree. I rejected the first heatwave notion, and I may reject this other one too. But this one is plausible. I am not sold on it yet. I do believe once the tropical remains of Barry move through our area by Fri morning, a warm surge of air will come east. If a west wind develops at the surface, and the air mixes it out (becomes less humid during the day by bringing dry air from the upper levels of the atmosphere allow air to heat more. Dry air gets hotter than humid air so drying out is important for getting higher temperatures), we would have some really hot temperatures in the middle and upper 90’s for Fri – Sun.

Maybe.

I don’t think the air will mix like some are thinking = less hot.

I do think the air will stay very humid due to the rains that are coming on Thu = less hot.

It will still be summer “hot” just not roasting hot … IMHO.

Until then, a nice stretch of weather will continue through Tue. Lots of sunshine. Dry air to start, then more humid on Tue. Chance for a shower or storm on Wed before the deep tropical moisture comes in for a very humid Thu with some heavy showers and storms around.
​
Enjoy. 

Not a lot to say, except that the heavy rain Sun night (last night) was very poorly forecast. By myself, by others, and by the models. No indication of heavy rain was present, until Sun when one could observe what was going on. Not much to say. Weather is not always "predictable" 

This week. After today's rain, a nice week ahead. Typical summer weather: sunshine, warm temps, and some thunderstorms thrown in for Thu. Those storms could pack a punch with gusty winds and heavy rain. Signal is there for heavy rain and severe storms. We'll see on Thu how it all develops. 

The rest of the week looks mostly sunny and dry. Warm too. Highs will be in the 80's and approach 90 Wed, Thu and possibly over the weekend also. But keep in mind. This is the hottest time of the year. Our avg high ranges from 85-87 degrees for the most part. So a 90 degree reading is essentially ... normal. 

Enjoy

The Fourth of July Celebrations throughout the nation typically involve fireworks. And we will have some: man-made and natural. And we all know which will win out if they happen the same time. hopefully, they won't. 

Not a lot to say except that we will have typical summer weather: warm to hot, humid with chances for showers an storms. Some of which could drop a lot of rain. But I do not see any "washouts" or all day rains coming. There will be plenty of dry time as well. 

​Enjoy. 

I am back from vacation. It was fantastic spending serious time with my wife and kids while exploring the SW US: Grand Canyon, Sequoia National Park, Mammoth Lakes, Great Salt Lake, Arches National Park and the Colorado Rockies. A memorable trip. 

Now, it's catch up time. The forecast will be updated in full Monday. Tonight is just a quick one. 

Another round of storms will be coming through this evening (7 - 8 pm). Heavy rain, gusty winds are likely in any storms. After that very nice for a couple of days. 

Sunday: Cooler. Partly to mostly sunny. Maybe a shower. 77.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Nice. 82. 

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for showers and heavy thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. 86.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for a shower or a storm. 88.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny early then showers and thunderstorms are likely in afternoon/evening. 88. 

Full Update Monday. Until then enjoy 

Time for a break. Its been wet. Too wet. Now for a cooler, drier change for a few days before more wet weather arrives early next week.  
Speaking a next week, we could warm up too with temperatures becoming more summer like: mid to upper 80S. But thats not until Thu or Fri ... a week away. 

Today: 77 ... showers ending. Less humid, esp by late afternoon.  
Saturday: 76 ... mostly sunny. 
Sunday: 79 ...sunny.
Monday: 80 ... sunshine then showers and storms. Some with heavy rain. 
Tuesday: 78 ... showers and storms
Wednesday: 81 ... sun and clouds. Slight chance for a shower.
Thursday: 85 ... sunshine. Warm. 

Enjoy the nice dry weekend and don't forget the Lord in all you do. Do it all for Him. 

Sunday: 78 ... showers and storms
Monday: 78 ... showers and storms
Tuesday: 77 ... showers and storms 
Wednesday: 77 ... showers and storms
Thursday-Saturday: 80 ... chance showers and storms

Note: a stagnant pattern will bring humid and seasonal conditions to the area.  Every day will feature showers and storms. Some will have heavy rain. Total rain by next Sat could range from 2" to as much as 5" with localized higher smounts. Flash flooding threat will increase throughout the week. 

Good news: no drought. No dangerous heat waves. No biblical plagues of flies, frogs, etc. 

Enjoy