Not much of an update this morning as the forecast from two days ago is still looking good. A full update will be on tomorrow. 

Today: Partly sunny then showers/storms are likely. Any storm could be severe with hail, damaging winds and perhaps even a tornado. The set up is one where severe weather is likely. But not everyone will get hit with it. Those what do will know it. 

​The one limiting factor?  The clouds early and the mid-afternoon arrival of storms limits the amount of developing instability in the atmosphere caused by the sunshine.   

Similar set-up for later Sat/Sat night. 

Enjoy. 

Two things this early Mon morning. 

1) A very impressive display of lightning, thunder, heavy rain, and wind yesterday. Lots of power outages. We were out for 12 hours. A tornado warning also. Lots of rain. But amazingly my backyard was spared the worst rain. We only got about 1.33" rain. I know many got a lot more than that. 

​2) A very bad temperature forecast for yesterday on my part. About 10 degrees ... terrible. At least I mentioned shower and/or thunderstorm chances. But 77 when it reached the middle 80's?  Not good. 

But we move on for today and the rest of the week. 

• Today: lowering the temperatures and the chances for rain. The lead trough was much stronger than anticipated, thus leading to more storms yesterday, and stealing away the convergence to produce showers and storms with the actual cold front today.  
• Tuesday and Wednesday: Much cooler. Lots of sunshine. Nice breeze. Highs near 67 Tue and 70 Wed. 
• Wed night: Warm front moves through with showers and a thunderstorm. 
• Thursday: Warm. More humid. Near 80 or higher. Showers/storms likely in the evening/overnight. Some could be stronger/severe. 
• Friday: Cooler. Much like Tue/Wed. As warm front advances overnight yet again. 
• Saturday: Much like Thu with warmer, more humid conditions. 

This pattern is going to be quite active. The boundary between cool and warm to very warm will bounce back and forth this week and next weekend. Over-all the warmth will win out for the week, as it will be a mild to warm week. 

Enjoy your Monday. 

Forecasting the weather is fun. And challenging. A couple of days ago, the coming pattern appeared to be showing that we would have showers each day for Fri - Sun. At least a decent chance. But we weren't into that mini-pattern yet. So it was all possibly. Now that we are into the very beginning of this mini-pattern it is easy to see what we are really dealing with. 

Like a doctor looking at an X-ray. They see it, but won't really know until surgery ... that is they see it with their own eyes. 

This is like that. Now that I can see what we're dealing with, the forecast needs adjusted. For the better. 

• Friday: Mostly sunny. Slight chance for a shower. Not likely though. 
• Saturday: Mostly sunny. Dry. Pleasant. 
• Sunday: Mostly sunny then showers/thunderstorms likely. Humid. 
• Monday: Partly sunny. Warm. Humid. Shower or storm likely. 
• Tue/Wed: Cooler and mostly sunny. 

That is all. Enjoy. 

Sunshine! 

It will feel great. Unfortunately, a dry stretch of weather does not appear probable at this time. Showers are in the forecast every day through Sunday. A frontal boundary will linger near our area providing the focus for showers and a few thunderstorms. Where the boundary sets up and how it moves could result in some big changes in the forecast, but I feel confident through Saturday.  Sunday and Monday less so.

Dailies:

• Today: Sunny then more clouds increase. Showers likely overnight.
• Thursday: driest day of the week it looks. Clouds with a brief early shower. Then partly to mostly sunny.
• Friday: Chance for showers and a thunderstorm early then later in the day again. Milder.
• Saturday: Frontal boundary nearby provides clouds and shower chances throughout the day.
• Sunday: Warm front tries to lift north of us. If it does we could soar to near 80. I think we warm but not that much. Shower and a thunderstorm are possible.
• Monday: Believe the warm air finally wins out and temperatures rise to near 80 or even above.

​The big surge of very warm 80’s for Sat has crashed and burned as expected. I think the bug surge for Sun will do the same. But Mon/Wed next week could see some nice summer-like warmth. Esp. Mon and Wed. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tue and Wed as well.

Enjoy. 

Well, unfortunately Mother's Day was chilly and very wet (1.91" here at my house). It was a great day to gather in with the church and worship God, and for other indoor activities. Today will be another winner for indoor activities. But there is a difference!  The bulk of the steadiest rain will be this afternoon, unlike yesterday when the bulk of  the steady rain was in the morning.  All in all, big deal ... 

Tuesday will offer some limited improvement. A little warmer, but still very cool. Still a shower or two is likely. 

Wednesday looks rather nice. Some sunshine and temperatures back into the 60's. 

Thursday, will begin with clouds and some very early morning showers with a heavy downpour possible. Then it becomes partly sunny with temperatures into the 60's again. 

Friday is probably dry, but one cannot total rule out a shower. Afternoon temperatures reach into the lower 70's. 

Saturday is an interesting day. The GFS is touting a summer-like day of middle 80's for a high and even upper 80's for Sunday. No other model shows that. If we get a preview of summer it is more likely to occur next Monday or Tuesday. Not Saturday. I think there is the chance for a shower or thunderstorm for Sat with partly sunny skies. A warm front should be off to our SW and will try to push north but will fail. 

Until then stay dry, and warm. Enjoy. 

The weather for Mother's Day is looking rather lousy. No other way to state it: Lousy. Rainy, drizzly with temperatures in the 40's. Monday looks about the same. Maybe a couple degrees milder. Yuk. 

At least we have a half-way decent Friday coming up. Showers overnight tonight into Fri morning, then some sunshine and milder temperatures into the lower 70's. More showers and possibly a thunderstorm could pop up in the evening. 

Saturday looks nice with a refreshing breeze, partial sun and cooler temperatures in the 60's. 

Clouds then increase Sat night and rain arrives by early Sun morning. The steadiest is likely during the morning, with light rain/drizzle likely in the afternoon. More rain arrives Sun night into Mon. The rain tapers to showers Mon morning, then the showers end by Midday Tue. These three days will be very chilly. Might need some heat to keep out the chilly damp air. 

There could be some improvement toward warmer drier weather around the end of next week. Maybe even a nice ridge to give us summer like weather for more than a day. But I am skeptical at this time that this may not work out. But time will tell.  Until then. enjoy Fri and Sat outdoors if possible. Then plan some indoor activities and thank God for your mom, grandma, or who ever "mothered" you!   

Fog and low clouds early then sunshine and warm temperatures this afternoon. Maybe a shower or a weak thunderstorm this evening. Nothing too significant. 

With high pressure to our N and NE for Wed and Thu we will get a cool onshore flow of air off the ocean. This will keep the cool air trapped in our region for those days. A warm front will try to lift north on Thursday leading to some drizzle or a few showers during the day, and becoming likely overnight. Warmer with some sunshine Fri but a likelihood  of showers and a thunderstorm will develop for Fri afternoon/evening.

Saturday looks rather nice over-all: Breezy, cooler, but pleasant. 

Sunday could feature a significant rainstorm approaching. Think of last Sunday and you get a good picture of what it could be like. Timing could be different, but wet and cool to chilly is looking likely. Not the nicest Mother's Day to say the least. 

That is all for now. Enjoy. 

Tight schedule this weekend. No real big changes. Wet tonight and tomorrow then nice for a couple of days. Wetter again toward the end of the week. 

Have a great weekend. Enjoy. 

I said in the my last couple of updates that there would be challenges ahead and potentially some big changes that could occur in the forecast. Those words are coming true. 

Today, Wed, initially looked warmer than Tue. Then about the same. Now much cooler. Thu still looks warm, but Fri could turn out a lot like today (Wed). By the time the weekend rolls around the challenges become a little easier. 

Daily details: 

• Wed (Today): cloudy, cool. Highs near 60. Maybe a shower. 
• Thu: Sun and clouds. Much warmer. Highs near 78, with some reaching 80 or 81 (maybe high with enough sun). Showers and thunderstorms are very possible late in the afternoon. 
• Fri: A lot like today IF THE FLOW COMES OFF THE OCEAN. This is not certain. NYC will get that flow as will coastal NE NJ. But will it back far enough west to impact us?  I Think we'll be on the edge. This gives us some cooler air but not the full effect. Therefore I am predicting highs near 66. Showers are likely as is a thunderstorm. However, thunderstorms are more likely in areas to our west, with weakening as they come east due to our more stable ocean air. 
• Sat - Sun: low pressure moves along Friday's cold front, and brings widespread showers/periods of rain from Sat afternoon- early Sunday morning. Could be a soaking rain. 

Until next time. Enjoy the day the Lord has made.