Forecast is pretty well set. Very humid the next few days, tropical rains start on Mon night and continue into Tue afternoon. After that, cooler, less humid air will enter the picture. A nice Wed and Thu is expected before chance for showers returns Fri and Sat.
Monday: Increasing clouds. Showers/storms develop late/overnight. 84.
Tuesday: Rain with embedded storms. Heavy downpours. 2-3" rain. Locally more. 71.
Wednesday: Sun and clouds. Less humid. 81.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Pleasant. 83.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for shower/storm. 80.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for a shower/storm. 84.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. 86.
7 am Sun: The heavy showers of this morning have ended or are ending soon, that is by 7:30 they are out of here. Some clearing will take place shortly there after making for a warm and humid day. Typical August right?
The showers and storms of this afternoon? Not likely. Maybe one or two around, but shouldn't be much. I would expect a dry afternoon for most if not all of us.
Enjoy the LORD's Day! Come worship with us 9:15 am in sanctuary, 10:30 am at Picnic Pavilion. God bless.
We did have a nice rain Thu night. It was needed. Yesterday was dry and Sat will likely be dry also. Sunday is looking warm, muggy, with some showers and storms around in the afternoon. Maybe a morning shower also. Any shower or storm will be capable of heavy rain.
Then the wetness sets in. Hurricane Isaias or its remnant low will over NE over the east coast. This combined with a boundary/trough to our west will allow plenty of tropical moisture to flow northeast into our area. The heaviest rain will be to our east, but we should get a good soaking Mon night - Tue afternoon. 1-3" seems reasonable, with 2" being the most likely.
After that, a cooler change for a few days. Temps by Thu morning could drop into the upper 50s! Very nice indeed.
Saturday: Increasing clouds. Chance of a shower late/overnight. 84.
Sunday: Early shower. Partly sunny. Humid. Scattered afternoon showers/storms. 88.
Monday: Partly sunny early then mostly cloudy. Rain develops overnight. 82.
Tuesday: Periods of rain. Could be heavy at times. Humid. Breezy at times. 75.
Wednesday: Party to mostly sunny. 82.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. 82.
Friday: Mostly sunny. 84.
July is turning out to be a hot and dry month for most. Hot for all, and dry for many, but not all. My neighborhood is certainly one of the dry ones. And that dry pattern looks to continue through Saturday.
Some changes are occurring in the pattern. Today marks the start of these shifts. Yesterday and Sunday was very hot (mid to upper 90's as dry ground is now making an impact). Today will be much cooler ... only 90 as there will be a fair amount of clouds, and maybe a shower or two. But this front is the leading edge to a developing trough in the east. It will get reinforced on Friday. This cools us even more. Best chance for rain is Sunday afternoon/night as an area of low pressure moves to our west. Good moisture and lift is possible over the area for widespread showers/storms. Behind it we stay cooler as the excessive heat stays away for now.
Tuesday: Sun and clouds. Chance for a shower. 89.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 88.
Thursday: Mostly sunny to start. Some clouds later. Chance shower/storm. 88.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Slight chance for a shower southern areas. 83.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. 85.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Showers/storms likely. 83.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for a shower/storm. 82.
The heat is trying to take over, but the cool is trying hard to push it back. What I mean by heat is 90+ temperatures. It was to be hot the last three days. See the previous forecast. And then the heat gets knocked back a little. You will notice over the next few days that it won't be as hot, and there will be a chance for showers/storms.
This does not mean, however, that it will feel cool and refreshing. No it will be warm to hot throughout the seven day period. Just not 95+ hot. By the way the average high for this time of year is 85-86 degrees. So, 90 is not really that far above average, esp under sunny skies.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for shower/storm. 88.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Chance for a shower/storm. 89.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for a shower/storm. 89.
Friday: Mostly sunny. 90.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 88.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Chance shower/storm. 88.
Monday: Mostly sunny. 92.
A lot of hot summer weather around, but not here yet. It will try to take over this weekend, but it doesn't look like it has lasting power ... at least not yet. Later in the summer, I believe it will (like August) but until then, I think we get little shots of drier/cooler air from Canada cutting off of the hot flow.
About today: Lots of clouds are hanging around. They are making the atmosphere stable which means little to no rain. It also means much cooler temps than first thought too. Since we are getting drier, some rain would be nice, but today is not looking wet. Just mostly cloudy. Some sun may poke through this afternoon. But that is uncertain. More sunshine would mean greater chance for showers. Any thunderstorm chance is likely Fri afternoon.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy then partly sunny. Chance for a shower. 84. (No sun = 79)
Friday: Party to mostly sunny. Humid. Shower or storm possible in afternoon. 87.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 90.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Hot. 94.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for shower/storm. 94.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Chance for shower/storm. 88. (If low clouds hang tough = 79)
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 86.
Yes, a comfy little stretch will be upon us today, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Today will feel a little humid to start, but more refreshing as the day passes. Tuesday will be ideal: low humidity, a little breeze, sunshine and about 80 degrees. Wednesday will still be lower humidity, but the heat will increase.
A pattern is developing where the core of the ridge is to our W/SW. This is where the main heat will reside. This allows for the NE US to get into a NW flow that allows for weak troughs to bring in cooler air, keeping the excessive heat at bay, for now. Later in the summer (August) I expect this will shift more in our direction. But time will tell.
Raging Debate: The models are debating among themselves over this coming weekend. How hot will it be? Typical July heat of 85? Or excessive heat and humidity of 95? Some models have been trying to put us into the excessive heat for the last 10 days. For example, today -Wed was originally supposed to be in the 90's to near 100! According to some models ... and those same models keep kicking the can of heat down the road. They will be right eventually. But right now, I am skeptical of any long lasting heat in our area. Long lasting in my opinion is 5 or more consecutive days of 91 or higher heat. Locally, we have not done that yet this summer. I don't expect to see it until August.
Details for this week:
Monday: Mostly sunny. 82.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Puffy clouds. 80.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. 85.
Thursday: Sunny to start. Chance showers/storms late. 90.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Cooler. 86.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 89.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Chance for showers/storms late. 89.
A couple of minor notes:
Tropical Storm Fay has visited us and brought some needed rain for many areas. I know some folks got a lot of rain earlier in the week, but many did not. This rain is good. It soaks in real well. But it sure is humid.
Looking back over the forecast, it was good except for Tue. It sure was not mostly sunny. Missed that one. Low clouds just got stuck. Otherwise not bad. Too warm for today but hte showers idea was right. Time to look ahead.
Active Pattern: Saturday a front moves through with showers and storms. Sunday is a little cooler. Then another front and possible wave of low pressure brings more showers/storms on Mon. Cooler Tue with much lower humidity, and then the heat begins to return for Wed-Fri.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Shower/storm likely. 86.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Little less humid. 86.
Monday: Cloudy. Showers/storms likely. Humid. 78.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Nice breeze. 81.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Hotter. 91.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Hot. 93.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Chance for shower/storm. Hot. 94.
Hot today. Warm Sat and Sun. Staying warm to possible very hot by later next week.
Pattern: A ridge is dominating our weather. We are on the NE side which often has rounds of thunderstorms, and it does but we are too far SW for any widespread activity. In fact if we don't get rain today, we may stay dry through much of next week. There will be a chance for a shower/storm for next Mon-Thu, but with the ridge being dominant, dry is the operative word to go with. This ridge could lead to hot/very hot conditions by late next week: lots of sun, drier ground = heat.
Today: Mostly sunny. Hot. Chance for shower or storm. Breeze at times. 94.
Independence Day: Sun and clouds. Warm. 86. Less humid.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Warm. Increasing humidity. 86.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Warm. Chance for a shower/storm. 87
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Warm. Chance for a shower/storm. 89
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Chance for a shower/storm. 91
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Chance for a shower/storm. 93
Friday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Chance for a shower/storm. 94
The heat could peak next Saturday, but also end that day. Time will tell. A warm/hot July is on the way. Probably dry too.
Happy Birthday America!
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.