Forecasting is interesting. Especially when 24 hours before a rain event, you go more aggressive than most do, but still are underdone. While the less aggressive, come out the morning of the event and now-cast what is actually what is going on, and claim they are correct. Funny business. 

Oh, well. Sunday was very cool (got that right). It rained the steadiest before 2 pm (got that right too). But it was a tad heavier than I thought. Not bad though. 

Today should become mostly sunny. It may take some time for the low clouds to dissipate, but they will eventually. Hopefully sooner than later. 

Rain arrives again for Tue/Tue night. Wed should become breeze and cooler leading to a nice Thu and Fri. 

Fri night/Sat is now the big debate. Is there a big storm with a soaking rain?  Or is there a mere weak front and a few showers?  Despite what the majority of the models show, personally, I take the bigger storm with a soaking rain. Why? 

1. Models are notorious for dumping upper level energy that comes into Idaho/Montana,straight south into the AZ/NM. This can happen under the right circumstances. But often it is over stated. This error makes the model build a ridge in the east and eliminates the potential for a stronger storm. 
   
2.  The pattern is progressive. That means things are moving along. Therefore, the flow of energy should keep moving, not dive too far south. 
3. The GFS supports a stronger storm, but it is too far east. Typical error of this model. Sunday's rain. When Tropical storm Nestor was named, it was forecast to stay well to our SE by nearly all forecasts, but then it became clear the rains would be further north. Most models rejected this until 24 hours away. 

Perhaps you don't totally understand the above 3 points, but they all push me to lean toward a bigger storm for the weekend. Not a powerful storm, but a soaking rain looks likely to me. It could change. I acknowledge that. But right now I like the idea and am sticking with it. 

Enjoy the nicer weather today, Wed, Thu, and Fri. But also enjoy the rain Tue and Sat.

Our weather pattern will be active this next week and beyond. Nice today, a brush with a weak system to our south (former weak tropical storm Nestor) tomorrow, and nice day Monday. Then a strong slow moving cold front on Tue night/Wed followed by a nice Thu. A big rain-storm is looking likely for Fri night/Sat. 

No major warm up's in sight. A seasonal temperature pattern will become a seasonally chilly temperature pattern by the end of the month. Nothing too significant though. And it will be rather wet as the two systems next week (not Sun) will bring on average 1" of rain. 

Enjoy the nice days and rainy days. Each day is a day the Lord has made.   

To be honest: not much going on. Nice. Sunny with some clouds. A weak front, but likely dry. This should last right through Mon and into Tue. 

It is not calm everywhere. A major winter storm with lots of record breaking cold is stalling NE of North Dakota bringing cold, 1-3 feet of snow, and high winds. Yea, blizzard warnings are up for large areas of ND today and into tomorrow (Sat). Not pleasant. 

That system is the one that will come east and shove a front through Sat night. But it will be  shell of itself former self when it does so. Maybe a shower. I actually doubt it. Sprinkles might be better. 

Then is nice for Sun and Mon and even the start of Tue. But then a classic fall storm with a southerly wind flow, deeper moisture, heavy rains and colder temps behind it comes in for Wed. As we get deeper into Oct/Nov expect more stormy wet weather. 

​Enjoy. 

A little wetter yesterday than expected. Lots of drizzle, mist which was more widespread than I thought it would be. Missed that one. The clouds and a few actual showers was not too surprising. it just came in earlier.

Now today is easy. Rain. No question about that. Most of the rain will be after 8 am and before 9 pm. Some could be heavy. And there will be times of just clouds and no rain. Expect about 1 - 1.5" of rain. Yes, our dry pattern is over.  There will also be a nice southerly breeze today.  

It will turn cooler and drier as the front pushes through our area late today. This should set-up a nice week for us over-all. A large ocean storm will develop and stay offshore. It will likely come close enough to keep a NE flow of air over the NE and Mid-Atlantic. This will help us stay very uniform from Tue - Fri. Because the storm won't be too far off-shore there is likely to be periods where the clouds will rule the sky esp. Tue - Thu. But by Fri we should be mostly sunny. 

A large storm will also be affecting the western US and central plains. Lots of snow in the mountains and high plains from Montana to Nebraska to Minnesota. Heavy rain and severe storms east and south of that area. As this slowly comes east, the rain will lessen, and snow will lift into Canada. Some showers are possible with this sometime Saturday. 

That is about it. Lots of seasonal Oct weather with week: rainstorm today, low to mid 60's all week which is exactly where we should be for the second week of Oct. 

Enjoy. 

Nice day. But cooler. And chilly to cold tomorrow morning. In fact, we there is a likelihood of some light frost in colder locales. I don't seen anything widespread. The air is not dry enough for that. Plus the breeze is still stirring prevent a rapid drop off this evening which is what usually occurs in a freeze or heavy frost scenario. But other than that, we have  very nice Sat coming. Sun won't be too bad. Milder, but cloudier. Rain for Monday. Dry Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday. 

Enjoy the seasonal October weather. Summer weather is toast until next summer. 

I know it has been fall for a couple of weeks or for the past month, depending on how you count falls arrival. No matter, the weather will consistently reflect the nature of the season from now on. 

Today was a tough call temperature-wise. The front moved through around midnight. I wasn't sure if it would move though during the night or during the morning. The difference?  About 15 - 20 degrees in the high temperatures. No biggie, right?  Right. 

Well, at midnight it was 71 at Ft Indiantown Gap; 77 at Harrisburg; and 75 at Reading. Slow that front down several hours and we wake up to 70 degree readings.  In fact right now it is 82 in Pittsburgh and Latrobe. The front has not moved through there yet. No matter, we are chilly and will stay that way today with off and on showers, drizzle, mist, maybe even a heavier shower later and into the overnight. 

Nicer tomorrow with a nice gusty breeze. Very chilly Fri night in Sat. 

​Full update tomorrow. Enjoy. 

Our last fling with summer will arrive next Tue and last through Wed. Then it becomes much cooler, and it will stay more seasonal.  Here are some details: 

1) Sat: Warmer and more humid. Showers or a storm likely late. 

2) Sun and Mon: Cooler. Sun and clouds. 

3) Tue and Wed: Warm and more humid. Temps into the 80's 

4) Thu: Showers or periods of rain. Temps in the 60's. 

A decent rain is possible next Thu. The first good looking chance in quite some time. 

​Enjoy your weekend.