Suedberg Church of God - Faithful Forecast

Let the Cooling Begin

10/11/2018

Today the warm humid weather ends. As expected it would be rainy and some of that rain would be heavy. There is still some more to come yet this afternoon and evening, but it should be over by 8 pm.

Then the cooler air takes over.

Our high temperatures have been in the 70s for most days of October. Starting Fri, tomorrow, our highs will be in the 50s to 60. Yes, that is right, cooler than what our overnight low temperatures have been lately. Some mornings will see temperatures near 40 or below. Frost? We’ll have to see. Maybe.

The changes from the last update are …

Saturday: mostly cloudy with chance for a few showers. Cool. Highs in the low 50s!
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Cool. Next rain system comes in two pieces … one Sat and the other is delayed until Mon/Tue.

Until then, enjoy the take over of Autumn.

The Cold Door is About to Open

10/8/2018

The door to the much colder air masses of Canada is about to be opened for the eastern US. That means if you like it warm and humid, you had better enjoy today through Thursday, for the door will swing wide open by Friday morning.

This means there are 3 main subjects to talk about:

Warm and Humid: the low-level flow was more off the ocean than I expected today, creating more clouds. But they are eroding slowly. The same could hold true to Tue, although I think they will break up faster. And by Wed the flow should be S or SW and we should have partly to mostly sunny skies.
Transition Periods: Thursday and Sunday. Thursday is the first big step. A tropical storm/ hurricane (Matthew) will hit the Gulf Coast (Fla) and be pulled N/NE. Moisture from it will also be pulled north toward our area ahead of a cold front. It will be a wet day. Some rain will be heavy. The core of the remnants of this storm will likely just miss us to the SE. On Sunday, another front will bring more rain, with moisture from a former hurricane in the NE Pacific. This is the second big step down in temperatures.
Temperature Change: High temperatures will be in the 70’s today through Thu. But will remain int the 50’s for Fri – Sun and remaining in the 40’s for Mon – Wed of next week. The threat for frost is certainly there next week.

Enjoy the unseasonably mild weather. We only have a few days left.

Autumn Weather Made Beautiful Continued

10/5/2018

We cool off again for a couple of days, only to warm back up for much of next week. Yes, the second week of October will feel more like summer: warm afternoons in the upper 70’s and morning lows in the 60’s. That is not typical October weather. But it is what’s coming and many will think it is beautiful.

There should not be much rain to talk about either. There could be some drizzle or light rain showers Sat or Sat night. Another chance is Mon night. But again, we are not talking about much. It is more likely to stay dry
.
The only “fly” in the ointment is the on-shore flow that develops for Sat into Sun. Many people may not call it beautiful. But overall the first 10 days of Oct are going to be rather nice indeed. Focusing back on Sat and the on shore flow .. this will keep us in the clouds and cooler temperatures. But that will start to change Sunday afternoon. It will then become more humid with partly to mostly sunny skies through Wednesday.

The period beginning Thu through the following weekend, which Is beyond this forecast cycle, will represent a change in our upper level pattern. It will turn stormy and much cooler. It also could become very wet with a good possibility of heavy rain. But there is time to focus on those details as we get into the middle of next week.

Until then, enjoy.

Autumn Weather Made Beautiful

10/1/2018

The theme for the first 10 days of October will be simple ... beautiful. There will be a few bumps in the road, like Tue and Thu night and maybe Sat, but nothing too serious. The rest of the week should be very nice with sunshine for a good portion of the day, and mild to warm temperatures in the 70's. Not bad at all.

A good rule in weather forecasting for the US is this: When the west gets stormy and wet, the east turns pleasant and mild. It works the other way too. Last week it was rainy in the east, and very pleasant out west. I know because I was out in Portland. Picture perfect weather while it rained back here. This week will, for the most part, be the opposite. Enjoy it.

Highlights:

Showers likely Tuesday.
Nice and mild Wed and Thu. Temps could try for 80 on Thu.
Weak front moves through early Fri with a shower or two at best.
On shore flow could mess up Sat, keeping us cloudy and cool. But that should break up on Sunday.

This mild pattern should last the first 10 days of the month. Again, enjoy.

September 26th, 2018

9/26/2018

Wish I had better news than more wet weather coming, but fir the next couple if days, I do not. It will showers and possibly storm today and this evening. After which the cold front moves through but it slows and stalls. How unusual ...

A wave of energy moves NE along the front giving us more ran late Thu into early Fri. Expect up to 3/4 of an inch. Then maybe a dry weekend. It will be cooler and falllike with highs in the 60's.

Once past this weekend we look to moderate some and stay relatively dry until latern next week. This s good.

So be hopeful and endure patiently the next 3 days. Things improve for this weekend.

Enjoy.

WED ... SHOWERS. HUMID. ... 75

THU ... CLOUDY. RAIN DEVELOPS IN AFTERNOON ... COOLER ... 65

FRI ... RAIN ENDING EARLY ... CLEARING ... 65

SAT ... PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ... SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER ... 64

SUN ... MOSTLY SUNNY ... NICE ... 67

MON ... PARTLY SUNNY ... 64

Changes are Coming

9/21/2018

Autumn arrives this Sunday, Sep 23rd. And after today it will fell more like Autumn. A summer feel for today, IF THE SUN breaks through the clouds. If it does temperatures would make a run to 80 or above. Not sure if we get enough sun though. So mid 70's is probably it. And probably it for summer. Just in time for Autumn.

Highs will reach the 60's for most of next week except for Wed. But even then only low to mid 70's and that for only one day. Times are changing. Cool air moves in tonight and remains with only temporary retreats from here on out it seems.

Our first step down is this weekend into next week The next comes next Fri/Sat. Then early the following week. Not sure how it will all play out, but by the time we get to early Oct frost could be very well be a threat. But Oct usually does that. So not a huge surprise.

Each front will have its own showers/periods of rain with it. Some could be heavy. But the excessive flash flooding rains are done for now. We should stay wet though Autumn. Our first wet period is later Mon - early Wed. Some moisture from the south will move up on Monday into Tuesday and bring a soaking rain to our area. Expect about an inch of rain. Then the front moves through late Tue into Wed. That could bring another half inch.

We dry out then another front come late Fri into Sat and that could bring another half inch to one inch of rain.

Again, wet, but not excessive.

If you are looking for cooler fall-like days ... your wish is about to be granted.

enjoy.

A Few Showers, but Autumn is Coming ...

9/18/2018

When I look back at my forecast for the remnants of Flo, it was going well, through Monday afternoon, however the heavy showers and storms did not materialize as I thought they would have. There were some that developed in northern VA and moved NE, not N like I expected. This led to some heavy rains for portions of SE PA. Checking the reports some areas saw over 2" of rain. Also, another heavy band (no thunderstorms just rain) developed from north central PA to Albany NY. So the potential was there, but the system got strung out.

Strung out? Yes, strung out. Like stretching a rubber band, as it is stretched the rubber band gets thinner. Think of that as precipitation. As it was stretched, it became thinner and less concentrated. Not that I am complaining. I just like to have an accurate forecast. But after all the rain we've had, I guess only 1" (plus of minus a little) seems like very little.

This was probably our last real flash flood threat of the year as we begin to transition to a more autumn pattern. It will remain mild/warm through Fri, but then a cooler change occurs. After this weekend, do not expect to see 80 degrees too often. Maybe once or twice, but summer is over.

We should still stay moist/wet but the storms will give us heavy rain over the better part of a day, rather than a couple of hours. Over-all I am looking for a good cool down with refreshing air, and lower humidity. We've endured a lot of it this year, and drier air would be welcome.

Enjoy.

Full update later.

Where Will Flo Go?

9/15/2018

Hurricane Florence is not going very far very fast leading to a very bad situation in primarily NC. Pray for folks to just be smart and safe. It will end. The water will recede.

Will Flo or the remnants thereof, impact us? If yes, how strongly will we be impacted?

First: Yes, the remnants of Flo will come across our area Late Mon - Tue.

Second, a bout of heavy rain may move through Mon afternoon/evening and then a couple rounds of heavy showers/thunderstorms will impact us Mon night through much of Tue. This should lead to a widespread 2-4” with locally higher amounts.

I am going higher than virtually all models, because …

We are dealing with the tropical system. Precipitation rates will be efficient, thus under-forecast.
This is not a 48-hour duration event. It may rain for 12 hours.
Very high levels of moisture in the atmosphere, will be able to unload a lot of rain in a short period of time, esp. if you have S-N moving thunderstorms.

These reasons lead me to believe that flash flooding is our biggest threat. This can lead to river flooding, but not always. The river flood threat should be more west and north of our area.

After Flo moves away, we dry out for two days.

Until then enjoy.

All About Florence

9/11/2018

Latest on Hurricane Florence for our area:

General idea: The track of the storm seems to be to coastal NC then painfully slow meandering from SC to VA. Where exactly it meanders is very uncertain. So, we shall not guess because no one knows what to guess.

What is known is that a frontal system then approaches on about Tue of next week and that trough will likely pull Florence or what remains of her, northward. This would bring us “remnant rains”. Just for reference, the rains we got Sat-Mon was from remnant rains of Tropical Storm Gordon. So, we could still get quite a lot of rain out of the remnants of Florence early next week. But that is about a week away ... (for residents in NC/SC/VA it is about 2 days away. Pray the residents are wise and head away from coastline. It will be bad on the coast, and it will last for some time, as this storm will be moving slow).

Until then this is what to expect the rest of this week:

Wednesday: lots of clouds. Some breaks at times. Showers likely. Some heavy rain is also possible.
Thursday: Some sun, but clouds still prevail. Showers are likely.
Friday: Lots of clouds yet. A peek or two of sunshine. Turning breezy. Showers are also possible.
Saturday: At least partly sunny. Passing shower, but mostly dry. Breezy at times.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. I think the high keeps the clouds thin, and the sun prevails for the most part as Florence stays south.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny.
Tuesday: Increasing/thickening clouds. Rain arrives?

Note: It will be humid throughout the forecast.

Enjoy.

Wet Weather Returns

9/8/2018

My concern for heavier rain (via showers and storms Sun night) from the previous post, was a good call. It won’t be exactly as I feared, but the heavier rain is coming, and it will be widespread. This rain is from the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon and an interaction with a frontal boundary that moved through Late Thursday. one good note is that we did not get widespread heavy rain on Thu or Fri, although some did have spotty heavy rain (ex: Reading over 2” and Philly over 4”).

The rain will begin later today and be light and spotty but become steady and heavier overnight. It will fall heavy at times tomorrow into tomorrow night. A lull is likely to occur late Sun night into Mon morning, before more showers and storms develop for later Mon into Mon night. Expect a widespread 2-4” with locally higher amounts possible. Streams/creeks/rivers will rise significantly, and some flooding is possible, exp. In low lying areas.

Western PA is going to be hit hard, with widespread flooding likely from a solid 4-8” rain, with higher amounts possible. Not a good situation in the mountains (Ohio Valley is also going to be flooded with 5-9” of rain).

Once the rain moves out, a quasi-frontal boundary may stall in our area, stretching from New England to NC. This could act as a focus for showers and storms to develop on Tue - Thu afternoons keeping us very wet.

Then attention turns to Florence (likely a major hurricane by Thu of next week). Will it impact us directly or not?

Right now, we do not know. It is my opinion that it will impact the east coast late next week and next weekend. The moisture from it could track right into our area, go west of our area or stay east. I cannot say which scenario is correct. No matter what it does, due to the amount of rain in the east and Midwest this summer, flooding is likely to occur from wherever Florence tracks, and in some cases, it could be severe.

But until then, enjoy the cooler weather, pray it does not flood so we can relax for a few days.