It seems that all eyes are looking to next weekend. And I can understand why. I pointed out last week that this upcoming weekend (18-20) was one to watch for a significant storm. And the storm is coming. The confidence level is very high indeed. But what about the details?

The details are not so certain yet. There are 2 basic ideas for this system:

1. Storm tracks right over head. This gives heavy snow, then heavy sleet, maybe some rain before ending as snow. 
2. Storm tracks to our SE. This gives heavy snow. 

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I personally favor something close to #1. If I had my wish, I would go for #2. But when forecasting I need to look at what seems most likely, not what I wish. And some variation of #1 is what I lean toward right now.

Now, before we get there, we do have a cold front moving through Wed night, reinforcing our cold air, and giving us a cold Thursday. Then a system moves in for Thu night bringing light snow and light accumulations by Fri morning. Not a big storm; yet not one to overlook either. And it may play a role in our weekend storm if it is a little stronger causing the pattern to flatten a little, making us colder. Time will tell.

That’s all for now. Until next time (Wed probably). Enjoy. 

It’s windy. It’s chilly/cold. We had some flurries, and even a nice snow shower. It’s January. Typical weather. It’s supposed to feel like winter. It is after-all winter.

Now what about snow?  That is the focus for Saturday into Sunday. Does it snow?  How much if it does?  Will it cancel school on Monday? Will we be snowed in for several days?  And on and on.

Answers: Yes. 1-2”. No. No.

I said early in the week that the weekend system was one to watch. I wrote that it would bring us light snow as a minimum. Although I did not write it, I always felt this was a 1” to at most 5” system for us. Nothing big. Just a widespread light to moderate event. And it is looking to be a light snowfall.

What could change?

1. Not much room to change a lot due to the pattern. But the initial burst of snow could hold together better than indicated, and it gives us an additional 1” of so of snow.
2. Low reorganizes along coast faster than indicated and that results in a burst of steady snow Sunday morning giving us an additional 1” of snow.
3. Initial burst of snow falls apart more quickly and we receive less than 1” snow.
4. Big cold high to the north, delivers very dry air into the region, causing much of the snow to evaporate before hitting the ground resulting in less than 1” snow.

Basically, highest amounts I could see is 3” snow. Lowest is a coating.  I feel 99.9% confident in that it will snow some. 1-2” seems about right to me right now. Final call by Sat morning. 

After that is it seasonable. High pressure controls until mid-week when a weak system moves through with a few snow showers being possible. No accumulation expected at this time.

Next weekend, the 18-20 is one to watch. A more significant system could be looming. This one has more potential to bring heavier precipitation. It could be all snow, a cold rain or a combination of the two. Not sure yet. There is plenty of time to figure that one out.

One thing is certain. Our mild rain dominated weather pattern is changing. Winter is back and probably be staying around for a while. 

Enjoy. 

The forecast going forward is going to be very volatile ... that is very changeable and challenging. Beyond day 3 things will change and beyond day 5 its anyone's guess. Things are trying to change to a colder regime and pattern. But can it override the powerful Pacific Jet that is split over North America?  Not in the next week it won't. After that?  Maybe. 

Until then we have the rainstorm for Mon/Tue. More soaking rain. More cool air getting stuck east of the mountains. More of the same. 

Colder midweek. Then what happens at the end of the week depends on the southern energy coming out of the SW. It could be snow! It could be rain! It could be both! Or it could be crushed south of us. Split flow is tough. 

Have a Happy New Year!  Praying for a dryer year. Normal rains would be very nice and seem dry. 

As Christmas week continues to unfold, the weather is cooperating rather nicely for most people to travel to family and friends to celebrate together.  The only minor hiccup could be early Fri morning (3 -5 am) for some sleet/ice. But that should be very brief and localized if it even happens. More likely NE our area.  So, yes another rainstorm is on the way!  Might as well the year on a familiar note: rain. Expect about 1” of rain this time.

Then it gets challenging for Sun – Wed of next week, perhaps even longer.

The Set-up:

1. Set-up: SW trough. SE ridge.
2. Moist flow brings plentiful moisture from the NE Pacific across Mexico into Texas, and up from the Gulf of Mexico.
3. Cold air building in Canada.
4. Split Flow: SE trough represents the southern jet, bringing moisture (#2 above). The northern jet basically cuts across US-Canadian border (#3 above).

Possibly Impacts:

1. Two streams interact perfectly. This results in a big storm. Probably rain with heavy snow north.
2. Two streams stay separate. This means most of the moisture stays south, but some comes north.
3. South dominates, and we warm up and get rain.
4. North dominates, and we turn cold, but basically dry.

Models are all over the place. They are no help in this pattern beyond 3 days. As they always struggle with SW troughs and SE ridges. When the trough is overdone, it pumps the SE ridge too much.

I suspect that there will be a weak system trying to move north for Sunday, but it should stay south of us. A bigger system will move NE on Monday into Tuesday. What we get depends on the cold air or lack thereof. It’s a rain/snow/mix option or all 3 at this point, although I do lean more toward wet rather than white.  

The major rainstorm has passed and the forecast turned out very well. There was a bigger break in the rain, and even some sunshine that was not expected, but 60 degrees and higher for Dec 21st?  Who is complaining?  Even had some thunder last evening. But that is now gone. Back to seasonal weather for mid/late Dec. 

There are a couple of changes. 

• First, the snow showers for Sun night have turned into the stronger system giving us light snow. It is likely to start briefly as a bit of light rain, but should change to snow quickly. It all starts after 8 pm and ends by 2 am Mon. Some lingering snow showers/flurries will be around Mon morning. a nice C-2" is likely. The hills could see up to 3" to our north. But that is isolated. 
• What could change?  System tracks further south, and we get all snow increasing amounts to 1-3" locally 4" in hills.  System is a touch warmer, giving more rain and it becomes C-1" at most.  
• Second, the light snow for late Christmas Day has turned into the weaker system and will give a chance for a couple of snow showers. (The timing of weak systems and the interaction of different pieces of energy is tricky from several days out, but the picture is much clearer now, thus the changes). 

Temperatures will be seasonally cool for this time of year. It will feel like winter, and probably look like it too. Nothing too outlandish that is certain. But that all ends Thu night as another storm tracks to our NW and brings milder air and more rain. It will start as a brief period of ice/sleet but then should change to a cold rain into Friday morning. This storm will not be as wet nor as warm as this last one. But rain is still rain. 

Unless there is a big change in the forecast for Sunday - Christmas, I will not be updating until after Christmas. 

Until then ... Enjoy and have a very Merry Christmas!