A nice dry pattern is going on for a couple more days then some rain chances return. It will feel like summer for Sun - Wed with warm, humid weather. There will be lots of sunshine also. An last hurrah of summer? Perhaps.
It will come to an end however as a cold front slowly moves across the area on Wed night and then stalls / washes out on Thu/Fri as an area of low pressure develops off the SE coast of the US. This low may become a tropical storm, and it could impact our area as it moves N-NW or it could veer out to sea. We will have to see. Regardless, the end of the week looks like it could be wet with showers and storms becoming likely.
Until then the only chance for rain is Mon night into Tues with a weak front trying to drop south out of NY state bringing some showers/storms with it. This front may simply stay to our north and has no impact on us at all. We will see.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. Warm. 82.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Warm. More humid. Chance for a shower/storm overnight. 84.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Warm. Humid. Slight chance shower. 83.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. 85.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Showers/storms likely. 76.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Showers/storms likely. 75.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for a shower. 76.
A beautiful stretch of weather is well earned after all the rain of Wednesday. And we're on day number three. Sadly, tomorrow is looking so-so, clouds a few showers, cool. But Labor Day itself is looking very nice. A midweek frontal system will move through with period of showers/storm then nice for 2-3 days again. Nothing too exciting which is good.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy (some sun may peek out at times). Few showers. 68.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Pleasant. 75.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Nice. 80
Wednesday: Turning mostly cloudy. Showers/storm likely late. Warmer/humid. 83.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. 73.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. 74.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 76.
The remnants of Hurricane Ida will pass through our area on Wed. It is a very concerning forecast regarding the flood potential. Keeping it simple:
This is a very concerning forecast. We've seen tropical systems dump a ton of rain on us before over the last 15 years. So we know what they can do. Praying it doesn't do like some have done in the past.
Once we get through this, the weather looks nice for Labor Day Weekend. Low humidity, sunshine, and maybe a shower on Labor Day itself, but nothing to worry about.
Full update after Wed's rainstorm.
What to do with Hurricane Ida?
The truth be told, not much we can do. It's going to go where the steering flow guides it. Not much we can do about that. It will hit Louisiana tomorrow, and move north then NE into the Tennessee Valley then up to WV then E-NE into MD and DE then off the east coast. That is my best guess at this time of the track the the remnant low pressure of Ida.
What does that mean for us? More heavy rain. Flood potential will increase significantly by Wed of next week. Our soil is wet. Stream flow is higher now, and water table has increased. So the danger is higher than a couple weeks ago. Then if Ida tracks near us, a solid couple to several inches of rain could soak us.
As we get closer we will know more, but the threat for flooding of some kind (ex: typical low lying or flash flood or small stream or larger river flooding) will be increasing. A threat does not mean it will happen. Just something to be aware of.
Until then, not a lot happening. Cloudy for the most part Sunday. Humid yet. Monday, partly sunny. Humid. Warmer. Showers likely with the approach of a cold front. This front will weaken and slump south then stall and interact with Ida. Cooler air will try to filter in slowly on Tue and Wed. But after Ida leaves, it looks like a beautiful Labor Day weekend could be setting up with low humidity and sunny skies.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Humid. 80.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. Showers/storms likely. 87.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Lowering humidity. 79.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Rain. Possibly heavy. 66.
Thursday: Cloudy with rain ending, then clearing. Less humid. 71.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Low humidity. 72.
Saturday. Mostly sunny. 78.
Hot, humid, but dry for a few days. Then possible wet over the weekend. Yes, our chances for rain increase a bit late Friday and last though next Tuesday when a strong cold front passes through and ends this hot/humid spell.
Wed/Thu/Fri will be hot and humid. Highs around 90 every day, very humid esp. Thu/Fri and a chance for showers/storms esp. on Friday.
Sat/Sun will be humid, but cooler. Sat is a day that could feature a NE breeze and cooler temps with highs only in the mid 70s. But a warm front will try to move in from the west. This could become active with showers/storms as it moves east. This warm front will advance slowly, so even Sunday could feature more showers/storms.
Monday looks hot and drier. Still humid, while Tuesday looks like some heavy showers/storms move though along and ahead of a cold front. This front will lead to some cooler, and much less humid air for a couple of days, but the warmth and humidity will try to return later next week. But that is a long way off.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. 91.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. 92.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. Showers/storms likely. 88.
Saturday: Much cooler. Cloudy. showers/storms likely. 78.
Sunday: Cloudy to partly sunny. Chance showers/storms. 82.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Slight chance shower. 87.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. Humid. Showers/storms likely. Some heavy. 87.
Hurricane Henri. Where is he going? Will moisture be syphoned off of him and into our area as I wondered about last update? Sadly that answer is very debated at this time.
First, Henri is strengthening some, but not a lot. There is a N-NW pull on the cloud structure from Henri. This shows the pull of the western trough as it steers Henri north, then NNW then captures him. But where does that capture take place? Some have it in New York, some in New England, some in NE PA. Some forecasters do not even have capture at all. Lots of debate. Lots of arguing over the models.
This is when you skip models. Look at what is is happening right now. Below is a picture of the radar at 6:30 pm. It shows am arm of showers/storms moving NW in NJ into PA. Then I ask, what models show this? Sadly many do not. Those that don't I throw out. If they cannot get current conditions right, how will they get the forecast right?
So I go with those that have this finger of moisture coming NW. All but one brings that finger into our area. So I would expect showers to be developing overnight. And persist on and off Sunday. The heaviest may be late tonight, and then late Sunday.
I would expect from .25" to 1" rain, more to the east, and less to the west. Locally more possible. After Henri, we dry out, but stay warm and humid.
Sunday: Showers likely. Some heavier rain possible, esp. east. 76.
Monday: Partly sunny. Chance shower or storm. 82.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 88.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 89.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. 89.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Chance shower/storm. 89.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for showers. 81.
Tropical Rainstorm Fred is coming to our area later today and into late this evening. What does this mean for us?
After this system pulls away tonight some slightly less humid air will enter our area. It will still be humid, but it will feel better by comparison. Still a chance for a shower Thu and Fri but not too excited about widespread activity.
Then Hurricane to be Henri tries to come west. It should stall and then move north off the east coast. An upper level system may steer it into New England this weekend, and syphon some moisture back into our area in the form of showers/storms. A little tricky but possible. It will stay mild and basically humid (typical summer).
Today: Showers and storms becoming likely. Torrential downpours. Very humid. 78.
Thursday: Sun and clouds. Little less humid. Chance for a shower. 80.
Friday: Sun and clouds. Chance for a shower. 82.
Saturday: Partly sunny. chance for showers or a storm. 84.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for shower/storm. 84.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. 85.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 88.
A beautiful week looks to be upon us (for the most part). Sunshine, some clouds, slight chance of a shower Thu and then a big warm up for the weekend.
High pressure will dominate for Mon into Thursday. This will allow for mostly sunny skies. The only exception would be Tue as a wave of low pressure moves SE of our area off the east coast. This will bring some added clouds, but it will remain dry. It will clear off again Tue night/Wed morning.
A stronger area of low pressure will move NE along the coast also, and this should remain to our east, but it wouldn't take much to bring some showers into our area. So there will be a chance on Thu. Right now I think the bulk will be east of our area, but some uncertainty it there.
Friday, Saturday and next Sunday look nice with warming temps. 90s possible by Sun and into the following Mon/Tue.
Monday: Mostly sunny. 76.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. 76.
Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny. 78.
Thursday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance for a shower or two. 79.
Friday: Becoming mostly sunny. 84.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 87.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Humid. 90.
The final days of July are here. And the weather will be typical summer like for the most part. Warm, humid, showers/storms then cooler. In fact, a gorgeous Fri and Sat look to be coming. Sunday won't be half bad to start. The next week does not look real wet or hot.
A frontal boundary is draped across the state. Warm and humid to the south, and then somewhat cooler to the north. Not a lot of storms or showers along it but that may change tonight as energy moves in from the west pushing the front back NE. Showers and maybe a storm or two may erupt overnight.
Thursday looks active with showers and storms likely to be around. Perhaps mutilple rounds. Some heavy rain and strong gusty winds are possible.
Friday and Saturday look good as does the start to Sunday. A new front will move through on Sunday evening. Could be some widespread showers/storms Sunday night. More cool air invades the region for early and mid week.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Slight chance for a shower. Humid. 86.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Humid. Showers/storms. 80.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Breezy. 78.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Pleasant. 76.
Sunday: Mostly sunny then cloudy with showers/storms possible late. 77.
Monday: Sun and clouds. Cooler. 75.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. 76.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.