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One Tough Winter Storm Forecast - Update

11/14/2018

All storms are tough to forecast ... but there is normal tough ...and there is abnormal tough ... this coming storm is beyond normal. It is downright difficult. What do I mean?

Private forecasters are in disagreement. Some going warm. Some going cold. Not snow. Lots of snow. Lots of ice. Little ice.
Computer models are in disagreement. They range from 12" to 2" even though we are about 22 hours away from the storm beginning.
Odd Set-Up. What I mean is the intensity of the low level cold air. The tenacity of the high pressure area that does not want to move out of New England is unusual for mid-November.
Going Against the Norm: the computer models all show snow, some show very heavy snow, but they are doing it at an atmosphere thickness where it does not snow. Ex: 540 dm line is considered the rain/snow line. In set-ups like we have for this one 546 dm can be the rain/snow line. But some models are showing snow to the 550 dm line. Very, very unusual.

Tough forecast, because a 2 degree change here and there in the atmosphere will change things from snow to ice to rain or back again.

So below is my best guess. If it works out, praise God. If not, praise God, I did my best.

Enjoy.

A Cold Week with Rain and Snow.

11/12/2018

It is cold this morning and it will remain chilly to cold for this time of year all week and into much of next week. The advertised warm-up by some forecasters keeps getting beaten back. There is a reason why I have not talked about it too much … I have my doubts on how extensive it will be.

Meanwhile we have a rain storm to talk about for tonight into tomorrow morning. There could be some wet snow flakes over higher terrain as the rain comes in tonight, but nothing to get too excited about it. The storm will be a relatively strung out area of low pressure until the northern branch of the jet comes in and captures it, then it deepens and provides NW half of New England with a nice snowfall. No need to worry for us, as we stay all rain.
The rain will begin around 10 pm tonight and finish by 11 am tomorrow. There may e some lingering drizzle into the afternoon. It will be raw and chilly tomorrow also. Just not pleasant.

The cold front pushes through later in the day, and ushers in some colder air. A few snow flurries are possible early Wed, before high pressure moves in from the west and gives us more sunshine. It will be cold with highs only in the 30’s and nighttime lows well down in the 20’s. This set the stage for our first real winter storm of the season.

This storm is a bit of a surprise. No forecaster was talking about until yesterday, so don’t let anyone claim they saw it coming … because they didn’t. It appeared that all the energy that is initiating our storm for tonight would head E/NE off the east coast. This was why I was concerned for a stronger storm tonight. That idea was incorrect, as it now seems that a large chunk of energy will be left behind in Texas and that it will then move E/NE creating a new low-pressure area with lots of moisture to work with.

Combine that with the high pressure moving to Maine, providing support for cold air in our area, you have the ingredients for a winter storm. Notice I wrote winter storm, not snowstorm. There are too many borderline issues regarding temperatures at the surface, aloft, and elevation that make this too early to say "snowstorm". It could be a cold rain storm, a rain/sleet storm, a wet snow/sleet storm, or a wet snowstorm. This storm is three days away, we have time to figure it out.

Until next time, Enjoy.

Wet to Dry to Wet Snow?

11/9/2018

Don't get too excited. Wet snow is possible next Tuesday, but even if it does happen it won't amount to much around here. Now if you live in northern mountains of PA or NY into VT, NH, ME, then yes it will be a snowstorm. But for us? No. Just more wet.

But first we have today: a cold miserable rain. It will develop by midday and last into the evening hours. It will also rain heavy at times this afternoon. Expect about another 1" of rain for us. We've already exceeded the normal monthly amount for November, and it's only the 9th ... so our wet to record wet year continues.

Behind this system is some very chilly to cold air. It will turn windy on Saturday along with the chance for some flurries or maybe a light snow shower. It will be calmer on Sunday with sunshine, but still very chilly for this time of year.

Monday is decent with increasing clouds as the next system organizes and comes NE out of the Gulf of Mexico (get to hearing that this winter as it may happen a regular basis. Already a few storms since late Oct). This storm will be a wet one (so what else is new), and it will have more colder air to work with as it arrives on Tue. SOme questions with this Tue system:

How organized is the storm? Is it a consolidated low pressure area, or a more strung out area of low pressure. The more organized, it is the more potential for heavy snow to break out in areas to its wets.
How far west will the storm track? Just inland? Over the coastline? Just offshore? Anything over the coast or inland means heavy rain. If it's just offshore, then wet snow becomes a possibility.

Right now I think it will be a heavy cold rain with some wet snow mixing in just to our NW. The set up does not look favorable for us to see much in the way of snow as of this morning. Again, the answers to the two questions above are key. If things change then I will let you know!

Until next time, enjoy.

Weather: Unpleasant Bookends; Nice Middle

11/5/2018

The weather this week in summary: Wet Monday Wet Tuesday, Wet Friday. Nice Wed. Nice Thu. Yup, nice middle, unpleasant bookends.

Back to today ... well, my timing was off by about 6-8 hours from Saturday’s forecast issue. I knew it yesterday, but the basic idea of rain today was right, so I left it alone. Sunday’s are busy and wanted to enjoy the wonderful fall day in the late afternoon with family … so that is what we did.

As a result, the timing for Tue rain will be very similar … move it up 6-8 hours. In fact, tomorrow will look a lot like today: rain in the morning and early afternoon, then ending. There could be a rumble of thunder tomorrow, although most of that should be to our west. Expect about another 1” rain, after today’s 1” or so.

High pressure takes over for midweek. Wednesday and Thursday look to be very nice fall days. A little breezy on Wed, and a little cooler on Thu but less breezy.

Friday looks miserable. A new storm will form with one low along the coast, and another low in the eastern Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. This will generate lots or rain for us (surprise, surprise) and even some wet snow for the far northern Mtns of PA into NY and New England. You might be able to see a sloppy wet snow flake on Fri as the rain begins, if the temperatures are cold enough. Regardless, it will be cold and wet with temperatures hovering about 40 for much of the day.

Saturday and Sunday look to be unseasonably cold days for the first half of November with some sunshine and temperatures around the low 40s for highs and low at night dropping into the 20’s. Almost winterlike.

And speaking of winterlike, the first potential shot at some snow could come early the following week. Tue the 13th of Nov looks interesting. A new storm, which makes sense, and some cold air available. At the least, more soaking rains.

Until next time, enjoy.

Nice Ending to Weekend. Wet Week Ahead.

11/3/2018

It cleared out a little sooner, and turned nicer faster ... and it made for a nice, breezy day for early Nov. I'm liking it. I sure hope you are, because upcoming week is looking rather cloudy and wet for the most part. We have three storms that will be impacting us this week ...

Monday: First system is the weakest, but it has some good moisture available as the flow comes out of the deep south. Expect about .5" rain with more to our SE.
Tuesday: Second system is stronger and has a deep flow out of the south as well. This should bring us some heavy rain late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Expect about 1" of rain with more to our NW.
Friday: Third system is the most interesting. It could be the strongest, and it should have some very cold air with it on the NW side. The first widespread snow for many will occur from the central plains through the eastern Great Lakes. I do not think we will see snow ... at least not yet. My concern is the potential for some widespread heavy rain.

The nicest days this week will be Sunday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I hope you enjoy, esp. tomorrow: Seasonally cool, sunshine, less breeze.

Enjoy.

Stormy End to the Week, But a Nice Sunday

11/1/2018

A quick update on this very nice mild Nov 1 of 2018. It won't last as rain is on its way for tonight, then a break tomorrow before more rain late tomorrow into the overnight. A cooler weekend, with Sunday being very nice. Another double shot of rain for begin late Monday and then another for later Tuesday. Much cooler weather comes at the end of next week. Could it provide a chance for snow? Probably not yet. But we are getting closer.

Quick update as time if tight.

Enjoy.

Some Nice Weather, then More Autumn Rain

10/29/2018

Once past today, we get a 3 day stretch of nice fall weather to end Oct and begin Nov. How does 60 degrees sound? How about 65 for the first of Nov? Not bad. The milder weather will continue into early Fri before a cold front returns us to a chilly weekend. A few items to mention ...

First we have a weak area of low pressure leaving us this morning after some over night showers. Lots of clouds will be around, but some peeks of sun will occur as well.

Second, Tuesday should turn out to be rather nice with sun and clouds, and a light breeze.

Third, we have a cold front that will approach the area on Wed, but it will stall. It may make it through the area, but the cold air behind it won't. An area of low pressure will form along this front and move just to our west. This will allow for milder air to surge north, and the steadiest, heaviest rains to remain to our west also.

Fourth, the showery rains of Thu night into Fri will end, and a second area of low pressure *MAY* develop and bring more showers for Saturday.

Sunday looks rather nice, but cool as high pressure takes over a couple of days.

More storminess will occur as we approach election day.

To sum up: nothing outrageous in terms of warmth, cold, rain, or dry. Just very typical mid Autumn like weather.

Enjoy.

The Storminess Begins

10/26/2018

Our calm, relatively pleasant weather pattern is ending. And it will do so starting around 9 pm tonight. Rain will develop early tonight, and continue, heavy at times through tomorrow morning. Light rain and drizzle will be on/off into Saturday night. Showers will then linger. It will be breezy at times early Sat and then again on Sunday.

It will also be chilly. Highs on Sat may stay hovering right around 42 all day. Then on Sunday we may rise into the upper 40's with showers redeveloping in the evening and continuing overnight. It is possible for some wet snow to mix with the rain over the higher terrain, but it won't amount to anything.

After Mon we start to get a little milder for Tue and Wed. But another frontal boundary moves SE into our area with some showers Wed, and then a new low or two will ride along that front to bring a soaking rain again sometime next weekend.

We are entering a stormy pattern. This will make us very wet. And it could give us a feel of milder air too. We could see up to 2" rain tonight through Mon morning, with more soaking rain amounts possible next weekend. It will not be overly cold, so no real snow threats, which is nice. Not ready for that yet. It can wait until after Thanksgiving if it wants. I do like snow, but it melts too easy this time of year, so wait until it can stick around then it can come. At least that is my opinion.

Enjoy the rest of today's cool but calm weather.

Nice for Now

10/23/2018

It is rather pleasant out right now, and it will remain that way into Friday. Now, that does not mean it won't grow colder. It will. It simply means the weather will stay relatively sunny and nice into Friday. This weekend is looking rather raw and nasty.

Summaries:

Wed - Thu: Sunshine, but turning colder. Frost/freeze likely Fri morning, maybe Thu morning in colder spits.
Fri: Clouds increase ahead of what will be a strong east coast storm. Rain should reach our area Friday night sometime. It will be a cold rain too with temps dropping into the upper 30's.
Sat-Sun: Rain on Sat with a raw east wind. Temperatures hold around 40 or so all day and all night, and not rising much on Sun either (mid 40's).
Mon: showers continue with temperatures again in the mid 40's.

The biggest question for the next 6 days is: will we see any snow? It is possible to see snow flakes, or even snow showers/period of wet snow. The higher the elevation, and the further NW from the coast, the more likely. The best chance would be Sat as heavier precipitation could cool the air enough for wet snow, and then again on Mon as colder air comes in with next system. I do not see us getting any accumulation, just mostly in the air. But if anything changes ...

Until then, enjoy.

Relatively Dry and Calm

10/20/2018

Nothing to really get too excited about in the coming week as it will be seasonal to chilly, but relatively dry and calm. The biggest issues to deal with are:

Maybe some flurries late tonight into Sun morning
Frost/Freeze Mon and Tue morning.
Windy conditions possible Tue afternoon/evening.
Freeze Thu and Fri morning.

That is about it But it won't last as a stormier pattern looks to develop over the last weekend of October. Could be a significant system with heavy rain, wind.

Until then, enjoy.