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Changes are Coming

9/21/2018

Autumn arrives this Sunday, Sep 23rd. And after today it will fell more like Autumn. A summer feel for today, IF THE SUN breaks through the clouds. If it does temperatures would make a run to 80 or above. Not sure if we get enough sun though. So mid 70's is probably it. And probably it for summer. Just in time for Autumn.

Highs will reach the 60's for most of next week except for Wed. But even then only low to mid 70's and that for only one day. Times are changing. Cool air moves in tonight and remains with only temporary retreats from here on out it seems.

Our first step down is this weekend into next week The next comes next Fri/Sat. Then early the following week. Not sure how it will all play out, but by the time we get to early Oct frost could be very well be a threat. But Oct usually does that. So not a huge surprise.

Each front will have its own showers/periods of rain with it. Some could be heavy. But the excessive flash flooding rains are done for now. We should stay wet though Autumn. Our first wet period is later Mon - early Wed. Some moisture from the south will move up on Monday into Tuesday and bring a soaking rain to our area. Expect about an inch of rain. Then the front moves through late Tue into Wed. That could bring another half inch.

We dry out then another front come late Fri into Sat and that could bring another half inch to one inch of rain.

Again, wet, but not excessive.

If you are looking for cooler fall-like days ... your wish is about to be granted.

enjoy.

A Few Showers, but Autumn is Coming ...

9/18/2018

When I look back at my forecast for the remnants of Flo, it was going well, through Monday afternoon, however the heavy showers and storms did not materialize as I thought they would have. There were some that developed in northern VA and moved NE, not N like I expected. This led to some heavy rains for portions of SE PA. Checking the reports some areas saw over 2" of rain. Also, another heavy band (no thunderstorms just rain) developed from north central PA to Albany NY. So the potential was there, but the system got strung out.

Strung out? Yes, strung out. Like stretching a rubber band, as it is stretched the rubber band gets thinner. Think of that as precipitation. As it was stretched, it became thinner and less concentrated. Not that I am complaining. I just like to have an accurate forecast. But after all the rain we've had, I guess only 1" (plus of minus a little) seems like very little.

This was probably our last real flash flood threat of the year as we begin to transition to a more autumn pattern. It will remain mild/warm through Fri, but then a cooler change occurs. After this weekend, do not expect to see 80 degrees too often. Maybe once or twice, but summer is over.

We should still stay moist/wet but the storms will give us heavy rain over the better part of a day, rather than a couple of hours. Over-all I am looking for a good cool down with refreshing air, and lower humidity. We've endured a lot of it this year, and drier air would be welcome.

Enjoy.

Full update later.

Where Will Flo Go?

9/15/2018

Hurricane Florence is not going very far very fast leading to a very bad situation in primarily NC. Pray for folks to just be smart and safe. It will end. The water will recede.

Will Flo or the remnants thereof, impact us? If yes, how strongly will we be impacted?

First: Yes, the remnants of Flo will come across our area Late Mon - Tue.

Second, a bout of heavy rain may move through Mon afternoon/evening and then a couple rounds of heavy showers/thunderstorms will impact us Mon night through much of Tue. This should lead to a widespread 2-4” with locally higher amounts.

I am going higher than virtually all models, because …

We are dealing with the tropical system. Precipitation rates will be efficient, thus under-forecast.
This is not a 48-hour duration event. It may rain for 12 hours.
Very high levels of moisture in the atmosphere, will be able to unload a lot of rain in a short period of time, esp. if you have S-N moving thunderstorms.

These reasons lead me to believe that flash flooding is our biggest threat. This can lead to river flooding, but not always. The river flood threat should be more west and north of our area.

After Flo moves away, we dry out for two days.

Until then enjoy.

All About Florence

9/11/2018

Latest on Hurricane Florence for our area:

General idea: The track of the storm seems to be to coastal NC then painfully slow meandering from SC to VA. Where exactly it meanders is very uncertain. So, we shall not guess because no one knows what to guess.

What is known is that a frontal system then approaches on about Tue of next week and that trough will likely pull Florence or what remains of her, northward. This would bring us “remnant rains”. Just for reference, the rains we got Sat-Mon was from remnant rains of Tropical Storm Gordon. So, we could still get quite a lot of rain out of the remnants of Florence early next week. But that is about a week away ... (for residents in NC/SC/VA it is about 2 days away. Pray the residents are wise and head away from coastline. It will be bad on the coast, and it will last for some time, as this storm will be moving slow).

Until then this is what to expect the rest of this week:

Wednesday: lots of clouds. Some breaks at times. Showers likely. Some heavy rain is also possible.
Thursday: Some sun, but clouds still prevail. Showers are likely.
Friday: Lots of clouds yet. A peek or two of sunshine. Turning breezy. Showers are also possible.
Saturday: At least partly sunny. Passing shower, but mostly dry. Breezy at times.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. I think the high keeps the clouds thin, and the sun prevails for the most part as Florence stays south.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny.
Tuesday: Increasing/thickening clouds. Rain arrives?

Note: It will be humid throughout the forecast.

Enjoy.

Wet Weather Returns

9/8/2018

My concern for heavier rain (via showers and storms Sun night) from the previous post, was a good call. It won’t be exactly as I feared, but the heavier rain is coming, and it will be widespread. This rain is from the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon and an interaction with a frontal boundary that moved through Late Thursday. one good note is that we did not get widespread heavy rain on Thu or Fri, although some did have spotty heavy rain (ex: Reading over 2” and Philly over 4”).

The rain will begin later today and be light and spotty but become steady and heavier overnight. It will fall heavy at times tomorrow into tomorrow night. A lull is likely to occur late Sun night into Mon morning, before more showers and storms develop for later Mon into Mon night. Expect a widespread 2-4” with locally higher amounts possible. Streams/creeks/rivers will rise significantly, and some flooding is possible, exp. In low lying areas.

Western PA is going to be hit hard, with widespread flooding likely from a solid 4-8” rain, with higher amounts possible. Not a good situation in the mountains (Ohio Valley is also going to be flooded with 5-9” of rain).

Once the rain moves out, a quasi-frontal boundary may stall in our area, stretching from New England to NC. This could act as a focus for showers and storms to develop on Tue - Thu afternoons keeping us very wet.

Then attention turns to Florence (likely a major hurricane by Thu of next week). Will it impact us directly or not?

Right now, we do not know. It is my opinion that it will impact the east coast late next week and next weekend. The moisture from it could track right into our area, go west of our area or stay east. I cannot say which scenario is correct. No matter what it does, due to the amount of rain in the east and Midwest this summer, flooding is likely to occur from wherever Florence tracks, and in some cases, it could be severe.

But until then, enjoy the cooler weather, pray it does not flood so we can relax for a few days.

September 06th, 2018

9/6/2018

Changes,, andt more of the same.

That is a good summary for the next 7 days. The changes include the ending of this hot spell, and the entrance of a possible impact from a hurricane. More of the same include potential for heavy rain, and the presence of more humid weather. Let’s take it one at a time.

Hot Spell Ending: It will end with some heavy showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening.
More Humid Weather: Friday will be cooler, but it will still be humid. We will get a break from the humidity on Sat/Sun but it will return for Monday.
Heavy Rain: Today and Fri with the showers/storms. Possibly Sun night and Mon with the remnants of Gordon.
Hurricane Florence: It is likely to threaten the east coast, but how far west it comes is a big question for several reasons:
1. Exact hurricane track forecasting is very poor beyond 3 days.
2. Models often understate the strength of ridges supported by warm ocean temperatures, and love to knock them down too fast.
3. Major hurricanes can help support the western extent of a ridge and help push itself further west. This can happen, has happened, but does not mean it will happen.

Before we jump on that “hype train” we have some weather to contend with: (Rant: saw a post by one meteorologist complaining about “overhyping weather” when 4 hours earlier he posted a screen shot of a video he did with the most extreme model forecast of Florence sitting just off the NJ coast pounding the region. Maybe he was complaining about himself … )

The storms that occur today/this evening will produce some very heavy rain, and will be slow moving, as the front will be stalling out. This could produce some localized flash flooding issues in the areas that get hit the hardest. I would expect on average .5” – 1” rain for most, but much more in those isolated areas. More rain is likely Fri and it too could be heavy and slow moving. Another .5” is possible for most.

Saturday and Sunday appear dry for the most part but areas of low clouds and fog on the ridges with some drizzle is possible, esp. early in the day.

Next issue is the remnants of Gordon. The good news is that the bulk of the rain will remain to our NW as the steadiest and heaviest rain moves from the Ohio Valley to the St Lawrence Valley. NW half of PA will be impacted with this steady heavy rain. The further NW, the more rain one will receive. But I am concerned about being on the SE side of a system with tropical or partial tropical origins. Thunderstorms are notorious for firing at night in tropical airmasses and the SE side is the region it usually occurs. Could they do so and impact us Sun night/early Monday?

One element that may prevent this is the fact that we will be cool/stable air dammed Sun night until the warm front lifts north on Monday.

We will know more in a couple of days regarding Gordon remnants and Florence. Until then, enjoy.

September 04th, 2018

9/4/2018

Let the Heat Continue!

I will not quibble with the declarations of "Heat Wave" for this week. Been down that road, and no sense doing it anymore. It will be close to 90 today through Thursday. It will be humid too. Today is probably the most comfortable day as the humidity will be slightly lower.

Our weather, as expected from a few weeks back, is being dominated by the western Atlantic Ridge. It is the big Boy on the block right now. And it should be dominant throughout most the month. It will get knocked down a couple of times, but it will return quickly. This means:

Warm to hot conditions will continue.
Battle between the growing cool early autumn air in Canada and the warmth in the US will be strong. This will lead to heavy rains along the fronts between the two. Most of that will be to our north, however, at times it will drop south toward us. This will mean some heavy rain for us as well. The next shot is this weekend (Fri-Sun)
The Humidity will remain high for the most part as warm moist air is brought up from the Gulf of Mexico.
Threats or rumors of threats concerning Tropical storms.

Tropics:

The first being Gordon in the Gulf. His moisture will aid the front this weekend, but the bulk of his influence will remain west of our area.
The second being Florence. She is a threat the East Coast ... if she misses the trough in the Atlantic ... if not she curves NE out to sea, but if she misses it, she heads west to the east coast by the middle to later part of next week (9-15).
The third being a potential tropical storm just off of Africa. The pattern is favorable for it to develop and head east. It could be a threat as it will be south of Florence.

Overview for the next 4 weeks:

Warm and Humid much of the time.
Battles between fall and summer from the Great Lakes through New England will lead to heavy rain and flooding. The battle will occasionally dip south into PA and the Northern Mid-Atlantic.
Threats from the Tropics will be handled one at a time.

Never a dull moment. Enjoy!

August 31st, 2018

8/31/2018

The ending of summer ... at least that is what many say ... comes with Labor Day Weekend. So, the summer ends, but tell that to the weather.

It will feel like summer for all of next week, and probably beyond. September is looking warm, esp. to start. Not sure about precipitation ... could go either way, above or below normal. Probably above because we've been so wet and its wet to our west for the most part. So above normal precipitation is likely for September. But we shall see. Temperatures will most certainly be above to well above average ... in my humble opinion.

Labor Day weekend will start wet (today), grow less wet (Sat and Sun) and then end mostly dry (Labor Day). It will start cool (Today), grow milder (Sat), warm (Sun) and then close to hot (Labor Day). One common theme: it will be humid the whole time.

I do not see much of a break in this warm to hot and humid pattern through the first half of the month. So, I guess we might want to just get used to it and enjoy as best you can because before we know it, cool nights and fall like weather will begin to appear as we slide toward winter. Remember it can snow and stick 2 months from now.

Yes, the Pattern Has Shifted - Lunch Update

8/29/2018

During lunch I had the time to look at the weather for the next 24 hours more closely. Based on observations, I will make a couple adjustments.

1) A leading line of thunderstorms will be well ahead of the actual cold front. This will impact NW PA starting late this afternoon and evening. This line will move east during the first part of the night. If it holds together, we may get some rain after 10 pm. It may fall apart too as the support for it shifts NE.

2) A trough will precede the front east of the mountains, resulting in a lack of convergence along the front itself for Thu meaning not a lot of reason for initiating showers or thunderstorms. Thu is now looking much drier due to this.

3) A dewpoint drop will occur later tomorrow afternoon/evening with the real front passing through. The drop will feel great for the overnight and early Fri, but the humidity will return by later Fri.

A few weeks ago, I said that the excessive rains would not end until the pattern shifted. And it has. The ridge has essentially for all practical purposes, shifted west into our region. The excessive rain area has taken up residence in the Upper Mississippi valley and great lakes, and the trough position has shifted into the Pacific NW. I am speaking in general terms here. And this is more of a seasonal adjustment, not a wholesale shift in all things. Some would argue against that, but I am talking in terms of general weather impacts for the regular every day person like you and I. It has shifted.

This shift may lead to a dry, warm and very humid September, esp the first half of the month. The ridge will not disappear easily, it is well supported by the warm water off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Because of this I seriously doubt the cold front will move through tomorrow (Thu) around noon. I think it slows to a crawl and does not move through until tomorrow evening at the earliest. This should produce some showers and thunderstorms. They will be scattered, and not be widespread like we've been used too. But any storm could produce very heavy rain.

The front should stall just south of the PA border. This then puts us in a cooler NE wind flow. This will cut off the hot weather, but its not cool enough to eliminate the humidity. It will stay humid, perhaps a little less than what we have, but do not expect any refreshingly cool, crisp nights.

A stalled boundary will produce showers and storms. Most of which will stay just to our south, but will be close enough that we will have chance Fri - Labor Day. The best chance looks to be Sun as a new, but weakening front comes toward us from the west. The best day of the coming weekend looks to be Monday: decent sunshine, with a chance for a shower/storm.

Again, the ridge will dominate through most of next week giving us warm to very warm and humid conditions. There will be chances of rain, but nothing too heavy.

Enjoy. Stay cool.

Some Late Summer Heat and Humidity

8/27/2018

The humidity we are used to.And the heat is only for couple of days. A big deal will be made out of it with heat advisories or warnings as the Heat Index reaches near 100 or goes above for a short time. Nothing that is dangerous if you use your head and be smart: Drink plenty of water. And take breaks when working outside.

Sometimes I wonder how people survived in the days without A/C, fans or even wearing shorts? Esp. when the weather was even hotter? Like the 1930's when the PA state record of 111 was set in Phoenixville, in 1936. Hey, our heat index won't even come close to it this week! How did they survive that dangerous weather?

All sarcasm aside. It will be hot and humid for Tue and Wed. A cold front moves through on Thu bringing a shower or a storm, then it stalls out just to our south on Fri and through the Labor Day weekend. A new cold front will approach our area on Sunday, but it too looks to lose steam and stall out. Get used to this theme for the month of Sep. Not all fronts will stall, but it will happen several times.

This kind of pattern leads to a warm, muggy, and potentially wet days. I do not see a renewal of the pattern we had for much of the summer, but it will feel similar, and the presence of some heavy showers and storms will look similar, but the lack of flooding will be a very large difference.

Our pattern is dominated by high pressure in the east, and a trough out west. This is good for both areas. In the east, a relief from the rain. In the west a relief from the dryness and heat. In fact, some snow is likely to fall in the mountains of the NW US in the coming week. That is a big change. For us, warm and muggy will be the rule for most of the next week, as the only real hot temperatures to be found will be Tue and Wed.

Enjoy.