Some take aways from the forecast. 

Thu/Fri forecadt turned out very well. Got the rain, and it did change to snow. But it was not much. As expected. 

Now we move on to another active week. Most systems are weak. Bringing rain and or snow showers. Nothing big. 

Bigger system Thu. With cold air available, so is likely at the start. Will it Change over to sleet then ice then rain? Possible. Details to come. 

Enjoy.

​Quick update this morning.
Rapidly strengthening storm will move NE right over us or just to our east. This makes for a potentially dicey forecast. Details:
1.Heavy rain through 10 am. That is the easy part.
2.Between 10 am – 1 pm rain changes to snow. But when?  Tough call. Elevation will also play a role.
3.1 pm – 4 pm light snow showers end.
 
Accumulations:

• Rain:  > 1”
• Snow: C – 2” (2” mainly on ridges unless change to snow is early).

 
It is unusual to have the rain change to snow when we are near or above 40. But this set up is not usual. I still would not be surprised to see it end as a mix of rain and snow in the valleys and that is it. But I do think we get a burst of snow just before it ends this afternoon. We will have to see.
Note: If it does give a good burst of heavy wet snow for 30 min or more, be reminded that wet snow will accumulate on roads quickly. An early change over could be a mess. Again, elevation will also be important.
Enjoy.

If you are looking for sunshine the next 3 days ... happy hunting. Don't expect to find much. Here are some details about the next few days ... 

1. Today: Maybe a brief sprinkle, sleet pellet or snow flurry. Colder.
2. Tonight: Light sleet, light freezing rain or light rain develops ~ 10 pm. The 8 am radar picture shows the challenge (see above). There are two solid areas of precipitation (red ovals). They are essentially heading NE. One will be north of us, the other south of us. The area that shows scattered showers (dark blue) is headed toward are region. Question: Does it fill in with more precipitation?  Some models say yes. Others say no. Important? Yes. If it doesn’t fill in = very limited sleet/ice or even none. If it does fill in = more sleet/ice build-up.  My call is for some, but not a lot. (No ice storm coming that is for sure).
3. Thursday: Light rain ends early. Stays cloudy and damp all day. Rain redevelops after dark Thu evening.
4. Friday: Rain ends in morning. It could end as snow. But the precipitation also be ending at that time, thus limiting any snow potential to a coating at best. It should snow decently to areas west of the Susquehanna and north of Hazelton. (What could go wrong? Storm on Fri morning is about 50 miles further east thus we get colder faster = burst of heavy snow. Doubt it happens. But a chance does exist).

 
After that, a decent Sat. Cooler. But seasonal. Weak disturbance could bring a snow shower Sat night. Then a stronger system bring snow just to our north on Sunday evening/night. We get mix light snow/rain or all rain.

If you are looking for snow … head north. Just don’t see much of any real chances for our area over the next two weeks. Maybe it will change. But honestly … not looking good. I’m beginning to look forward to warmer weather and spring. What about you?

​Enjoy. 

First full week in Feb will feel and look a lot like January: mild/warm for a couple of days, then cold rain, some sleet/freezing rain and no snow. When it is all over no real cold either. Just seasonal.

Details:

1. Warm. Sunny Monday. Get out. Enjoy it.
2. Cloudy. Wet. Damp Tuesday. Warm.
3. Cloudy. Colder Wednesday. Rain/sleet showers.
4. Cloudy. Messy Thursday. Sleet/freezing rain very early then rain. Why not snow? Cold air mass that comes in Wed is very shallow. Only cold enough for snow in the lowest level of atmosphere.
5. Cloudy. Rain ends Friday. Possible some snow mixes in at end but doubtful. 
6. Nicer. Sun and clouds. Seasonal Saturday.

Looks a lot like January. Does not resemble winter. More like Spring. Back and forth. Expect more of the same as we move deeper into the month. Doubt any sustained cold pattern for the eastern US.

Snow will depend on just the right timing. Perhaps the right timing might appear later next weekend. But being a 6 days away ... it might just disappear like many others have. 

Oh well, if it doesn’t want to snow, might as well be sunny and in the 50’s so you can do some outdoor work.
​
Enjoy.