Midday Wednesday: 

The on-going forecast going forward looks good through Saturday (much better than Monday's ... uggh that was bad for nearly all meteorologists. A cloudy day suddenly become sunny as clouds evaporated across the state late morning. Total surprise. No indication it would do that until it did it). 

The only minor adjustment I might make is to include a chance of very light rain/drizzle/mist for Fri. But a forecast of 64 and cloudy kinda has that covered. We'll see. Have to evaluate how far south front moves Thu night, and the direction of the air flow: off ocean or land? 

Right now, I will leave it alone and give a full update on Fri morning. 

​Enjoy

Our dry stretch continues. When I stated that I felt a dry pattern was trying to take hold back in Aug, I still believed it even though we promptly had a wet week. But since then, it has been dry. So far for Sept, I've measured 4/10 of an inch. That is a dry start to the month. You might even notice some lawns stop growing or even turning a golden brown. Dry pattern is taking hold. But how long will it last? 

We have chances of rain Wed/Thu and then again on Sat. But when a pattern turns drier, and you only have fronts coming though, you lean drier not wetter in our forecast. Conclusion?  Shower or storm is possible on Wed, and likely on Thu but widespread activity is not likely. It should be scattered. Which means some of us will stay dry all week. 

Saturday's front looks like it could have a better punch with more widespread showers, but even there, some will only get a little. 

Will this drier pattern last into winter?  I doubt it. When a change of season comes, it is harder to maintain a drier pattern simply due to the clash of cold vs warm air. But it has happened before, so it could again. We've been wet for a long time, so a dry pattern is historically due at some point. I suspect this dryness is temporary and we will return to normal to above for the Oct and Nov. But time will tell. 

​Enjoy. 

Not much change at all. A few tweaks. But all in all, a great weekend is coming up weather wise. Lots of sunshine. Seasonally cool temps, and no rain. What more could you want?  Get outside and enjoy the world God created for us. Beautiful 

Only adjustment was to today. There will be more clouds than originally thought. The flow off the ocean is stronger due to Dorian, and the departing high pressure. This may allow for some misty sprinkles to fall late today and early tonight. Nothing to worry about. Just the air may feel damp this evening. 

But that all pulls away and gives us a nice early fall weekend. 

We are in a dry stretch of weather. And if it holds to what I am thinking. Sept will be a drier than normal month. The first since Dec 2017. That is quite a stretch for being normal or above every month. I am talking region wide, not everyone's backyard. 

Dry Sept means nice weather and nice weather means get outside and enjoy it! 

Again, enjoy. 

Some Notes: 

1. Pray for the people of the Bahamas. Abacos and Grand Bahama islands were devastated by Hurricane Dorian. It was not surprising based on the forecast. But it was bad for them. 
2. Pray for the souls/hearts of those wishing for it to be even worse. Some are seemingly rooting for Dorian, who is greatly weakened, to grow stronger again. Some did openly wish for it the have hit Florida so it could damage a couple of Pres. Trumps resorts, never mind the millions of people in harms way. Some seem disappointed that the storm is weaker and not going to make landfall in Fla, and may not in SC or NC and then head out to sea. It is sick that people want a destructive storm to ruin lives, end lives, and destroy property. I don't get it. it is sick. 

Even this morning, some meteorologists are 'rooting' for Dorian to strengthen. "Here is comes! The dry air is being routed out, and the center of the storm is wrapping intense thunderstorms to rebuild the eye. it will strengthen again. Be warned." Or some variation there of. 

First of all, to get an intense hurricane like Dorian to become Cat 5 you need perfect conditions. Dorian was very small, it found a small pocket of perfect conditions. A much larger storms size, and it would not have fit in that pocket. 

Second, when a storm has its core disrupted. That is the eye disappears, and/or is ragged it is difficult to get that core back. Seen it many times. It takes great conditions in the atmosphere and it takes time. Dorian does not have enough of both. Now it may organize a bit better, but strengthen much?  Not likely. Even the Nat'l Hurricane Center is saying not going to strengthen. In fact, they forecast a slow weakening. Why?  Atmosphere is not conductive to rapid deepening.  

Enough of that. I am thankful that storm is much weaker.  Now for us? 

Today: Summer. Humid. Some sun. Some clouds. Showers and storms will form, but due to the early arrival of the front most of those will be E and SE of our area. 

Thu/Sat/Sun: Nice with sunshine. Breeze at times. Cooler. Less humid. 

Fri: Some high clouds from Dorian is possible/likely. Rain could impact areas on the coast as far west of Philly to NYC but that is about as far west as it should come. SE New England could get a wind driven rain with gusts to near hurricane strength in the far SE sections. 

Mon: A warm front may approach or hold off until Tue. If it does come, it will increase our clouds, and bring a chance for a shower or two. 

Enjoy the day. 

September is begins. Some late summer weather arrives for early to mid-week then it cools down like early fall. And Hurricane Dorian stays away from our area. That is the summary for the upcoming 6 days. 

Details: 

Sunday: Weak system/warm front approaches with lots of clouds, peeks of sun, and increasing chances of showers from the afternoon on through overnight. A heavy downpour or two is possible. 

Monday: Showers and storms are likely most any time. Humid. 

Tuesday/Wednesday: Like summer. Temps in the low to mid 80's and it will be humid. Showers and storms are likely late Wednesday with an approaching cold front. 

Thursday/Friday: Much cooler. Like early fall with temps in the lo 70's and nighttime lows in the 50's and even upper 40's in colder spots. 

Hurricane Dorian: Thankfully a very small storm. It does appear that it may stay offshore of Florida (25 mile off shower will mean hurricane force winds, not gusts, stay off shore too). The devastating winds of 150 mph a mere 10 miles from the center. So storm can get close to land, but strongest winds still stay away from land. It may just skirt Florida and maybe skirt the Carolina coast or make landfall as a weakening storm. No matter, the worst of the storm appears to impact the ocean. This is good. For our area?  It should stay well SE of us. Perhaps close enough to bring some high clouds late next week, but that should be about it. 

Enjoy. 

There are a few changes to the forecast, with Thur being the day with the largest changes. But over-all the theme is the same: Hot, humid, then some heavy rain followed by much cooler air for the end of the week/weekend. 

Adjustments: 

1. You can practically forget about rain today. This is ok. We've had plenty over the last 5 days (yea, dry stretch is over. Still think a drier pattern is trying to take over in the big picture. But for now, we're moist to wet again,, however, we are not excessive like we had been. September, I think will be mild/warm and drier than average but we'll see).  
2. Tue, Wed stay the same. 
3. Thu: instead of one big front on Wed, we get one Wed, and a secondary on Thu. This will likely produce some additional showers/storms. A wave of low pressure may form along it enhancing the rain, but I am not sure if that will occur. 
4. Fri: Depends on whether that low pressure develops. If yes, then some light rain/showers could be around for part of the day. I am not convinced. I believe a few linger showers could be around Fri morning, but then it clears out. It will be much cooler and less humid too. 
5. Sat: Beautiful late Summer, early fall-like day. 

That is about all for now. Enjoy. 
​

Again, an over-all region wide drier pattern is taking hold, BUT that does not mean it will rain. The set-up we have had the past few days would have yielded flash flood warnings last year (because similar scenarios did just that) but now we have scattered showers and storms. But there has been a bit of rain this week. Which was needed for surface layers of the ground were getting dry. 

A chance for a shower or storm will continue for Sat - Wed. But Sat will most likely stay dry, as will Mon. But Sun and Tue it is very likely someone will get wet in the afternoon/evening hours. Wednesday does look wet with everyone getting into heavy showers and storms as this warm spell comes to an end with refreshing air beginning next Thur. 

Notes: There's been some talk of a "heat wave" coming to the NE this weekend and early next week. A heat wave must be 3 consecutive days of 90 degree heat. Not real-feel or heat index stuff either. Real actual temperatures. We will NOT make it. Perhaps 2 but not 3. The cities will if you take a downtown temperature reading in the middle of paved roads, buildings, concrete, air conditioners dispelling hot air, etc, etc, etc. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is a real thing. In cities it will make the heat wave definition. But go outside the city, and it likely won't. 

Enjoy.