October has been a remarkably storm free month so far, however, that is going to change. This coming week will be wetter, stormier, and colder.
One big storm coming for the first half of the week Mon - Wed and then another big storm rolls in for Thu - Sat and maybe into Sun as it lingers. It will not rain all day every day. Mon will be mostly cloudy to perhaps partly sunny as a warm front lifts through us Sunday night. Showers then move in Mon night into Tues and Wed as the storm redevelops off the East Coast. Some heavier rain will be possible, esp. east and northeast.
This storm departs by midday Wed and then anew one comes in for the end of the week. This too will be slow moving. Clouds increase Thu with the chance for showers overnight becoming a steadier and heavier rain Fri. Then showers remain for Sat and maybe into Sunday.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Increasing clouds. 58.
Monday. Milder. Partly sunny. 71.
Tuesday: Showers likely. 58.
Wednesday. Showers ending. Partly sunny. 56.
Thursday: Increasing clouds. 60.
Friday: Rain likely. 62.
Saturday: Cloudy chance for showers. Breezy. 56.
This warm pattern is changing, but it won't be all that cold. To be honest most of next week will be mild yet. This is turning out to be a very warm Oct. A prelude of what winter will be like? Or setting the stage for a dramatic reversal come Nov?
For today, a strong front will be moving through with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some could have strong gusty winds and heavy rain. It will turn much cooler as highs will only be in the mid to upper 50s for Sunday and around 60 for Monday.
By Tue it warms back into the upper 60's, Wed around 70 and low 70s for Thu in advance of the next frontal system.
Today: Showers/storms likely. Warm then cooler. Gusty winds developing. 75.
Sunday: Sun and clouds. Sprinkle possible. Breezy. Cooler. 57.
Monday: Mostly sunny. 60.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 68.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 71.
Thursday: Increasing clouds. Showers likely late. 72.
Friday: Sun and clouds. Cooler. 60.
Saturday: Sun and clouds. 58.
A mild stretch of autumn weather will continue this week. The skies will not be as clear as we've enjoyed for much of the past week. Instead, we will see a lot more clouds, showers, maybe a thunderstorm, and more humidity.
A stalled out weather pattern will result in our being on the NE side of a cut off low pressure system to our SW. This will likely pivot some possibly significant rain our way later next week into next weekend. The timing is a bit uncertain. What is more certain is the increase in clouds and showers being around starting Mon.
Sunday: Increasing clouds. Chance for a shower very late or overnight. 75.
Monday: Clouds. Showers likely. Maybe a thunderstorm. 72.
Tuesday: Clouds with some sunshine. Chance for a shower. 68.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Slight chance for a shower. 72.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance for showers esp. late. 72.
Friday: Cloudy. Showers likely. Heavier rain possible. 70.
Saturday: Cloudy. Showers likely. Heavier rain possible. 70.
The rain is coming to end this lunchtime. And to make things nicer, the sun may even come out some for the afternoon. How much sun? The satellite pics show some decent breaks, and with a SW flow, yea we should see some sunshine to make for a pleasant evening, although everything is rather soggy at best.
Heavy rain is coming starting today and lasting through the late afternoon to early evening Thursday. Flash flooding is a threat as stated in the previous update. The change is that the heaviest is Thu not Wed night. So maybe we are getting off the Wed heavy rain pattern.
I would expect 2-3" rain widespread with up to 4"+ in localized places. Why? Strong trough to our west, sub-tropical to tropical moisture connection, N-S oriented flow, and slow movement all point to at least 2" rain. Classic and strong signal. Maybe it will under perform, and that would be fine with me. All this moisture has led to too many mosquitos at my house. Some drier weather would be great ... or colder to know them bugs out.
After this storm, fall weather sets in for awhile.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Showers. Humid. 74.
Thursday: Rain. Heavy at times. Turning much less humid and cooler late. 70.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler. 65.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 70.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. 67.
Monday: Mostly sunny. 67.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Slight chance for a shower. 67
Weekly Outlook: Highlight for this week will be the large midweek system that will bring heavy rain and some imbedded thunderstorms for late Wed/Wed night. This should not be surprising as Wed's have been the heavy weather day for every Wed of this month so far. Might as well keep the trend alive. With this rain, of about 1.5 - 3", flash flooding could be a threat. This set up is a classic heavy rain set-up. (Don't worry it does not look anything like Hurricane Ida rainfall for us.)
Sunday: Sunny. Cooler. Less humid. 75.
Monday: Mostly sunny. 76.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. Chance of a shower. 72.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. South breeze. More humid. Rain arriving late. Heavy rain possible overnight. Flash flood threat possible. Chance for a thunderstorm also. 75.
Thursday: Cloudy. Rain ends. Clearing. Cooler. 65.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Much cooler. 63.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 65.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. 68.
A nice dry pattern is going on for a couple more days then some rain chances return. It will feel like summer for Sun - Wed with warm, humid weather. There will be lots of sunshine also. An last hurrah of summer? Perhaps.
It will come to an end however as a cold front slowly moves across the area on Wed night and then stalls / washes out on Thu/Fri as an area of low pressure develops off the SE coast of the US. This low may become a tropical storm, and it could impact our area as it moves N-NW or it could veer out to sea. We will have to see. Regardless, the end of the week looks like it could be wet with showers and storms becoming likely.
Until then the only chance for rain is Mon night into Tues with a weak front trying to drop south out of NY state bringing some showers/storms with it. This front may simply stay to our north and has no impact on us at all. We will see.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. Warm. 82.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Warm. More humid. Chance for a shower/storm overnight. 84.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Warm. Humid. Slight chance shower. 83.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. 85.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Showers/storms likely. 76.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Showers/storms likely. 75.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for a shower. 76.
A beautiful stretch of weather is well earned after all the rain of Wednesday. And we're on day number three. Sadly, tomorrow is looking so-so, clouds a few showers, cool. But Labor Day itself is looking very nice. A midweek frontal system will move through with period of showers/storm then nice for 2-3 days again. Nothing too exciting which is good.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy (some sun may peek out at times). Few showers. 68.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Pleasant. 75.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Nice. 80
Wednesday: Turning mostly cloudy. Showers/storm likely late. Warmer/humid. 83.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. 73.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. 74.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 76.
The remnants of Hurricane Ida will pass through our area on Wed. It is a very concerning forecast regarding the flood potential. Keeping it simple:
This is a very concerning forecast. We've seen tropical systems dump a ton of rain on us before over the last 15 years. So we know what they can do. Praying it doesn't do like some have done in the past.
Once we get through this, the weather looks nice for Labor Day Weekend. Low humidity, sunshine, and maybe a shower on Labor Day itself, but nothing to worry about.
Full update after Wed's rainstorm.
What to do with Hurricane Ida?
The truth be told, not much we can do. It's going to go where the steering flow guides it. Not much we can do about that. It will hit Louisiana tomorrow, and move north then NE into the Tennessee Valley then up to WV then E-NE into MD and DE then off the east coast. That is my best guess at this time of the track the the remnant low pressure of Ida.
What does that mean for us? More heavy rain. Flood potential will increase significantly by Wed of next week. Our soil is wet. Stream flow is higher now, and water table has increased. So the danger is higher than a couple weeks ago. Then if Ida tracks near us, a solid couple to several inches of rain could soak us.
As we get closer we will know more, but the threat for flooding of some kind (ex: typical low lying or flash flood or small stream or larger river flooding) will be increasing. A threat does not mean it will happen. Just something to be aware of.
Until then, not a lot happening. Cloudy for the most part Sunday. Humid yet. Monday, partly sunny. Humid. Warmer. Showers likely with the approach of a cold front. This front will weaken and slump south then stall and interact with Ida. Cooler air will try to filter in slowly on Tue and Wed. But after Ida leaves, it looks like a beautiful Labor Day weekend could be setting up with low humidity and sunny skies.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Humid. 80.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. Showers/storms likely. 87.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Lowering humidity. 79.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Rain. Possibly heavy. 66.
Thursday: Cloudy with rain ending, then clearing. Less humid. 71.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Low humidity. 72.
Saturday. Mostly sunny. 78.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.