Forecast looks on track. Big ticket rain storm coming for Fri afternoon – Sat morning. The set-up of deep tropical moisture, ridge to the east, trough coming in from the west, negative tilt to trough, and a basic SSW-NNE flow of rain almost always leads to 2”+ in our area. No matter what the models show, I would forecast the same amount.  It is a classic set-up for us to get heavy rain.

Flooding will be a threat too. The good news is that we’ve had several days for the streams to lower and the ground to “dry” out some. The ground is still very wet, but the amount of rain needed to induce flooding has risen some. This is good.  But the threat is still there.

The other bit of good news is that after this storm, we get a break from the train of heavy rain makers through most of next week. Not saying it will be dry all next week, but heavy rain events are not foreseen.

It will be a shame that Easter Sunday will not be sunny and mild like this coming Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures for Easter look to be in the 50s to near 60 with some showers possible. But Mon and Tue look great with highs reaching into the 70’s, esp. Tue.

This will likely be the last update until Mon. Unless something drastic changes, otherwise have a wonderful weekend celebrating the glorious resurrection of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. And if you don’t believe as I do, then I pray your eyes will be opened, and you will see the truth of Him who died for you.

Enjoy the day. 

Behind our church fellowship hall we had a big puddle of water from Fri nights rain. Now after last night we now have a nice pond. And a couple ducks were enjoying it too. 
 
So, yes, its wet. Very wet. Some flooding issues around in places, thankfully nothing too widespread, but too much water is still too much water. And, thankfully, no heavy rain for a few days.

Weather overview:

A big storm/trough is moving through today. A ridge will build in for Tue – Fri. This will bring some milder temperatures once again by the end of the week. But a major trough will move slowly into our area for the weekend. As it moves in, and the ridge lets go, a river of moisture will flow north from the Gulf of Mexico to give us yet another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Flash flooding and stream flooding will be a concern again. At this time I expect 2”+ of rain Fri afternoon – Sat afternoon. This sounds eerily like last summer … let us hope not.

Daily Notes:

• Tuesday: Sun then clouds as a disturbance moves in from the W-NW. Showers possible overnight Tue – Wed morning.
• Wednesday: Cloudy. Cool. Shower or two redevelop late in the day in advance of a warm front.
• Thursday: Clouds to start. Possible shower. Then maybe some partial sun as warm front moves north. Mild night.
• Friday: Warmest day of the week. Deep southerly flow pushes warmer, more humid air north. Temps push 70 degrees, and dew points likely rise into the 60s with will help fuel the heavy rain potential.
• Fri Night: This is the night I am concerned about. We are supersaturated. Streams are near flood or minor flood on Monday. There are about 4 days before more heavy rain. What happens if we get widespread rains exceeding 2”-3”?  We won’t have much room to put extra water. With the grass, trees, etc. still not in full bloom/growing yet, run-off is efficient. Maybe my concern will be overblown … that would be nice. But keep an eye on Fri night. The set-up is concerning

Praying you stay dry. Enjoy. 

The forecast has been adjusted for Sat and Sun. Looking back I should have seen the possibility of the storm for Palm Sunday going to our west. That SE ridge has been so persistent for the last year. Why doubt it now?  Anyway I made the change. This means a very nice mild Sat with warm temps into the lower to maybe mid 70's. Then Palm Sunday rains develops, but instead of 40's we get 50's and lower 60's. Not bad. 

Other Notes:

• Thunderstorms are possible Fri evening. 
• Heavy rain is possible Sun night into every Mon morning. 

Have a blessed day. Enjoy. 

Quick post this morning ... 

Great day today. Cooler. But beautiful. Want more good news?  Sure. Why not. The weekend is looking warmer. With Sunday's/sunday night's storm tracking west of us, we shall get warmer as it helps hold the cooler air at bay to our west. 

Sat: Sunshine. Temps in the mid and upper 60's. 
Sun: Rain. Temps climbing into the 50's, although slowly. 

Have a great day. Full update tomorrow ... early. 

Note: The pic to the left is a satellite pic from last evening of the coastal storm that developed just off the NC coast. It is very impressive. Even has an eye  like feature. Am impressive system. And too far east to impact us beyond clouds. 

Looking back at the month of March, one would find that the nation, as a whole was cold. A lot more like winter than spring. In the east/southeast is was just cool. I think we can attest to that. We certainly did not flip a switch to sudden "spring-like weather" and being mild for the last 2/3rds of the month. It stayed cool, with a few mild/warm days thrown in to let us warm weather will be coming ... eventually. 

April is starting off cool and will until the weekend. Milder air will move in for Sat - Mon. If we get the right timing with the clouds and sunshine, we should easily climb above 60 all 3 days. That will be nice. Maybe to 70 on Mon if the clouds hold off until very late in the day. 

It sounds good, but cooler weather will return next Tue and stay around for a little while again. 

Before this "mild weekend"  (our seasonal average should be in the upper 50's by then, so 60's is not that "warm")  we have a nice day today, decent Thu, and a dreary chilly Fri. In fact, temp's could struggle to climb into the lower to mid 40's for Fri. I would not be surprised if some cooler valleys, ridges top stay in the 30's all day with light rain on Fri. My reaction?  Yuk! 

No matter. Enjoy for this is the day the Lord has made.  

To be honest, this should be a rather quiet week, esp. through midday Thursday. But that does not mean we will have wall to wall sunshine either. There will be a close call as an intensifying storm will lift north along the NC coast, then north east as it heads out to sea. It will become rather strong, so clouds will be around, but the should stay way to our east. The clouds could be thin at times, but will impact Tues night mostly. 

Wednesday should be a very nice early April day with sunshine and temps rising into the mid and upper 50's. 

Thursday starts off nice, but clouds roll in and some rain may develop late or overnight into Friday. This is not a big system. The rain should be light and possibly showery.

Saturday and Sunday look rather nice also. With sunshine, some clouds and mild temperatures in the upper 50's Sat to mid 60's by Sun.

A nice stretch of weather. Not real wet. Not real cold. Not real warm. Just nice. 

​Enjoy. 

It has been so crazy this week, that I am behind on several things. Pray I get it all done. What I am saying is that this will be short. Very short. 

The forecast looks good, with some adjustments. Warm Sat, cooler Sun - midweek next week. Some rain Sat night into Sun morning then a chance for rain on Tue night into Wed with a possible coastal storm. But the storm may stay off shore enough that we only get clouds. We'll know by Sunday. 

That is all. Enjoy 

Yes, we will have a nice week this week. No big storms, as the early week system will be weak and pushed south. We could have a few showers and some clouds, but that is about it. However, it will become a lot cooler again Mon night. The cold air will push over night lows into the upper 20's Tue and Wed mornings. 

But a nice warm-up will commence Thu and Fri. Temperatures will warm into the 50's Thu and 60's for Fri. 

The next question will be for Sat. Will the cold front dropping south, and giving a chance for showers, bring the cold air into our area or will it keep it to our north?  Not a big deal, right?  Hardly. It could be a 20 degree difference: mid 60's to mid 40's. We'll know more as we get closer. 

Until then, enjoy.