Another nice spring day today. And another snowfall tomorrow. Actually, our largest snowfall for the whole winter snow season to date.
Rapidly deepening storm will move along a sharp trough on Saturday giving us a touch of rain before sunrise then quickly changing to heavy snow for the morning before tapering off in the midafternoon.
As the storm strengthens, the winds will pick up substantially. Lots of blowing and drifting for Sat afternoon into the overnight on Sat night. The winds should die down by Sun morning. It will be cold with temps dropping to around 10 degrees or so.
Storm details: Snow: 5-8" with locally higher amounts possible.
Then a weak clipper system comes SE across our area on Sunday. It could bring some light snow showers, but not a big deal. After that system, it returns to more springlike weather: 40s and 50s. Maybe 60s later next week. So snow haters ... it will melt fast. Don't worry.
Saturday: Rain to snow very early. Heavy at times. Ends by 4 pm. 33.
Saturday night: Windy. Blowing and drifting snow. Cold.
Sunday: Partly sunny then cloudy. Chance snow shower. Cold. 30.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Milder. 48.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Mild. 52.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 55.
Thursday; Mostly cloudy. Chance for rain showers. 55.
I know this warm weather is nice. Even getting a possible thunderstorm later is pretty cool for March. But winter is coming back. Not because it will get colder, but because it will snow. Yes, snow. Perhaps more than once too.
Cold front moving through this evening. Showers and a thunderstorm are likely. Some heavy rain. Colder Tuesday.
Next system arrives for Wed morning with snow. it should snow much of the day. Two keys: surface temps and rate of snowfall. It will accumulate on colder surfaces, but paved roads will be more difficult, unless it snows heavily. It could early, but I don't think it will persist much of the day. Right now, I'm thinking 2-4" colder surfaces (grass, cars, etc.) with less on paved roads.
Then a significant storm will develop for the late week, early weekend. This will be a big storm. This could be rain ending as some snow. Uncertain. Many models are now trying to show this as a colder system that could dump several inches of snow. But I'm not convinced yet. I still think it will track a little further west giving us rain and maybe a little snow in the air at the end. Expect snow if you're traveling west into the Alleghanies in western PA.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Much colder. Seasonal. 45.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Wet snow likely. 2-4" grass, less roads. 35.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Chilly. 42.
Friday: Turning mostly cloudy. Chance for rain late/overnight. 45.
Saturday: Cloudy. Rain/snow likely, heavy at times. Windy. 40.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Windy. Cold. 34.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Milder. 42.
A spring fling followed by a winter chill and maybe snow? It is March in PA. That means anything goes, including 70 one day and then 36 hours later it might snow.
First, we have a storm moving to our north dragging a front through late tonight and early Sun morning. This will pull warm air north, and allow the cold air to move very slowly into our area. This means warm weather for Sunday as long as it clears out quickly in the afternoon, and the winds pick up to warm the air.
Second, a storm comes on Monday that will push a warm front north of us allow warm air to remain or reflood the area. The longer the rains to our north stay to our north we will warm up. 70 is not out of the question for Monday. Get out and enjoy if you are able, for it will come to a crashing end Monday night.
Third, another storm develops to our south over the Gulf of Mexico coastline. This system will try to move N-NE into the Mid-Atlantic region. If it tracks just right or wrong (depending on perspective) it could give us a moderate snowfall to our area. Some uncertainty around the track, but it is very possible.
Fourth, a storm at the end of the week will come into our area. This storm is very uncertain. It looks certain to occur, but where, how strong, and path are all over the place. It could be a very strong storm with heavy rain, and/or heavy snow, strong winds, and warm air in front with very cold air behind it. Have to wait a couple of days to get more definitive.
Sunday: Showers and clouds in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon. Breezy. Warm. 65.
Monday: Partly sunny and warm. Breezy. Rain arrives afternoon. 70.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Much colder. 37.
Wednesday: Cloudy with chance snow/rain. 35.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Increasing clouds again. 44.
Friday: Cloudy. Chance for rain. 50.
Saturday: Cloudy early. Colder. Windy. 32.
Chilly & dry
The winds, warmth, ice and rain are all past us for now and we are left with a rather typical end of February weather: sunshine and clouds with highs in the 30's.
A strong front drops south on Sunday afternoon/evening and brings the chance for a snow shower or even squall esp. areas to our NE. Then very cold for Monday with moderation for Tue.
A storm system passes to our north Tue night and Wednesday drawing milder air north and is followed by another system that will bring some rain/snow to our area primarily late Wednesday into Thu. This system could develop into a more impactful system as we are heading into early spring, SE traveling storms can develop more than one initially expects. Right now, it looks rather routine. Chilly air follows into the next weekend.
Note: average high temperatures for this week: approx. 41 - 44 degrees.
Saturday: Sun and clouds. Cool. 35.
Sunday: Sun and clouds. Chance snow shower late. 40.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Cold. Brisk wind. 27.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 36.
Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance rain / snow late. 40.
Thursday: Cloudy early then clearing. Chance rain and snow early. 38.
Friday: Sun and clouds 39.
The false spring is ending. It was quite nice. Went to a basketball game in just a sweatshirt on the evening of Feb 23rd. Not bad. Not bad at all. But it is coming to an end. Colder air will be returning late today and tonight setting the stage for a winter storm.
As has been the case this year, a winter storm does not equate to a lot of snow. Sorry snow lovers. Ice lovers will be ecstatic. The main event begins after 8 pm when a snow/sleet mixture begins and becomes all sleet fairly quickly. Sleet changes to freezing rain after 2 am. It should end as a light rain Friday morning.
Total Snow/sleet: 1 to 2” with 2/10” - 3/10” ice on top plus some liquid rain at the end giving us about 1 - 1.25" total precipitation.
[Something to watch for: heavy precipitation rates could keep it as snow/sleet longer, and transition to liquid rain faster, which means less freezing rain.]
After this it stays cold through the weekend into next week. It appears dry except for some snow showers/squalls late Sunday afternoon/evening. A storm system should be moving east through the Carolina’s on Sunday, and stay to our south, but if the flow changes, it could move NE and give us snow, but I doubt it will happen.
Wednesday: Warm start. Clearing. Colder late. 57.
Thursday: Cloudy. Much colder. Slight chance flurries/ light sleet.
Thu Night: Snow/sleet (1-2”) then Freezing rain.
Friday: Patchy light rain ending by late morning. Partial clearing. 37.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. 32.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Chance show shower/squall late. 35.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Very cold. 24.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 32.
False Spring Alert
If we go back to Dec 21st … when the mild December began to turn colder, and go through Feb 14th, you will find that this was an over-all extended period of cold. A couple of very brief warmups, lots of cold, close to normal precipitation, yet below normal snow. And now we get next 7 days as a false spring.
Why do I say this? With temps rising to near 60 once or twice, we might think winter is over and spring is coming. But not so fast. As it looks now, I believe the first half of March could be very winter like and not at all looking like spring. So, no I do not believe winter is over, nor have we had the last of our snow. I guess time will tell. Until then enjoy the milder weather and rain over the next week.
Thursday Night: Periods of rain. Rain could be heavy. 60.
Friday: Becoming partly sunny. Windy. Turning colder with temps dropping. 52 very early.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Colder. Chance snow shower. Breezy. 35.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. 34.
Monday: Increasing clouds during the afternoon. 48.
Tuesday: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Mild. 52.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Showers likely. 62.
Another very nice day is in store for us. This will be a lot like Wednesday, except a couple degrees milder. Enjoy it if you can. The weather turns colder Saturday as an arctic front move through early and colder air returns. Could this set us up for some snow Sat night?
This part of the forecast is tricky. The front will stall for a time to our SE. With strong upper level energy diving south out of Canada, precipitation will develop along and behind the front. As this happens, a low pressure area will develop off shore. This low pressure will not directly impact us. Only the precipitation behind the front will impact us. The key is where does this boundary set up. That is the great unknown at this time.
Modelling is in general agreement that it sets up just SE of us and we just miss the snow. However, the ensembles are split in two camps: snow and no snow. And the models are bounding back and forth: snow and no snow. (Note: not a major snowstorm. 4" or less if we get snow). It is tricky.
Personally, I think we get into some snow. 1) models typically understate ridge strength and rush the cold air east too quickly. 2) This is an arctic boundary snow event which models do not do well with until within about 36 hours or less.
After the possible snow, it stays cold for Sun, Mon and Tue. It moderates Wed and turns warm with rain on Thu. Then colder again. Perhaps a chance for winter precipitation next weekend? Get used to a more up and down temperature pattern for a while. Winter is lurking, but milder air is also. Spring is coming. It is the middle of Feb already.
Friday: Sunny. Warm. 50.
Saturday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Warm start. Turning colder. 46 then dropping.
Sat Night: Light snow likely overnight. 1-2"
Sunday: Flurries early then becoming partly sunny. 28.
Monday: Mostly sunny. 25.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 32.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Some increasing clouds. 40.
Thursday: Cloudy. Warm. Periods of rain likely. 52.
A mess Update
A brief update. Tight schedule so this will be quick. Edits are in red. Making it warmer for Thu and taking out the snow. Got to go with climatology. Enjoy the rain.
Note: Due to the frozen ground, water will be running all over the place and not soaking in very well. A mess to say the least, but less ice and sleet. That is good.
I believe in my previous post I mentioned how we have had big snowstorms miss us to the south, west, and east in January. Now that it is Feb, we might as well add the north to our list of missing big snowstorms.
A frontal boundary between seasonally mild air and arctic air will be dropping SE, as it does so, it will slow to a crawl as waves of low pressure move along it. This will lead to a longer duration event from all day Thursday into the first half of Fri. It will give northern areas snow, southern areas mostly rain, and in between rain to ice to sleet to snow. We appear to be on the southern edge of the middle region.
After this storm, its seasonally cold through the weekend, with the chance for snow to arrive late Sun into Monday. This looks like it could be just off to our SE. But the chance is there. Winter is not over, and it will not be over for a while yet.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Freezing mist possible early. Chilly. 35.
Thursday: Cloudy. Rain. 40.
Thursday Night: Rain to freezing rain then sleet late. Temps drop to 32.
Friday: Freezing rain / sleet may end as light snow / flurries. 32
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Cold. 25.
Sunday: Sunny then increasing clouds. Chance of snow late and overnight. 30.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. 29.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 33.
Winter cold will ease off and give us a mild break, before the cold returns late in the week. We have one weak system to deal with Sun night and may give us a snow shower or flurry, but no likely. Then the next one will be Wed-Thu. This will be a rain storm for us, rain/sleet for some to our north, and even a snowstorm for parts of Midwest and Upstate NY. After that it returns to cold.
Saturday: Cloudy then partly sunny. Gusty winds at times. Cold. 18.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Late clouds. Less wind. 22.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Milder. 32.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 38.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Showers developing. 44.
Thursday: Rain. 48.
Friday: Clearing. Breezy. Colder. 35.
Side Notes on "Big Storm" for those interested.
Quick update based on observations. The snow is about over. The main area of snow and lift is to our south. This will move NE tonight, and tomorrow. This looks to slide just to our east. Meaning? A touch of very light snow is about it.
Additional snow from 5 pm Fri into Sat: Coating to 1."
I measured a nice 1" at 9 am this morning. Forecast looked great ... radar looked ok ... but it fell apart. Oh well. Must admit A 1=3" forecast would have been better.
10 days ago, my eyes were focused on a big storm that would impact the east coast. And here were are big developing storm impacting the east coast. The idea of a storm was telegraphed well ahead ... the details were harder to figure out. And there is still an unusually large amount of uncertainty. The risk in busting on a forecast is larger than normal with this storm, even though we are less than 24 hours away from the storm directly impacting us.
Why Lower Confidence:
The above three questions all have models showing the different scenarios. So it has become a Nowcast (adjust forecast based on observations ... can lead to rapid changes if need be) not forecast (looking ahead before observations).
Rest of the Week ahead starts cold, then warms up and we get rain by Thursday. Yes, this snow will melt. But with frozen ground, the rain will run off quickly. Don't worry or celebrate. Winter is not over. A brief break and then deep freeze returns next weekend, and maybe some winter precipitation with it.
Friday: Periods of light snow. 28.
Saturday: Periods of light snow ending early. Gusty winds. Cold. 18. Total snow: 2-4".
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Winds dying down. Cold. 23.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Milder. 32.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 39.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely late. 42.
Thursday: Cloudy. Rain likely. Warm. 55.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.