There is reality and there is the perception of reality. The latter is the most influential in a person's thinking. Remember that as we journey through the next week to Christmas Day.
The weather will be damp and cool today. But not horrible for December. Seasonal in many respects. Temps should be within a couple degrees of 40. That is seasonal. Normal. Average. And we will be around that for Today through at least next Thursday. I think seasonal continues and then trends colder leading to New Years Day. Forecast modeling (computers) is not doing well right now. Three reasons: 1) They don't handle pattern changes that well. And we are in the midst of one now. 2) They struggle with increasing low level arctic air. Always have. 3) They don't like "blocks" in the atmosphere (where warm air is north of cool air. They like to get rid of them.). And right now a block is developing near Greenland and shifting west. This should force cold air south into our area, and force the storm track south also. This could mean snow. Right now any forecast beyond 4 days on the models is comic relief. It will change the next day. And it has and will for probably the next week until the pattern begins to settle in. Details: Saturday: (Today): Cloudy. Showers/drizzle. 42. Sunday: Mostly sunny. 38. Monday: Mostly sunny. 37. Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 41. Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 40. Thursday: Mostly sunny. 38. Friday: Partly sunny. Chance for snow/rain shower. 37. Enjoy.
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Yes today is the peak of the warm pattern. Today will be very warm with highs to 60 or higher. Records will be set today in numerous places. If not I will be shocked. Cold front moves through tonight leaving us with a mild day on Friday but turning colder.
Then winter "returns". I put that in quotes because too many of us see snow = winter. Without snow, no winter. This is not true. We average 36" of snow a year (give or take depending on elevation.) for a reason. We also get ice and cold rains in winter too. Saturday will be a cold rainy day. Highs will be in upper 30s to lower 40's. Sunday looks nice and typically chilly. Monday through Thursday also look about the same. (Wed is interesting as a storm looks to be to our north, and another to our south. Right now I think they stay separate, leaving us in the middle with nothing). Then eyes turn to Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and the Day after Christmas. There is a signal for some kind of storminess. This would fit. A storm this Saturday and another about 7 days away. We will have to keep an eye on that. Until then travel for school, work, shopping, gatherings, parties, services, etc. will be of no issue. Details: Thursday (today): Partly sunny. Warm. 61. Friday: Partly sunny. Clouds thicken late. Rain arrives late overnight. Cooler. 49. Saturday: Periods or rain and drizzle. Chilly. 40. Sunday: Mostly sunny. 38. Monday: Mostly sunny. 40. Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 42. Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 38. Enjoy. Q: Did fall weather ever leave? Yes.
1). Temperatures for the last week have been chilly for the most part. More winterish than like fall. 2) No snow does not mean no winter. But fall weather is certainly back for the next week with at least 2 very mild or warm days ahead: Saturday (tomorrow) and next Thu the 16th. Friday the 17th will start warm, but end colder. Big Picture: Storm system moving through Great Lakes will bring a flood of warm air into our area on Saturday along with showers as cold front moves through. Some rain could be briefly heavy. Seasonal for Sun. High pressure dominates the weather from Sun - Thursday. Seasonal to start then ending very mild to warm on Thursday. Should be plenty of sunshine Sun/Mon/Tue. Maybe more clouds Wed, but then more sun Thu. Cold Front cools us off next Friday. Snow for Christmas? Starting the 20th we can start looking for snow chances. But before then? Nothing. Details: Saturday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Showers. Warm. 63. Sunday: Sunshine. Seasonal. 44. Monday: Sunshine. 46. Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. 50. Wednesday: Partly sunny. 48. Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. Showers at night. Warm. 60. Friday: Mostly cloudy. Cooling off. 50. Enjoy. The reality of the forecast posted earlier is toast for Wed. The rest looks fine and has been fine, but Wed's "snow likely" (with uncertainty) has become clear. No real snow. just some mood flakes and snow showers perhaps. But that appears to be all.
A week ago this Wed system was shown to be a big rain maker. Then a big rain/snow mix. Then a big snow. Then a light snow. Now a flurry maker. I never bought into the big rain or snow maker. But a light to moderate was possible. Well, the storm is too far SE (as I said was possible in previous post) and leaves us with very little of anything. Question: Any snow in the foreseeable future? Flurries/snow shower Wed. Snow shower possible Thu after dark (unlikely but possible as warm front approaches) then a big rain storm/front passage on Sat. Flurries/snow shower behind it for Sunday then it turns mild again for most of the next week. So, snow for Christmas? Might have to occur right about on Christmas Day itself. Pattern is not conducive until the last week of the month. Details: Today: Partly sunny. Flurries possible. Colder. 37. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Flurries/snow showers possible. 35. Thursday: Partly sunny early. Chance snow/sleet/rain shower after dark. 36. Friday: Mostly cloudy. Damp and chilly. 41. Saturday: Rain arrives. Heavy at times? Very warm. 63. Sunday: Partly sunny. Chance flurries/snow shower early. Colder. 42. Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. 44. Enjoy. The theme this coming week will be up and down. Short bursts of warm weather, and transient shots of cold. Significant storm on Sun night into Monday and another late in the week. A smaller system could bring some snow for us on Wednesday.
Sun Night - Monday: Big storm will bring a warm Monday with showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. Stong gusty winds develop ahead and behind the cold front. Much colder air moves in setting stage for system number 2. Wednesday: Weak but strengthening system comes our way with a decent amount of moisture. Question is how far NW will system be able to come? That is a bit uncertain. I do think we get some light snow, but if the storm can come a bit closer, we could get into some moderate snows. Another large system could impact us next Saturday. Details: Sunday: Sun and then clouds. Becoming breezy, esp. at night. 46. Monday: Showers likely. Windy. Chance thunderstorm. 56. Tuesday: Partly sunny. Colder. 40. Wednesday: Cloudy. Snow likely. 32. Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. 34. Friday: Partly sunny. Chance snow/rain shower. 38. Saturday: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. 50. Enjoy. A little snow that is. Not a big deal, but a big deal because it is the first snow.
We are talking about tonight from about 10 pm - 6 am. Some light snow that may give 1/2" - 2" at most (like higher ridges). Some snow showers are likely Sunday night into early Mon and they could leave another coating in a few spots. Perhaps another snow in the air situation will occur on Tue as a warm front approaches. Again, not much precipitation at all in any of this. There are no big storms in the next 7 days. Perhaps later next weekend there could be something bigger, but that will likely be rain anyway. For the most it will remain on the cool side of things (remember our average high temp is in the mid to upper 40s for this coming week, so 30s is chilly for us. Details: Tonight: Light snow after 10 pm. Coating - 1" for most. Ends by 6 am. Sunday: Snow showers end early then redevelop late/overnight. 38. Monday: Partly sunny. 38. Tuesday: Chance snow shower. 39. Wednesday: Partly sunny. Chance shower late. Breezy. 47. Thursday: Partly sunny. Cooler. 38. Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. 40. Saturday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. Chance rain/snow late. 38. Enjoy. The outlook for the busy travel week ahead is looking good for much of the nation. There will be some rain, and even some snow in a few locales, but nothing really big. For us, a nice Saturday with some clouds, then a frontal system moves through Sun night bringing widespread showers, and much colder temperatures.
The coldest air of the season will invade Mon into Tue. This will produce widespread lake effect snow showers. Will some impact us? It is possible. After this it stays nice with another frontal passage occurs later in the week with a few rain showers. Thanksgiving looks rather nice. Seasonal. Sun and clouds. Temps in the 40s to near 50. Just about average. Side note: Oct was very warm. Nov has been average so far and looks to end a little below average. Is this a trend heading into the winter? Or just a temporary bump down, but a return to mild will occur in January? Guess we'll find out. Details: Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Showers late and overnight. 46. Monday: Partly sunny. Windy. Colder. Temps fall during day. Chance snow shower. 41. Tuesday: Partly sunny. Chance early snow shower. 38. Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 42. Thursday: Mostly sunny. 50. Friday: Mostly cloudy early. Chance for morning showers. Colder. 42. Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance flurries and snow showers. 37. Enjoy. Much colder weather is upon us now, although it will warm up for the middle of next week. The pattern going forward is one that offers a cold shot, a warm-up, a cold shot, a warm-up. Fairly typical for November actually. And the period between Thanksgiving and the start of the new year may be a wintry one. Just a hint at what MAY be coming. Not etched in stone. Only God knows the future.
For us, could snow be in our immediate future? Yes. And no. Yes, because Sun after dark into Tue morning you could see a snow shower, or even light period of wet snow. Location and elevation will be a factor also. No, because it won't amount to much of anything as it will melt quickly on contact with the ground, unless you live on ridges to our NE, then a coating could happen, but unlikely. Then it grows milder as temps surge into the 60s again ahead of a front passing through late Thu into Friday with some showers, and then much colder weather. Details: Sunday: Partly sunny then clouds. Chance light rain / snow mix after 5 pm. 41. Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Chance snow shower. 40. Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Milder. 48. Wednseday: Partly to mostly sunny. 55. Thursday: Warm. Increasing clouds. Chance for late showers. 64. Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Much cooler. 45. Saturday: Mostly sunny. 47. Enjoy. Two nice days. One night of rain. Mild days. Mild night. Then colder. Chance for cold rain showers. Chance for a snow shower.
That about sums up the next several days of weather. A return to average weather after this lengthy dry sunny stretch. Clouds increase today. Rain arrives tonight and could be heavy around daybreak. But it should end quickly and clearing should begin in the morning hours. It will be mild but turning cooler later in the day. Saturday another front moves through with waves of showers. Some wet snow possible in the mountains to our west and north. Sunday looks chilly but dry. Monday looks very chilly with chance for cold rain/snow showers. Nicer weather for Tuesday, into Thursday before another cold front with showers approaches. It will start chilly Tue but warm up Wed into Thu. Details: Today: Mostly sunny then increasing clouds. Mild. Rain arrives after dark. 60. Friday: Rain ends very early. Clearing. Mild then cooler. 64. Saturday: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chilly. 48. Sunday: Partly sunny. Colder. 44. Monday: Cloudy to partly sunny. Chance for snow/rain showers. 42. Tuesday: Cold morning. Partly to mostly sunny. 42. Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 48. Enjoy. The weather is looking good through Wednesday. Then some debate as a large storm system comes our way for the end of next week.
Cool high pressure will remain in control, with temps moderating through Tue, then slipping back a little before the questions arise. 1) Will large storm move fast and whip a front through with just a few showers? or will it move slower, enabling a wave to move along the front and bring us a soaking rain? 2) Will there be any show showers or flurries on the back side in the very chilly air next weekend? Right now I favor the slower forecast. And a chance for a snow shower or flurrie. Nothing to get excited about, just that it is now November, and winter is certainly coming. Probably earlier this year than many in the past. Details: Sunday: Mostly sunny. frosty morning. 55. Monday: Mostly sunny. 58. Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 62. Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 58. Thursday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. 55. Friday: Cloudy. Showers/rain likely. 58. Saturday: Cloudy. Breezy. Colder. 45. Enjoy. |
AuthorPastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made. Categories |