Quick Update: Monday's minor snow/ice is still coming, but system appears weaker than previously thought. So no 1-3" snow and ice, more like around 1" snow/ice. Not much but enough to make for some travel issues if one is not careful.
Changeable week ahead. No big storms, just a few weaker ones giving mostly rain Tue - Thu time period. Perhaps a bigger storm next weekend.
It is Christmas. And it will not be white nor will it be sunny. Instead we get seasonal to mild temps with some light rain and drizzle. At least we got a coating of snow for Christmas Eve morning! (one reason it hasn't snowed much is that we've had a very dry month ... 2/3rds of an inch in my backyard. That is very dry.)
The coming 7 days will feature a weather war. Our dry, calm seasonal pattern will come to an end. It will become stormy with lots of clouds giving us wet and some white and icy weather.
It all begins tonight. A weak system (1) will bring a few rain showers. Then another system (2) rapidly comes east to give us periods of light rain and drizzle for Christmas. Very warm air will be south of our area (60 near MD border and 70s in VA). Then decent for Sunday with another system (3) approaching for Monday. This should give us our first real shot at some snow. Probably ends as a little ice, as system weakens. Then yet another system (4) comes east and give us a soaking rain Tue afternoon and night. Then break for most of Wed and into Thu before another system (5) comes east with snow, ice, and rain. This system is highly debated. The track will be key. If to our south snow/ice are possible. If to our north rain and warm temps into the 60s are possible for a brief period.
Once past that 5th system the weather war will ease off. What is happening is the deep trough along the west coast starts moving east against the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ridge. A was ensues = increased precipitation but the trough will win out for the most part, giving us a much colder and more wintery pattern as we begin Jan.
Christmas Eve: Sunny to start. Increasing clouds. Seasonal. 40.
Christmas Day: Cloudy. Periods of light rain / drizzle. 43. (I was off here with a nice surprise with a bit of sun)
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Turning colder. 46.
Monday: Snow and ice likely. Up to 1" possible with coating ice. 35.
Tuesday: Cloudy. Rain arrives by midday. 41.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Mild. 46.
Thursday: Cloudy. Showers arriving. 45.
Merry Christmas! Enjoy.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.