Update

Quick update based on observations. The snow is about over. The main area of snow and lift is to our south. This will move NE tonight, and tomorrow. This looks to slide just to our east. Meaning?  A touch of very light snow is about it. 

Additional snow from 5 pm Fri into Sat: Coating to 1."

I measured a nice 1" at 9 am this morning. Forecast looked great ... radar looked ok ... but it fell apart. Oh well. Must admit A 1=3" forecast would have been better. 

10 days ago, my eyes were focused on a big storm that would impact the east coast. And here were are big developing storm impacting the east coast. The idea of a storm was telegraphed well ahead ... the details were harder to figure out. And there is still an unusually large amount of uncertainty. The risk in busting on a forecast is larger than normal with this storm, even though we are less than 24 hours away from the storm directly impacting us. 

1. Snow on an off today and tonight. Total from 7 am Fri to Noon Sat: 2-4" 
2. Storm will give us a glancing blow. Most of the snow will be from just west of the big cities and east. New England is ground zero for this Blizzard. There will be 2-3 feet of snow in SE New England. 1-2 feet through much of New England, excluding the far western and northern sections. 
3. Before storm hits pre-snow show will impact our area today (Fri) and into this evening. It will snow lightly for the most part, with some heavier bursts. It will also stop or nearly stop at times. 
4. This pre-snow is an arctic front that will bring is more very cold air for the weekend. This boundary is a key to our forecast. How much cold dry air filters in and how quickly. The quicker, the faster the snow cuts off. The slower, the longer the snow falls. 
5. Storm pushes north during the night, and pushes the boundary a little north meaning snow intensity could increase again into Sat morning. 
6. Snow will end by midday Saturday at the latest. It may be done by 7 am also. 
7. Snow will be light and fluffy. 
8. Strong gusty winds will develop Fri night  and last through Sat into Sat night. 

Why Lower Confidence: 

1. Lots of thunderstorms east of or along storm track. Is the main low embedded in the thunderstorms (almost like a tropical low?) or are the thunderstorms east of the track? The difference can make a 50-100 mile adjustment, which gives more snow to our area. 
2. How quickly does the dry air come in to cut off the snow? 
3. When does the storm rapidly deepen?  Earlier means heavy banding develops to our east, which cuts off our snow earlier due to sinking air. Later means that steady snows continue longer. 

The above three questions all have models showing the different scenarios.  So it has become a Nowcast (adjust forecast based on observations ... can lead to rapid changes if need be) not  forecast (looking ahead before observations). 

Rest of the Week ahead starts cold, then warms up and we get rain by Thursday. Yes, this snow will melt. But with frozen ground, the rain will run off quickly. Don't worry or celebrate. Winter is not over. A brief break and then deep freeze returns next weekend, and maybe some winter precipitation with it. 

Details: 

Friday: Periods of light snow. 28. 
Saturday: Periods of light snow ending early. Gusty winds. Cold. 18. Total snow: 2-4". 
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Winds dying down. Cold. 23. 
Monday: Mostly sunny. Milder. 32. 
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 39. 
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely late. 42. 
Thursday: Cloudy. Rain likely. Warm. 55. 
 
 Enjoy.