Quick update based on observations. The snow is about over. The main area of snow and lift is to our south. This will move NE tonight, and tomorrow. This looks to slide just to our east. Meaning? A touch of very light snow is about it.
Additional snow from 5 pm Fri into Sat: Coating to 1."
I measured a nice 1" at 9 am this morning. Forecast looked great ... radar looked ok ... but it fell apart. Oh well. Must admit A 1=3" forecast would have been better.
10 days ago, my eyes were focused on a big storm that would impact the east coast. And here were are big developing storm impacting the east coast. The idea of a storm was telegraphed well ahead ... the details were harder to figure out. And there is still an unusually large amount of uncertainty. The risk in busting on a forecast is larger than normal with this storm, even though we are less than 24 hours away from the storm directly impacting us.
Why Lower Confidence:
The above three questions all have models showing the different scenarios. So it has become a Nowcast (adjust forecast based on observations ... can lead to rapid changes if need be) not forecast (looking ahead before observations).
Rest of the Week ahead starts cold, then warms up and we get rain by Thursday. Yes, this snow will melt. But with frozen ground, the rain will run off quickly. Don't worry or celebrate. Winter is not over. A brief break and then deep freeze returns next weekend, and maybe some winter precipitation with it.
Friday: Periods of light snow. 28.
Saturday: Periods of light snow ending early. Gusty winds. Cold. 18. Total snow: 2-4".
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Winds dying down. Cold. 23.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Milder. 32.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 39.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely late. 42.
Thursday: Cloudy. Rain likely. Warm. 55.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.