A mess Update

A brief update. Tight schedule so this will be quick. Edits are in red. Making it warmer for Thu and taking out the snow. Got to go with climatology.  Enjoy the rain. 

Note: Due to the frozen ground, water will be running all over the place and not soaking in very well. A mess to say the least, but less ice and sleet. That is good. 

I believe in my previous post I mentioned how we have had big snowstorms miss us to the south, west, and east in January. Now that it is Feb, we might as well add the north to our list of missing big snowstorms. 

A frontal boundary between seasonally mild air and arctic air will be dropping SE, as it does so, it will slow to a crawl as waves of low pressure move along it. This will lead to a longer duration event from all day Thursday into the first half of Fri. It will give northern areas snow, southern areas mostly rain, and in between rain to ice to sleet to snow.  We appear to be on the southern edge of the middle region. 

Storm details: 

1. Temperatures will likely reach about 45 or so on Thu and Thu evening before falling late Thu night into Friday. It may peak to near 50 if warm nose moves in, not sure if it will. Likely falls just shy of our area. 
2. Climate rule: Raining and above 40 degrees, precipitation struggles to end as accumulating snow outside of the highest ridges. 
3. Deep moisture supply will result in heavy precipitation. 
4. Multiple waves of low pressure will move along the front. The timing of the last one will help determine how much sleet and snow we may get. Early and fast = no snow. Late and slow = several inches of snow. 

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After this storm, its seasonally cold through the weekend, with the chance for snow to arrive late Sun into Monday. This looks like it could be just off to our SE. But the chance is there.  Winter is not over, and it will not be over for a while yet. 

Forecast Details: 

Wednesday: Cloudy. Freezing mist possible early. Chilly. 35. 
Thursday: Cloudy. Rain. 40. 
Thursday Night: Rain to freezing rain then sleet late. Temps drop to 32. 
Friday: Freezing rain / sleet may end as light snow / flurries. 32
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Cold. 25. 
Sunday: Sunny then increasing clouds. Chance of snow late and overnight. 30. 
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. 29. 
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 33. 

Enjoy.