Beautiful Day

Another very nice day is in store for us. This will be a lot like Wednesday, except a couple degrees milder. Enjoy it if you can. The weather turns colder Saturday as an arctic front move through early and colder air returns. Could this set us up for some snow Sat night? 

This part of the forecast is tricky. The front will stall for a time to our SE. With strong upper level energy diving south out of Canada, precipitation will develop along and behind the front. As this happens, a low pressure area will develop off shore. This low pressure will not directly impact us. Only the precipitation behind the front will impact us. The key is where does this boundary set up.  That is the great unknown at this time. 

Modelling is in general agreement that it sets up just SE of us and we just miss the snow. However, the ensembles are split in two camps: snow and no snow. And the models are bounding back and forth: snow and no snow. (Note: not a major snowstorm. 4" or less if we get snow).  It is tricky. 

Personally, I think we get into some snow. 1) models typically understate ridge strength and rush the cold air east too quickly.  2) This is an arctic boundary snow event which models do not do well with until within about 36 hours or less.  

After the possible snow, it stays cold for Sun, Mon and Tue. It moderates Wed and turns warm with rain on Thu. Then colder again. Perhaps a chance for winter precipitation next weekend?  Get used to a more up and down temperature pattern for a while. Winter is lurking, but milder air is also. Spring is coming. It is the middle of Feb already. 

Details: 

Friday: Sunny. Warm. 50. 
Saturday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Warm start. Turning colder. 46 then dropping. 
Sat Night: Light snow likely overnight. 1-2" 
Sunday: Flurries early then becoming partly sunny. 28. 
Monday: Mostly sunny. 25. 
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 32. 
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Some increasing clouds. 40. 
Thursday: Cloudy. Warm. Periods of rain likely. 52. 

​Enjoy.