The light snow for Sunday afternoon/evening forecast turned out OK. Not great. I measured just shy of 1" on top of the old crusty snow (measured very early this morning). A coating to 2" would have been better than 1-3". But it was ok.
Tonight some light snow will also come, but it is a little further north than what I epected 48 hours ago. So a coating is probably about it. No snow Tue. Just milder with temps in the middle 30's. Then cold Wednesday. Thursday. Sunshine though! All eyes turn to the weekend. What do we know?
What don't we know?
Until late Wednesday, it will be hard to nail down any real details. It could range from cloudy and windy to a blizzard. Or something in between. Forecast Details: Tuesday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Milder. 35. Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Cold. 22. Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. 25. Friday: Increasing clouds. Chance for snow. 25. Saturday: Cloudy. Gusty breeze. Chance for snow. 23. More details Wednesday. Enjoy.
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We are facing an active winter weather week this upcoming week. First, it will be cold all week. We might break 30 on Tue, that is about it for "mild" days. Second, we have 3 shots of light some coming our way.
Sunday: Cloudy. Light snow develops after 2 pm and ends by 9 pm. 1-3" possible. 28. Monday: Mostly cloudy. Light snow develops after dark. 1-2" possible. 26. Tuesday: Cloudy. Chance for light snow in the afternoon/evening. 30. Wednesday: Partly sunny. 24, Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. 22. Friday: Increasing clouds. Chance for snow late. 25. Saturday: Cloudy. Chance for snow. 28. Enjoy. That is the take away for the next week: cold. The coldest days will be Fri and Sat. Some moderation for Sun into Tue of next week. But "mild" is relative. We could rebound to near seasonal levels. before more cold air returns.
Snow or rain? A little tonight. Light rain becomes snow after midnight, before ending midmorning. Mostly light. Coating to an 1" in most places. Maybe an isolated 2". To be honest, it's more likely for there to be nothing than 2" of snow by tomorrow morning. Then just cold. Until Sun night when a weak clipper like system moves in from the west. It may produce some snow showers or a period of light snow. A potentially more significant system may arrive Tue night - Wed of next week. Time will tell. Details: Tonight: Light rain develops. Changes to snow after midnight. Thursday: Light snow or flurries ending. C-1". Colder. Temps drop during day. 28. Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Cold. 18. Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Cold. 21. Sunday: Mostly sunny then increasing clouds late. 25. Monday: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. 28. Tuesday: Thickening clouds. Chance for snow. 33. Enjoy. In case you've been hibernating over the last couple of days, we do have a winter storm coming for Sunday night and into Monday. It will have some impact on our area, but the worst will be to our west. For snow lovers that is disappointing. For those who hate the white stuff rejoice.
Details on this storm:
Not a huge storm, but a messy storm that gives us a sloppy job Monday morning. (What could change? Front end snow is heavier than current thinking giving us a couple more inches of snow or snow is lighter allowing warm air to surge north faster and result in couple inches less of snow.) Weekly Outlook: Saturday: Sunny. Cold. 18. Sunday: Increasing clouds. Snow develops after 5 pm. 25. Sunday Night: Snow changes to sleet/freezing rain then rain before tapering off by 3 am. Monday: Light snow redevelops after 8 am. 35. Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 30. Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Chance snow. 35. Thursday: Mostly sunny. Cold. 28. Friday: Mostly sunny. Cold. 18. Enjoy. We got some snow (3.5" at the house and church) so that forecast worked out well. Now we got some ice to deal with on Sunday. Totally terrible timing. Ugh.
Clouds increase later tonight and precipitation breaks out after 7 am as warm air above 2500 feet moves NE. The trouble is the air below that level is going to be cold. That leads to rain into freezing rain as it makes contact. Since we've been cold, the rain will make everything icy. About .2 - .3 of an inch of precipitation will fall, and most will freeze on contact. A royal mess and dangerous mess. Although it will be pretty on the trees and bushes. After we warm into the mid 30s by Sun evening, arctic air floods the region. And it will be very cold Mon - Wed. Snow showers and a snow squall Mon night - Tue, Then quiet through Thu maybe Fri too. A storm may impact us with snow/ice during next weekend. Not a real active week for weather other than being typical winter. Details: Sunday: Morning freezing rain. Chance for sleet. Chance snow shower after dark. 34. Monday: Partly sunny. Cold. 23. Tuesday: Partly sunny. Chance show shower and/or snow squall. 19. Wednesday: Sunny. 28. Thursday: Partly sunny. Chance for a snow shower. 35. Friday: Partly sunny. 37. Saturday: Chance of snow/ice. 32. Enjoy. Our first real snow of the year. Not a big storm. But not teeny tiny either. Details are below:
The challenge with this system is that it is small. And smaller systems can be a pain because the models struggle with them. In this case, another area of low pressure will be present just off the East Coast. This created havoc as models would jump the low to that low, and not keep them separate until east of New England. This created volatile snow amounts: higher then lower then higher then lower. Run to run and model to model. So I would not be surprised if there are a few surprises with this storm. Guess we'll find out soon. Enjoy. A rainy day for New Years Day, but we need the rain after a dry month of Dec (with only 1.3" at my house, and half of that came in the last 5 days of Dec.).
The change begins tomorrow. This is why I changed the picture. Winter is returning or beginning depending on your perspective. Temperatures will fall from the 50s to the 20 by Monday morning. Cold and mostly cloudy early for Sunday as a storm system moves NE but stays just far enough SE of our area to prevent us from having some snow (nice snowstorm for areas in northern VA, central MD, DE, and southern NJ). Clouds will decrease Monday afternoon. Quiet weather dominates into Wed, when a storm well north of us will give us the chance for a snow/rain shower but more importantly reinforce the cold air for the arrival of a more important system for Thu night and Fri. This storm could be our first snowstorm of the winter season. Details are far from known right now, but the set up is looking good for a possible plowable snowfall. Details: Sunday: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Winds increase. Warm early then cooling off. 55. Monday: Mostly cloudy then clearing. Cold. 28. Tuesday: Sunny. 32. Wednesday: Partly sunny. Chance for rain/snow shower. 38. Thursday: Partly sunny then increasing clouds. Chance snow/rain overnight. 35. Friday: Cloudy. Chance snow/rain. 32. Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. 28. Enjoy. Quick Update: Monday's minor snow/ice is still coming, but system appears weaker than previously thought. So no 1-3" snow and ice, more like around 1" snow/ice. Not much but enough to make for some travel issues if one is not careful. Changeable week ahead. No big storms, just a few weaker ones giving mostly rain Tue - Thu time period. Perhaps a bigger storm next weekend. Enjoy. It is Christmas. And it will not be white nor will it be sunny. Instead we get seasonal to mild temps with some light rain and drizzle. At least we got a coating of snow for Christmas Eve morning! (one reason it hasn't snowed much is that we've had a very dry month ... 2/3rds of an inch in my backyard. That is very dry.)
The coming 7 days will feature a weather war. Our dry, calm seasonal pattern will come to an end. It will become stormy with lots of clouds giving us wet and some white and icy weather. It all begins tonight. A weak system (1) will bring a few rain showers. Then another system (2) rapidly comes east to give us periods of light rain and drizzle for Christmas. Very warm air will be south of our area (60 near MD border and 70s in VA). Then decent for Sunday with another system (3) approaching for Monday. This should give us our first real shot at some snow. Probably ends as a little ice, as system weakens. Then yet another system (4) comes east and give us a soaking rain Tue afternoon and night. Then break for most of Wed and into Thu before another system (5) comes east with snow, ice, and rain. This system is highly debated. The track will be key. If to our south snow/ice are possible. If to our north rain and warm temps into the 60s are possible for a brief period. Once past that 5th system the weather war will ease off. What is happening is the deep trough along the west coast starts moving east against the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ridge. A was ensues = increased precipitation but the trough will win out for the most part, giving us a much colder and more wintery pattern as we begin Jan. Details: Christmas Eve: Sunny to start. Increasing clouds. Seasonal. 40. Christmas Day: Cloudy. Periods of light rain / drizzle. 43. (I was off here with a nice surprise with a bit of sun) Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Turning colder. 46. Monday: Snow and ice likely. Up to 1" possible with coating ice. 35. Tuesday: Cloudy. Rain arrives by midday. 41. Wednesday: Partly sunny. Mild. 46. Thursday: Cloudy. Showers arriving. 45. Merry Christmas! Enjoy. Yes seasonal weather will continue this week. You might think, seasonal? It's warm. Perception is powerful. But its not always correct. The early start to the month (1 - 10th) was seasonal but the middle (10 - 18) was warm with a couple of very warm days. But since Sunday we've been seasonal. Very typical for early winter. And that will continue through the foreseeable future.
I do not see any surges of warmth making it into our area. I also see bitter cold air struggling to make it into our area as well. I wrote in my previous update that the models struggle with changing patterns, arctic air, and blocking. One side effect is the error of bringing the cold air into the pattern to quickly. Many were touting a cold snowy pattern starting mid-month, then end of the month, now early January. The cold is there, but it usually hits the west first, then comes east it takes time. The other error that occurs is the tendency to push cold air out too fast and ruch warm air in. A few days ago there was talk of 50 deg on Christmas for us due to a storm will to our NW. It was a joke. Not happening, not with that blocking in the pattern. Now its 30s to near 40 with storm tracking near or over central PA. That is quite the change. It could still adjust further SW. We will see. It should remain quiet through Wed. Then maybe a weak system with some light snow or snow showers for Thu. Not much to talk about except maybe some "mood" setting snowflakes. Then a bigger, but not that big, system for Sat/Sun. Track will determine rain/snow/ice. The further NE you live in PA, the better the chance for some snow/ice, the further SW, the more cold nasty rain you get. Details: Tuesday: Partly sunny. 38. Wednesday; Partly to mostly sunny. 39. Thursday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance snow showers. 36. Christmas Eve: Partly to mostly sunny. Increasing clouds late. 39. Christmas: Cloudy. Chance brief snow/ice and rain. 36. Sunday: Cloudy. Chance rain/ice/snow. Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. 35. Enjoy. |
AuthorPastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made. Categories |