Winter Is here

Good Monday morning.  It is snowing now and its right on schedule. The accumulations should be ok. I am quite please how this forecast turned out esp. when it all started a week ago.

But now we turn to the news making storm coming on Wed into early Thu. Below is my current thinking: 

• Timing: Wed 1 pm – Thu 5 am.
• Snow: It should begin early Wed afternoon. Light snow becomes moderate and then heavy by 4 pm. Heavy to very heavy snow of 2” per hour continue from 6 pm – 2 am Thu morning. The snow tapers off around 5 am.
• Snow amounts: We look to be in the corridor of heaviest snowfall. 14-18” is my first estimate.
• Winds: Light. NW winds will pick up after it stops snowing. 
• Power Outages: Not really an issue for our area. Snow won't by wet and sticky. 

What Could Change? 

• *Sleet: There is a chance for at most a couple of hours during the late evening for some sleet to mix in. This would lower snow totals by 3-6”. Why? Sleet means less snow. Plus, any snow will be more dense and less fluffy because of milder air. Same precipitation amount, just less depth.
• *Thundersnow: If this occurs snow rates of 3” per hour for a few hours could give 20-24”. 
• *Mild air surges in and gives us 4-6 hours of sleet reducing snow amounts to less than 8” total. 

This storm is a text-book set-up: Blocking high over Greenland. 50/50 low in the Atlantic. Fresh injection of cold air 36 hours prior to storm. Big high just north of NY/VT that anchors the cold air. Deep moisture fetch from Gulf and Atlantic Ocean.

After this storm, its cold. Maybe a little snow/rain on Sunday and then again on Tue. Longer range looks dry for the days prior to Christmas (Wed and Thu). A bigger storm might be brewing for Christmas Eve night and Christmas Day. 

Details:

Rest of Today: Snow ends by 1 pm at the latest. 1” valleys. 1-2” ridges.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Cold. 34.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds early, snow arrives early afternoon. 32.
Wed Night: Heavy snow. slight chance for period of sleet early. 24.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Any light snow ends very early. Breezy. 35.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. 30.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. 34.
Sunday: Cloudy. Chance snow/rain showers. 36.
Monday: Sun and clouds. 32.
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Enjoy.