My concern for heavier rain (via showers and storms Sun night) from the previous post, was a good call. It won’t be exactly as I feared, but the heavier rain is coming, and it will be widespread. This rain is from the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon and an interaction with a frontal boundary that moved through Late Thursday. one good note is that we did not get widespread heavy rain on Thu or Fri, although some did have spotty heavy rain (ex: Reading over 2” and Philly over 4”).
The rain will begin later today and be light and spotty but become steady and heavier overnight. It will fall heavy at times tomorrow into tomorrow night. A lull is likely to occur late Sun night into Mon morning, before more showers and storms develop for later Mon into Mon night. Expect a widespread 2-4” with locally higher amounts possible. Streams/creeks/rivers will rise significantly, and some flooding is possible, exp. In low lying areas.
Western PA is going to be hit hard, with widespread flooding likely from a solid 4-8” rain, with higher amounts possible. Not a good situation in the mountains (Ohio Valley is also going to be flooded with 5-9” of rain).
Once the rain moves out, a quasi-frontal boundary may stall in our area, stretching from New England to NC. This could act as a focus for showers and storms to develop on Tue - Thu afternoons keeping us very wet.
Then attention turns to Florence (likely a major hurricane by Thu of next week). Will it impact us directly or not?
Right now, we do not know. It is my opinion that it will impact the east coast late next week and next weekend. The moisture from it could track right into our area, go west of our area or stay east. I cannot say which scenario is correct. No matter what it does, due to the amount of rain in the east and Midwest this summer, flooding is likely to occur from wherever Florence tracks, and in some cases, it could be severe.
But until then, enjoy the cooler weather, pray it does not flood so we can relax for a few days.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.