Review of the Past Week:
It was a pleasant week, for sure, and the forecast was decent if I say so, however, I was too quick with the heat and a few degrees too warm. I am really glad that I update my forecast early in the week. Instead of a real heat wave by definition (3 days of 90 deg or higher in a row) well be getting a very warm humid streak into the middle of next week.
Rain wise we just missed too much rain. Heavy rain hit the Lancaster, Berks county areas and SE of there. But that all occurred on Mon-Tue. Over all I give myself a B- for being too warm too quickly and a little too dry early in the week. Now it is on to next week and the weekend preceding the 4th of July.
A tale of two stories this week: Very warm and humid conditions through at least Wed will dominate the first half, along with a chance of afternoon/evening pop up thunderstorms/showers. A change will be occurring for the second half of the week as the heat ridge establishes itself over the Rockies. As it does so, a trough of cooler weather will begin to dominate the Eastern half of the US.[ Something to think about: this heat ridge if it becomes well established, and due to the dry ground out there, it may stay for a while … so I would not expect any heat waves for at least the foreseeable future. It ought to get wetter as well after this short dry spell.]
Sunday - Wednesday: Mostly sunny each day. Very warm and increasingly humid with a nice breeze at times, a chance of afternoon or evening thunderstorms or showers. Most of the daytime, however, will be rain free. Tue and Wed would be the best chances for rain, but again 95% of the day will be dry. Expect high temperatures to reach the upper 80s to near 90 each day. The nights will become warmer with lows mainly in the mid and uppers 60s to near 70 by Tue and Wed mornings.
Thu – Sun: A change occurs here. Increasingly moist atmosphere, and with several fronts and small areas of low pressure will lead to more unsettled weather. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase, as will the clouds. Temperatures will be on the decrease with highs in the mid 80s on Thu and Fri; with 80 for Sat and upper 70s for Sun. Expect some heavy rains in any showers or storms that occur.
Hint thru July 7: The heat will be roasting the Rockies and Southwestern regions of the US. This will lead to our being relatively seasonal. I would expect to see warm days (80s) with several chances of rain during the week. No washouts, nor any droughts. No heat waves, nor any cold snaps. A very pleasant week, with decent rain and temperatures … dare I say downright normal?
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.