Review of the Past Week:
A very warm to hot week, with high humidity and increasing rain amounts as the week wore on. It was a little too cool with the beginning of the week with temps into the 90s, but pretty close most days for highs during the daytime. It was getting dry until Tue, Thu and Fri hit. Some areas got more than we did locally. Thankfully we had no real flooding issues. We pray for those who did suffer damage from flooding and winds and even a couple tornadoes in the state. It was a classic kind of summery weather pattern with more of the same coming again for this coming week.
The humidity will increase once again Sunday and stay the whole week. So no real relief as the Bermuda Ridge really begins to crank. This upper ridge usually brings very warm to hot weather with higher humidity and afternoon evening thunderstorms. This week will be no exception. The ridge will be building westward throughout the week. That means our temperatures will increase from around 80 Sun-Mon to near 90 by the end of the week and next weekend. But that is pretty typical for July with average highs around the mid 80s.
Precipitation will be the biggest story from Sun – Wed. Our dry weather is history for the foreseeable future. With a deep flow from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico moisture will plentiful and with pockets of energy moving through the atmosphere, expect showers and storms, some could be quite heavy. Localized flash flooding is almost a given with this set up. Do not be surprised to see 2” of rain through Wed. Also, some other flooding issues could develop if we get multiple storms in one day (called training, one hits right after another). This set up can do that, but I am not forecasting that at this time.
Sunday – Monday: Warm and Humid with the partly sunny skies. Showers and storms will become likely late Sunday and overnight Sunday through Monday night. Some will contain gusty winds and torrential rain. Be aware for local flash flooding. Highs a couple of degrees either side of 80 with warm muggy nights in the mid 60s. Expect 1+” of rain over these two days.
Tuesday – Wednesday: Still warm humid, with the temperatures increasing slightly as a little more sun appears for Wed. Showers and storms are still likely with some torrential downpours in any such storms. The most wide spread activity will be Tuesday, but Wed will still have plenty of shower and storm activity around. Highs will be in the lower 80s Tue and near 85 Wed. Expect 1” of rain these two days.
July 4th: A big day in celebrating our independence as a nation. It is a day for family parties, cookouts, and fireworks in the evening. There is still a good chance for showers and storms around in the afternoon and evening which could contain very heavy rain again. It will be very warm and humid with at least partly sunny skies, leading to a high near 87 degrees.
Friday - Sunday: Gradually lower chances of showers and storms each day, but not totally dry either. It will become hotter, but stay very humid, with highs near 90. There will be afternoon and evening storms scattered about each day. It will not be a wash out by any means, with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Hint thru July 14: The stretch of warm humid and wet weather may come to an end if a front from Canada can come through early in the week. At this time, I doubt it will leave much impact on our temperatures, but it could clear us out and dry us out: wettest in the very beginning of the week, and less humid mid week until the next weekend. I expect a much drier week, but a typically warm week as well.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.