Two Amazing Days, and then What?

A great Independence Day weekend is in store for us in PA. Sat and Sun looks stellar. Lots of sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures around 80 for highs and 60 or lower for lows. Not bad for early July.  Will it continue for Mon? 

Unfortunately, no.

First, a disturbance will push an area of soaking rain (some flash flooding likely in Midwest and Appalachian Mountains again) due east from the Central Plains.But how far north will it come? Since we will be on the northern edge, this is a good question.

My take: If Chicago gets a soaking rain of 1” or more then we get it too. If Chicago gets nothing, then we are likely to get nothing also. The flow looks to become west-east by Monday, with a slight south of east flow in our area. This will take the moisture through our area, with the bulk of it in the southern half of PA. This could be our first widespread rain since the beginning of June. So it has been a while and it could be heavy.

The rain should hold off until afternoon Monday, but any fireworks for Mon night look to be in jeopardy.

Second, after this rain moves through with some left over showers Tue, the heat tries to take over the rest of the week starting Wed.

The potential is there for some 90s to show up starting Fri and continuing through next weekend, however since we will be on the northern edge of the heat ridge, we will also have chances for disturbances to move through, creating heavy thunderstorms that push the heat back. Timing of these small disturbances is very difficult at best; however Thu, Fri and Sat appear as the best candidates. 

The 7 day period Mon - Sun next week could be very wet over-all. The potential is there. The picture above is from the GFS model. It shows predicted total precipitation through Sun July 10th. Take note that this model is the driest of the major models (as of 7 am Sat).  
 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Beautiful Sunny Days: Today and Sun.
2. Soaking Rain: A weak area of low pressure looks to move from the Central Plains and head due east with ample soaking rain for all in its path. We look to be on the northern edge of it.
3. Heat Surge:  Wed – Sun of next week as the heat ridge tries to build into our area.
4. Heat Slicers: Next Thu – Sat. Even though ridge tries to build in, small short waves in the upper atmosphere will knock it back, generating thunderstorms in the process.

 
Details:

Today: 78. Mostly sunny. Refreshing breeze.  

Sunday: 81. Sun mixed with high clouds. Low humidity. Breeze at time.  

4th of July: 75. Increasing clouds. Rain arriving in the afternoon.                  

Tuesday: 80. Sun and clouds. Humid. Chance for a shower or storm.     

Wednesday: 86. Mostly sunny. Warmer.

Thursday: 88. Mostly sunny. Humid. Chance for showers/storms.       

Friday: 90. Mostly sunny. Humid. Chance for showers/storms.    

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