The All Important Weekend Forecast - Updated Sat 5 pm

Ever hear the saying" Rob peter to pay Paul?" ... well that is kind of what is going on with the snow. They are getting hit quite hard from WV to DC to Philly (not accepting flights its so bad) on north east through central NJ.  This is south of us by a bit. Further south than any forecaster that I saw or heard thought. And I thought my southward conservative adjustment to accumulations was a aggressive. Not enough. This band is causing air to sink over our region. Thus our tiny snow flakes. Ever once in a while they get bigger for a few minutes but then shrink back again. This is because of the battle between some lift in our area and the sinking air from the band to our south. Robbing us to pay them. 


If this band were to shift or weaken ... our snow would get heavier. But that does not seem to be happening at this time and time is running out to get 5-7". 


So the result is that accumulations are, barring a miracle, not going to verify my forecast. So here is the new one: 


Update on Snow: 3-4" with some freezing drizzle possible after midnight. 


Extra Note: Dry and cold week ahead. Not as cold as this past week though. So that is good. Storm likely next weekend, and/or another midweek of the first week in March, but they are part in parcel to a change in the pattern coming. That is good news indeed. 


Blessings to you all! 

Take a look at that spring time picture to the left. Soak it in ... smile ... take a deep breathe and gives God thanks and praise that winter does not last forever. Spring ... new life is coming soon ... 

Now on to the winter that keeps on giving ... 
Lots of debate among the weather world on this storm for Sat into Sun.  Debate about what the models are saying. But the best thing to do is look at the current conditions. 

1. Below Zero with a stiff NW breeze this morning means the big upper low in the northeast is not moving away quickly. 
2. Snow will begin within 30 hours from now (6:30 am now, be snowing by 10 am or so Sat).

Just based on that alone, tells me that the although the storm will push to our west, it will have to overcome some serious cold. And by the time it does, most of the precipitation will have fallen. 

There will be snow Sat into Sat night. Some ice is possible, but I don't see much. If anything it will go from a fluffy snow to a wet snow to some light rain then ending as temps rise into around 34 by sun rise Sunday. Other points of consideration:

1. This is not a strong, organized area of low pressure system. It is mostly warm moist air overriding cold air driven.  
2. It will likely be a front loaded system meaning best moisture comes when it is cold, and after it warms up the moisture is all but gone. 
3. Cold arctic air has been dominant the last two weeks. Warm air has not won out, nothing has changed to make this system any different. 

Forecast:

Fri Night: Clouds roll in late Fri night. Sparing us from the -10 degree or lower temps as temps begin to rise from around zero at midnight to near 8 Sat morning.

Sat: Snow begins by midday. It will be heavy at time. High 25 late, then continuing to slowly rise overnight.

Sat night: Snow likely changing to light freezing rain,/plain rain after 9 pm. Temps rise to near 34 by morning. Total snow: 5-7" (This sounds aggressive compared to 90% of forecasts out there, but it really is conservative. My number is based on taking only 75% of the average snowfall output from 5 different models, which are in excellent agreement.)

Sun: Some light drizzle early, otherwise becoming partly sunny and pleasant. High 38. Colder late. Low 18. 

Mon: Mostly sunny, very cold. High 20. Low -2

Tue: Mostly sunny, still very cold. High 20. Low 8. 

Chance for light snow Wed, then more bitter cold temps Thu and Fri. 

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