I have been eyeing this up-coming weekend for a big storm system. Not much has changed over the last few days. Confidence is growing in the fact that a storm is looking likely, but some significant details need to be worked out yet.
What we do know:
Moving on … prior to the upcoming weekend event, it should be cloudy to start with increasing sunshine Wed and Thu. Then more clouds return as we move into Friday. Daytime temps should be in the mid to upper 30s and nighttime lows in the upper 20s for the most part.
Let me emphasize: rather straight forward until the weekend. But we have time to deal with that forecast issue.
Until then, enjoy.
Personal Note: as a pastor, I do not like to see bad winter weather on a weekend. Too often it impacts Sunday morning services. The problem is that next weekend, another storm is possible also. We gotta get off this weekend kick. Too many weekends have been stormy since late last fall.
Question: Why do private/public forecasters complain about weather enthusiasts posting a snowfall map from a model forecast 5 days away, saying it makes their job harder and more complex, then turn around and base their 5-day forecast on one model?
I say this because of this weekend. The EURO is the ONLY model that I have seen that is NOT showing a threat or hit from this East Coast Storm. Yet, “No impacts on our region.” “The storm is out to sea.” Really? The CGEM, GFS show an immediate coastline hit; The ICON, NAVGEM, AUS, ARPEGE, and UKMET all show a hit. Yet, they forecast based on the EURO (which is notoriously bad at dragging energy too slowly through the SW US resulting in a flat storm off the East Coast until within 96 hours, which we are not yet within). It baffles me. And yet, it does not surprise me.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.