Very warm and miserably humid again today. Very tropical and very high amounts of moisture is available for showers and storms. However, there is no real trigger to spark them off like yesterday. I will say that the model guidance of the last 24 hours has STUNK horribly. Even this morning, it projects in a 3 hour forecast a decent line of showers to move through our area at 7 am. NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!
Why? The radar shows those showers drying up rapidly in Western PA right now as I type. Same story yesterday. So with the same air mass. Similar amounts of sunshine coming. Weak and weakening cold front coming through, expect about the same as yesterday. The updated details for today:
Tuesday: 85. Partly sunny. Very humid. Scattered showers and storms. Heavy downpours possible. Less humid at night.
The rest of the forecast looks good. The weekend will need to be adjusted as there appears to be a good chance for the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill to cross through our area around Sat night/early Sun morning bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain. Will have more details Wed.
The forecast over the next week is generally pretty simple: Warm and wet. But the devil is in the details. With a fair amount of rain possible, temperatures will be difficult to predict.
It will feel like summer most days, but with a wet and stormy week ahead that could produce localized flooding anywhere from the central states east through the northern Mid-Atlantic region, it feel more like a monsoon at times.
The cause for this is that we are sitting on the northern edge of a summer Bermuda Ridge. This will pump warm moist air from the Caribbean NW toward Texas, then North and NE then East over our area. Since we are in the battle zone between drier/cooler air to our north, and warm humid air to our south, we will get wet. This pattern looks to hold through most of the week.
So, yes it appears that the summer outlook of warmer than average is going to be off to a good start … but the drier than average outlook is going down in flames at least to start.
1. Lots of clouds this weekend. Dry Sat and becoming wet Sunday.
2. Showers and storms likely Sun afternoon – Mon Night
3. Dry and pleasant Tue afternoon – Wed morning.
4. Possible heavy rain event Wed night – Thursday night
5. Drier and more pleasant Fri – Sat.
6. Very warm to hot Father’s Day.
7. Temperatures difficult Sun – Tue, and Thu-Fri. How much sunshine? It will be humid.
Saturday: 83. Mostly cloudy early, some breaks of sun developing. Humid. Slight chance of a shower.
Sunday: 82. Partly sunny to start. Showers/storms arriving by early afternoon and continuing off and on throughout the night. Locally heavy rain.
Monday: 80. Partial sunshine. Humid with showers and storms likely. Locally heavy rain.
Tuesday: 84. Partial sunshine. Chance of morning shower.
Wednesday: 83. Partly to mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Showers/storms possible.
Thursday: 76. Cloudy with showers and storms likely. Heavy rain possible.
Friday: 80. Clearing skies. Chance morning shower. Less humid late.
Saturday-Sunday: 85. Mostly sunny nice Sat. 89. Mostly sunny, slight chance shower/storm late Sunday.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.