Spring Warmth and Rains then Winter Snow

Note: I put a range for today because the line between cloudy, cool and mostly sunny, warm is very close to us. And right now the clouds do not seem all that thick, but that can change. I am hoping for some warmth and sunshine, but I remain some what skeptical. 

​Basic Discussion:

Some observations for the first 14 days of February:  

• Large upper low in far northern Hudson Bay Canada.
• Large round ridge off the US West coast
• Large round ridge off the US Gulf/SE coast
• Counter-clockwise flow from Alaska to Texas to New England to Greenland and back to Alaska has been occurring. 

With these major players, with variation from day to day, have led to a wet February. Weak storms coming out of the SW into our area have brought a variety of weather depending on the timing of upper level energy, placement in the flow aloft, presence of or lack of cold air, etc.  Therefore, based on this, I see no reason to stray from this over the next several days.

This means a soaking rain late today through Fri morning and another moist system for late Saturday afternoon and night. As has happened, neither storm will be strong, but moisture is available. One will be rain the later Saturday will be snow.

Much of what I am sharing is based on observation, not models. In fact, there was virtually no support for the Saturday system until Tuesday/Wednesday of this week. Observations do beat computers. It is sad when forecasts are made that are a virtual carbon copy of what the computer says will happen …

Forecasting cannot start with models.  It must start with observation.  Some more observations below:

1. Lots of clouds today, some partial sun is likely, but how much. It is tough, as the bigger breaks on the clouds will be close, and if we get into some decent sunshine our temperatures will soar to near 60.
2. But we have a rain cooled lower level atmosphere, with light winds, and low clouds. I am doubtful about soaring temperatures as I have been all week. Hoping I am wrong.
3. Temperatures should rise slowly or hold steady in the middle 50s.
4. Expect about 1” rain tonight through Fri morning.
5. New storm approaches on Saturday with plenty of moisture from the SE Pacific Ocean (same source for tonight’s rain). Snow breaks out late in the day and continues into the early morning hours before ending. Light to moderate amounts likely.
6. Due to progressive flow, the cold air will leave by Monday, and we will warm up again next week before cooling off next Thursday.

 
Enjoy!