Some observations for the first 14 days of February:
- Large upper low in far northern Hudson Bay Canada.
- Large round ridge off the US West coast
- Large round ridge off the US Gulf/SE coast
- Counter-clockwise flow from Alaska to Texas to New England to Greenland and back to Alaska has been occurring.
This means a soaking rain late today through Fri morning and another moist system for late Saturday afternoon and night. As has happened, neither storm will be strong, but moisture is available. One will be rain the later Saturday will be snow.
Much of what I am sharing is based on observation, not models. In fact, there was virtually no support for the Saturday system until Tuesday/Wednesday of this week. Observations do beat computers. It is sad when forecasts are made that are a virtual carbon copy of what the computer says will happen …
Forecasting cannot start with models. It must start with observation. Some more observations below:
- Lots of clouds today, some partial sun is likely, but how much. It is tough, as the bigger breaks on the clouds will be close, and if we get into some decent sunshine our temperatures will soar to near 60.
- But we have a rain cooled lower level atmosphere, with light winds, and low clouds. I am doubtful about soaring temperatures as I have been all week. Hoping I am wrong.
- Temperatures should rise slowly or hold steady in the middle 50s.
- Expect about 1” rain tonight through Fri morning.
- New storm approaches on Saturday with plenty of moisture from the SE Pacific Ocean (same source for tonight’s rain). Snow breaks out late in the day and continues into the early morning hours before ending. Light to moderate amounts likely.
- Due to progressive flow, the cold air will leave by Monday, and we will warm up again next week before cooling off next Thursday.