What it is also amazing is the big powerful western Atlantic ridge. This beast has refused to weaken. It was forecast to weaken Fri, then Sat, then Sun, then Mon, then Tue, and now Wed. But so far? Strong and stable. This has pushed the steadiest rains a little further west and north than I initially thought. So the 2”+ of rain for our region is not working out so far. But we still have to include tomorrow’s rain chances before the final assessment, but right now 2”+ widespread is looking like it will not happen.
But I take comfort in this map above. It shows the northern 2/3rds of PA have gotten a lot of rain. In fact the yellows reveal that most areas received more than 2”. So my forecast idea did have merit. If only I accounted for the ridge being more stubborn due to the very warm western Atlantic waters.
Now, moving beyond the showers and storms of tonight and Tue, we will have some low chances for a shower or storm each day until widespread showers/storms look likely Sunday. This front has the look of a heavy rain producer for the much of the state even Mid-Atlantic region. Behind the front will be real relief from heat and humidity. How about temps in the 70's at midday and below 60 at night? If that sounds good , just wait one more week …
(Side note: At the beginning of this month some were speculating that August was looking cool. Even some pretty well respected forecasters from the private sector were even hinting at it. And there was some support, but since the pattern had not fundamentally changed, there was no reason to go cool. Instead it argued for more of the same. Well for our area July ended up about 3 degrees above average and about 2" above average in rain (all due to last week as it was quite dry until then), and now 1/2 way through August we stand 4-5 degrees above and about 1/2 - 1" below for rain. So persistence is winning.)
Points for Next 7 Days:
- Heavy Showers/Thunderstorms: Chance late this afternoon/evening through Tues evening.
- Dry Weather? Today, Wed Thu, Fri, Sat look dry much of the time, but each day there will be at least a few showers or storms roaming around later in the day.
- Tue Night Concern: As the remnants of the tropical system passes by to our north on Tue, it will remain progressive and that means that there could be some strong thunderstorms, but they too will remain progressive. So flash flooding threat is pretty low, esp. since locally we have not had a large amount of rain the last few days.
- Sunday Soaker? A nice trough will be taking up residence over the eastern US for a little while and with it bringing some much drier air for much of next week (21-27), however, to get there deep moisture will surge north Sat and Sun and there could be some heavy rain on Sun possibly into Monday.
Today: 89. Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Chance for showers and thunderstorms late and overnight.
Tuesday: 88. Partly to mostly cloudy. Very humid. Showers/thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday: 86. Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Slight chance for a shower or storm.
Thursday: 86. Partly to mostly sunny. Slight chance for a shower or storm.
Friday: 89. Partly to mostly sunny. Slight chance for a shower or storm.
Saturday: 87. Partly to mostly sunny. Slight chance for a shower or storm.
Sunday: 86. Partly to mostly cloudy. Very humid. Showers/thunderstorms likely.
Monday: 80. Partly sunny. Cooler and less humid.