Solar eclipse day. First coast to coast eclipse in 99 years. This is a pretty unusual event. Will you be able to see the partial eclipse or will clouds hinder the viewing? A very good question. As the satellite picture of the clouds over the state reveals, there will be some clouds around, but most of the time it will be fairly clear; however, if the timing is bad clouds may interfere during the moons max coverage of the sun around 2:40 pm. And if it looks cloudy, go online to the numerous sites that are covering it live, so you can view on the screen.
A shower or storm is possible later today and this evening. As a southerly flow develops the air will become more humid and moist once again. We have seen this set up repeated many times this summer.
Tuesday will be hot and humid. The hottest day we have had in a while as temperatures make a run for 90 or higher. But it will be short lived as a strong cold front will move through very early Wednesday morning. Ahead of this front, lots of moisture will be gathering in the warm and very humid air mass over our area. Now much of the computer modeling is showing a rather light amount of precipitation for areas east of the mountains. They have shown this before this summer … and we know how well that has turned out.
One general rule of thumb is this: when wet, forecast wet. The set-up is similar to other events: very warm and humid with dewpoints 70 degrees or higher; precipitation water approaching 2”; showers and storms aligning SW-NE so one location can be hit with multiple storms, and a trough digging into the area.
All of these have come together many times this summer, and have led to heavy rain. I would expect some heavy rain Tue evening/overnight as the storms/showers move through. The heavy rain area may be just north or south or south of us, but close enough to mention in forecast. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds. I expect .50 - 1” of rain for most and some locations could get 1-2” or more in repeated storms.
When making a forecast you need to know what is going on and what has been going on in the pattern. We have been very wet, so we go with a wetter scenario. Ex: Saturday. I went with the slight chance for a shower when I made the forecast on Friday. At that time, showers weren’t even mentioned in most other forecasts I saw. Reason? Models said no. Yet, with some energy coming through, I had to include the chance. And yet, my slight was underdone as we had an impressive line of thunderstorms move through.
Now it is possible that the storms set up in a way that we get very little rain, that would be fine by most of us since we still have excess water laying around in places. And that is more good news:
After the front moves through it’s a BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ALERT! Sunshine and temperatures in the 50s at night and 70 during the day for Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat, Sun, and possibly even Mon. Low humidity too. Chances for rain are also near 0%. Some early September like weather.
Monday: Solar eclipse in the early afternoon. Sun and some clouds. Chance for late shower or thunderstorm. More humid.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Very humid. Breeze in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms likely very late and into the early overnight hours. Some very heavy rain and gusty winds are also likely.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy early then clearing. Much cooler and less humid.
Thursday: Sun and clouds. Much cooler with a breeze.
Friday: Sun and clouds. Refreshingly cool with a breeze.
Saturday: Sun and clouds. Beautiful.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Beautiful. A little warmer.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.