Forecast is working out rather well. The moderate to heavy snow should continue to around 6 or 6:30 pm then taper off by 8 pm. Accumulations look good. If anything the higher end of the forecast amounts looks better. There will be more to our NE which is not surprising. Much colder tonight and tomorrow. Watch out for some heavy snow showers/squall tomorrow around midday. Won't last long but could drop a quick 1/2" to 1" of fluffy snow.
Note: Looking for more snow on Fri. Another light to moderate snowfall is coming into view, just as I suspected it would. After that ... it warms up for a few days. Winter is not over ... not by a long shot.
Notice in the forecast it said "snow becomes steady and light. That is going to happen. This break is not surprising. The steadiest and heaviest is coming in the afternoon and evening. I was a little too fast with the heaviest ... so we get a bigger break than I was initially thinking ... instead of later morning (thus the 1-2" by 11 am) it will be midday. Delayed maybe 2 hours ... this also pushes the ending time back about 2 hours.
This is not a big storm. But it looks to be the biggest since Nov so it is a big deal. Below is my best guess at this. There are some factors that could increase or decrease the snowfall. But over-all I feel rather confident in the forecast.
Regardless of what we get. It will get very cold Wed - Fri. Be prepared. By the weekend 32 will feel warm.
Have a great warm evening.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.