Review

Well, that didn't turn out too well. I measured just under 7" before the changeover and then another 3.5" after the change over. A total of 10.5". Not 18" and certainly not 22". 

What happened?  Overhyping?  No. Just human. Trying to guess what an incredibly and complex weather storm will do before it does it, is a hard thing to do. Even our vaunted weather models royally missed this one. The 1 am model runs on Wed, Dec 16 showed the heaviest snowfall would be just to our north (Bedford to Selinsgrove to Scranton). It ended up from Dubois to north of Williamsport to Binghamton to just south of Albany NY.  Only a 50-60 mile error in a near term forecast. Take a look at the snowfall coming out of northern PA and the southern tier of NY: 

NEW YORK: 
2 SW NWS BINGHAMTON 41.0
NWS BINGHAMTON 39.1
JOHNSON CITY 37.5
VESTAL 37.0 
1 WSW ENDWELL 35.0 
2 E VESTAL 31.7
2 NNE JOHNSON CITY 31.0 
NANTICOKE 29.0
2 SW VESTAL CENTER 29.0 IN 
1 N FOSTER 38.0
APALACHIN 38.0
TIOGA TERRACE 36.0
NEWARK VALLEY 35.0

​PENNSYLVANIA:
LITCHFIELD 40.0
3 ENE ALBA 36.0
1 N SAYRE 32.0
1 SSW SAYRE 32.0
1 S SAYRE 31.0

These amounts are very impressive. And 50-60 miles further NW than expected. So lots of forecasts were bad. We got a little over half of my forecast. Yet, in northern PA/southern NY they got 2 to 3 times their forecast. 

We live and learn. We are not in control. This is the biggest snow in a couple of years. And we already have more snow than all of last winter and its only Dec 17. White Christmas anyone?  It should hang around, some bare spots, but staying chilly into early next week. Tues looks mild, but colder for Wed then a bigger system for around Christmas Eve. 

​For your enjoyment, I've included two NWS maps that basically represents many forecasts for the state. The first on the left is how it started, and the image on the right is how it ended. Gotta laugh.

​Enjoy.