Rain, Flurries, Then More Rain

NOTE: Sorry about neglecting to update Thu detailed forecast the other day. Discussion in Weather Points nailed it. But I left in "chance of showers late" for Thu details. Oops! Guess I was covering all my bases :) 

The mild pattern continues. Yet, the changes are beginning to happen.

1. Last weekend it was sunny and warm. Upper 50s to upper 60s. Calm winds. Dry.
2. Quick shot of cold this weekend. Below normal Sat-Sun.
3. Starting Monday next week will be largely cloudy, very wet and not as warm.
4. Wet means storms. And storms mean a fight is going on. Not the same as last big warm up. 
5. Map to the left shows idea of wet weather in the east over the next two weeks.

The models are catching up to the fact things are changing. Initially the twittersphere “blew up” with forecasts from many good forecasters to predicting upper 60s to 70 degrees in Northeast Christmas Eve though Christmas Day. I never bought into it as my last post clearly stated. I was disappointed in some forecasters for falling into the trap of sensationalism over the warmth.

Well, things change. Now all but one model (and it is cooler than it was), show us failing to reach above 60 any day next week. And the warmest is Thu with temps near 60 for several hours before falling back. Tue, Wed, Thu have temps in mid-50s for the most part. Warm?  Yes. Record breaking? No. Incredible?  No.

One must remember. A warm up with rain never warms like it will under sunshine. Last weekend, and next week will show that. Rain = fight is going on. The ridge that has dominated our weather since the end of August is now under attack. This will continue through the end of the month. We could get a lot of rain the last two weeks of December.
 
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:

1. Bitter Cold: It will feel that way. Fri – Monday. It will be below average Sat and Sun with highs struggling to break freezing Sat and then upper 30s Sun. Long term average is 40. So chilly, but not bitter cold.
2. Flurries: Yes. We should see some white things falling from the sky. In case you’ve forgotten, they are called snowflakes.
3. Rain: Rain today with sharp cold front; light shower/drizzle Mon evening, Rain Wed and Thu. Could be heavy at time Wed/Thu.       
4. First 1” of Snow: Unless a heavy snow shower moves through and dumps 1” on us on the late Fri – Sat night there will likely be nothing through the end of the month.  

 
Thursday: 50. Mostly cloudy. Rain. Ending late.
Friday: 40. Much colder. Sun and clouds. Gusty winds.   
Saturday: 33. Cold. Sun and clouds. Snow shower possible. Gusty winds.
Sunday: 38. Cold. Mostly sunny.
Monday: 42. Cloudy. Seasonal. Drizzle/light rain shower late.                 
Tuesday: 54. Partly sunny. Breezy.
Wednesday: 52. Rain. Some heavy.
Christmas Eve: 60. Rain on and off. Warm.
Christmas: 50. Windy. Cooler. Temps steady or sliding slowly.
 

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