My updates are underlined in red.
This is one amazing winter. This month has been cold. It is January. Yet, it seems that whenever a storm that might bring heavy precipitation (1" melted liquid) to us, the warm air wins out. The latest info is in and I am unhappy, but this is forecasting not wish-casting. So snow totals get lowered and rain totals get increased. BLAH! I really don't like shoveling slop :(
Yes there is the chance that I am wrong ... If you want all snow head toward the NY - PA border. You should be safe there.
Potpourri Storm? Yes. If you want snow? Check. If you want ice? Check. If you want rain. Check. This storm will have it all.
Now, back on Tue I said that Sunday/Sunday night would feature snow and a mixture of sleet/ice. See post below. I still stand behind that forecast for one major reason: All winter, when the deep moisture comes north, the cold struggles to hold its ground. The same is true here, but there are differences.
1: Positively tilted trough. This means most of the moisture is ahead of the storm (think last Friday nights storm into Sat morning). This means most of our precipitation will fall in the colder air. This means snow. But the trough will be neutral (N-S) by the time it reaches the coast. Meaning, strong warm air transport. But also delayed onset of heavier precipitation. This means less snow.
2: Progressive pattern with some blocking: Storms move along at a decent clip, but not as fast as last Fri/Sat’s system, and will prevent storm from going too far north and flooding us with too much warm air so it just rains. This means snow.
3: Warm air: Again the warm air to the south will push into our area. However, it will only visit briefly. Yet, it will come shortly after the snow gets heavy. So the heavy snow duration is shortened. This means less snow and more sleet/rain.
4: Wildcard: heavy precipitation due to strong upward motion. If this materializes, and passes overhead it will produce heavy rates of precipitation. This process keeps the atmosphere cooler. This means more snow and sleet and less rain. This is about the only thing that could give more snow right now. Cannot forecast until a few hours before, though.
In summary, I am going with the warmer solution. I cannot get past what has happened so far this winter. Every major precipitation producing storm (except for the Blizzard which missed us anyway) has pulled in warm air. Things are a little different now so more snow is possible, but I am still going with a warmer forecast.
This system reminds a lot of the bad Valentine’s Day Storm about 10 years ago that shut down the interstates in the area due to snow/sleet/rain then back to snow that froze everything into a 6"
glacier. Not the same. Just some similarities.
Any adjustments needed will be made sometime late this evening.
Today: sunny and cold. High: 22. Low. 8 with clouds increasing late at night.
Sunday: Filtered sunshine early, but clouds thicken. Light snow breaking out late afternoon. High: 28. Low: 32 as temps rise slowly. Heavy snow breaks out late evening and continues until mixing with/changing to sleet after 2 am.
Monday: Any ice/rain possibly changing back to some snow by 10 am before ending by early afternoon. Turing sharply colder freezing everything solid. High: 34 early, but falling. Low: 5 with strong gusty winds. Very cold at night.
Snow totals: About 3” then sleet/ice/rain, possibly back to 1" snow. (I still really dislike this forecast)
Tuesday: Windy to start. Sunshine and few clouds. Very cold. High: 14. Low: 0.
Wed – Thu: Sunshine and clouds. Nice mid-winter weather. Highs: mow to mid-20s. Lows: 10-15.
Thu – Fri: Next weather system to watch. Possible snow arriving Thu into Fri. Several inches are possible, but so is this year’s specialty … warm air for sleet/rain.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.