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Faithful Forecast

A Forecast for Southern Schuylkill and Northern Lebanon County  

One Tough Winter Storm Forecast - Update

11/14/2018

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All storms are tough to forecast ... but there is normal tough ...and there is abnormal tough ... this coming storm is beyond normal. It is downright difficult. What do I mean? 
  1. Private forecasters are in disagreement. Some going warm. Some going cold. Not snow. Lots of snow. Lots of ice. Little ice. 
  2. Computer models are in disagreement. They range from 12" to 2" even though we are about 22 hours away from the storm beginning. 
  3. Odd Set-Up. What I mean is the intensity of the low level cold air. The tenacity of the high pressure area that does not want to move out of New England is unusual for mid-November. 
  4. Going Against the Norm: the computer models all show snow, some show very heavy snow, but they are doing it at an atmosphere thickness where it does not snow. Ex: 540 dm line is considered the rain/snow line. In set-ups like we have for this one 546 dm can be the rain/snow line. But some models are showing snow to the 550 dm line. Very, very unusual. 
Tough forecast, because a 2 degree change here and there in the atmosphere will change things from snow to ice to rain or back again. 

So below is my best guess. If it works out, praise God. If not, praise God, I did my best. 

Enjoy. 
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    Author

    Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.

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