Storm #3: some forecasters are writing it off because the models have a very weak system with minor impacts for us. I am not. How short are our memories. the snowstorm Monday was not forecast by any model to hit us until Friday morning, And even then it was only 1 model! It was not until Sat that it looked like some snow. And not until late Sunday did it seem that a lot would hit us. So write off the next storm? It's only Wed. It should hit Sunday.
The rest of the forecast looks good with some minor adjustments:
Today: Cloudy. Freezing rain/rain ending. Spotty showers of rain/snow later. High 35. Low: 25
Thu & Fri: Mostly sunny. Cold. High: 22. Low: 8.
Sat: Mostly sunny. Still cold. High: 26. Low: 12.
Sun: Cloudy. Snow is likely. High: 29. Low: 24.
We will be plenty cold for all snow at the ground, but it will be warmer aloft, meaning it could sleet or rain then freeze when hitting the ground. The boundary battle line between snow and sleet will be a tight one. We are right at the boundary line. We should get both. Probably more hours of sleet than snow. This is why I lowered the accumulation down one inch. There is a huge bust potential for the forecast as a couple hour change in the change to sleet could up the snow a lot.
One the good side, I do not think we get into the really nasty heavy freezing rain problem. That should stay to our SW. We will get some, but not a huge amount.
1) Snow starting around midnight. Becoming heavy.
2) Snow mixing/changing to sleet. 3-5" snow/sleet total.
3) Freezing rain by 6 am. Up to 1.4": Ending by 9 am.
4) Travel will be horrible in the morning as sleet is not as easy to move as snow is.
On to Storm #2:
This storm is bigger and has the "potential" to drop a lot of wintry junk. The kitchen sink ... or so it was thought. It appears likely that the storm will come north to near Pittsburgh (further south than original thinking). The cold air to our north is just not going to budge. It keeps the storm track more suppressed.
This storm will bring Gulf of Mexico moisture up and over the cold air. Remember that cold is supported so even as the warm air runs up and over the cold air will be very resistant to leave. This will lead to heavy snow to start, gradually changing over to sleet and freezing rain, before ending Wed. Breaking it down more simply:
- Snow arriving after 9 pm Tuesday night. Becoming heavy.
- Snow/sleet changing over to freezing rain by sunrise.
- Freezing rain ends by 9 am Wed.
- Total snow: 4-6"
- Total Ice accumulation: 1/4 - 1/2 inch.
The key to number 5 is really how slowly it changes over. This is a tough call. a 30 mile shift can lead to double the snow or even going to rain. This is what I see right now.