October 22nd, 2012

Tuesday Morning Update: As I said below under Today's forecast about the showers being further south in the midwest than forecasted ... well it is translating to our area as well. It will shower today. It may even come down pretty decently in a few of those showers. I expect most of the showers to be this morning. This afternoon we should get some sunshine. Temps will be tricky, but they should rise to the upper 60s to near 70.

Also due to the fact there are unforcasted clusters of showers/thunderstorms in the midwest. Wed will likely have a chance of showers also. More of that tonight.

Why the change?  Small or mesoscale disturbances in the atmosphere are very tricky to forecast. Since they are small they can have little impact or have a big impact on the sensible weather, but you really cannot forecast them any more than a day or so ahead of time. Today and tomorrow are a classic example of such mesoscale issues. 

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Monday Evening Forecast:

Commentary:

What a great day! And more great weather is on the way for most of this week. Tomorrow will have less sun than today and so will Wed. But the temps will start off a lot warmer and will warm into the 70s with any decent amount of sunshine. Warm conditions should prevail through Sat. Then all eyes will turn to what will become Tropical Storm Sandy and her interaction with the coming cold upper level trough. Until then … enjoy this week.

 

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear to start but clouds coming in later. Milder with temps down into the upper 40s but may rise a little by morning.

Tuesday: Some clouds early, but breaking up to allow some sunshine, but they may increase again later in the afternoon. Temps rise to 70, but near 75 if we get a good amount of sunshine. The showers should stay to our north and get no closer than the I-80 corridor (but the showers do look to be further south in the Midwest than initially forecasted out there, so I wouldn’t be extremely shocked if we do get a shower.)  

Tuesday night: Clouds will be around, giving us a very mild night, lows into the upper 50s. Some showers and even thunder will once again be close by to our north.

Wednesday: Morning clouds breaking up to give us at least a mix of clouds and warm sunshine, temps rising into the low to mid 70s with a nice westerly breeze.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear, mild with lows into the low 50s.

Extended Outlook:   

1.       Thu – Fri: warm sunshine, but some clouds off the ocean could knock temps down a little on Thursday. This call cannot be made until late Wed.

2.       Temps at end of the week could rise into the mid – upper 70s during the day.   

3.       Warmth will last into Sunday.  

4.       Big storm likely develop next weekend/early next week bringing lots of wind, thunderstorms, heavy rain and much colder air.

5.       The last day or two of Oct and first days of November look very cold for this time of year. First snow flurries of the season?

Until Tomorrow.