October 07th, 2012

Tuesday Supper:  Lousy clouds are more stubborn than a mule. It was sunny not too far to the west, but it didn't get here. In fact the clouds have built further west, and now cover the skies from Columbia, SC to Albany, NY east of the Mountains. So we are not alone in this greyness. Wouldn't be surprise if it drizzles or drops a couple very light rain drops tonight. Cool but not cold, as temps remain in the 40s.

Will they break tomorrow?  Probably some, but not holding my breath right now. If it stays cloudy, knock 5 degrees off of the high. If the sun breaks out big time, we might run for upper 60s.

Due to a different flow ... skies will be nice Thu and Fri ...

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Comment Lunchtime Tuesday:  Lots of clouds, as moisture is trapped at mid levels of the atmosphere. Clearning is not far awy though. So be encouraged. The sun will come out this afternoon and the temps will warm into the low 60s.

Some clouds may develop overnight, giving a cloudier start to tomorrow. But if there, they will break up and the sun will shine. Temps into teh mid 60s at least.

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Update 8:30 am Monday:  As the forcast alluded too below and in point #1 below, clouds are coming in from the south. Weak disturbances are notoriously hard to predict.  And this one is no different. This is a game changer for today. Clouds will dim the sun this morning, and then thicken up. Some light rain will come in later and continue lightly into tonight. It will be very chilly today. Highs in the lower 50s.

This weak system will spare us from a frost tonight as  it will stay cloudy and clear out tomorrow morning. Lows around 40.   

Tomorrow will be nice as high pressure finally takes control. See below for rest of the forecast.  

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For the week of Oct 8th – 14th

This will be a cool week, but we are heading towards the middle of October so I suppose, it shouldn’t surprise us, but the sun will make it feel warmer than the air temperature. There is not a lot of big weather events going on this week, so it will be a pretty nice week overall.  



Tuesday: Clearing skies, warmer. Highs in the low 60s. Night temps tricky. Colder valleys into the upper 30s, ridges stay in low 40s.

Wednesday: Sun then clouds. Breezy and milder. Possible shower as front comes through in the afternoon. Highs into the upper 60s. Lows down into the mid 40s.

Thursday: Sun and clouds. Cooler. Highs around 60. Cold night. Temps down into the upper 30s. 

Friday:  A weak moisture starved front will be crossing the area, bringing some clouds but nothing else. Highs into the low 60s, but turning colder late. Frost will be possible at night as temps tumble into at least the mid 30s.

Saturday: Wall to wall sunshine. Cool but very pleasant. Highs around 60. Nighttime temps dropping to around 40, but milder on the ridges  

Sunday: Turning much warmer. Clouds and sun. Showers are possible. Highs should jump into the 60s to near 70.

 

What could change the forecast:   

1.       It is possible that some clouds sneak in from the south during Monday night keeping us a few degrees warmer, meaning no frost. That call cannot be made until later Monday.

2.       As a reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Friday, it has the potential to be the coldest night of the season so far, but will the winds go calm? The timing of this front will be the key.   

3.       Cool air getting trapped at the surface by low gray stratus clouds Saturday night into Sunday as rainstorm tracks from the SW through the Great Lakes and up the St. Lawrence River Valley. This is a possibility, as it would fit the pattern for the local area.

If you don't like the change to cooler weather ... it could always be worse!  Take a look at Fargo, ND last week.  

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