Moving On ...

Yesterday’s storm is now history. It was a strong and impressive storm … for those that got nailed by it. But over-all not a very well forecast system. Let me explain:

• Poor: For most of PA from the Susquehanna River east, and east central NY the storm underperformed or was a nonevent.
• Weak: Extreme eastern PA, and extreme eastern NY the snow amounts fell shy of full expectation, but it was certainly impactful.
• Good: Urban corridor from Philadelphia to Boston. Well done.
• Excellent: NW NJ, SE NY away from NYC; W CT, and southern VT were all forecast to be in the bullseye and they were. Well done.

Geographically about 1/3 of region forecast with winter storm warnings were poorly forecast. It simply shows that nature is hard to figure out. We do not know everything. Another reason we need God.

And today is another day that the LORD has made … so I shall rejoice in it and be glad that I have no snow to shovel, no trees to cut up, no waiting for the electric to be reconnected. But I will pray for those who do.
What is next?  Round #3 Sunday night and Monday.  Got some questions about this one:

• Will it phase and come up the coast and track like the last two Nor’easters?
  • If so, will it be all snow or will warm air sneak in?
  • If so, will the storm be strung out or consolidated and well organized?

 

• Will it be suppressed south of our area?
  • If so, how far north will the precipitation come?

 
These are not easy questions to answer as of this morning. So, we will let it ride for a couple more days. But I do believe it will come north and give us at least a light snowfall.  

Until then, we are chilly to cold for the early to mid-March. The only real forecast issue is tonight into Friday morning. A strong upper level low will pass over our area, producing widespread snow showers. This could produce a coating to an inch or two, esp. on the ridge tops.

• That is all for now.

Enjoy.