Storm Forecast Evaluation: the biggest improvement would have been to go for a 2-4” snow/sleet and it would have been close to perfect. 3-4” was a smidge high based on observations given to NWS. Really, it was not a hard forecast. Track, total precipitation, and temps were straight forward. The only real question was timing the change over to sleet.
Time to move on the next challenge this coming weekend.
Again, if one were to look at the set up for this coming Sat into Sun it looks rather straight forward. Track, total precipitation, and this time, no sleet or freezing rain to contend with. The only real question will be surface temps. Will we be in the upper 30s and get a cold yucky rain? Or near 30 and a heavy snowstorm? Or somewhere in between the two? We should know by late Wed.
Otherwise, this week will be rather quiet: lots of sunshine and cold temps to start and a gradual moderating trend by the end of the week. Not a lot of wind either. Just nice winter weather.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.