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Faithful Forecast

A Forecast for Southern Schuylkill and Northern Lebanon County  

Major Winter Storm to Impact Us Wednesday - Updated

2/22/2016

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The picture below (from Tropicaltidbits.com site) shows the expected temps at 4 pm Wed Feb 24. That is tomorrow. So when forecasts say the high for the day is 50 degrees ... well, its misleading. Because during the evening the warm front should push through. Not sure how fast. But when it does the temps will jump into the mid and upper 50s. 

So I am adjusting upwards, but the high will be during the evening and overnight not during the regular day. 
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​Yes, that headline is correct. A major winter storm will be impacting us on Wednesday.  It will be 98% rain, but that does not make it a non-winter storm.  Temps through much of the storm will be in the 30s. Just plain miserable. Here are some details about storm and for the next 7 days:
  1. Cool Air Gets Stuck: The reason I held off on flip flopping the forecast over the weekend was because I was concerned that the cool air would get stuck in the lower levels with cold air damming. Well, now the models are showing that signature. And when it’s there, and the storm is west of the mountains, the cool air does not leave our area, until the cold front passes through.
  2. Lots of Moisture:  Expect about 1-1.25” of precipitation. Our wet winter continues.
  3. Touch of Snow: On Tue, some precursor moisture will arrive with the very beginning being some snow. Elevations will help in any small accumulation. The valleys may get a coating and the higher terrain may get an 1".
  4. Touch of Ice: There may be some light freezing rain/drizzle Tue night, but due to our milder days and sunshine today, the roads should be fine as temps will be marginal anyway. The freezing rain may impact colder surfaces, like trees, grass, cars, signs, walks in shaded areas, etc.
  5. Colder Weather: A pretty strong shot of cold air looks to impact us next weekend. Although, I am hesitant about this. Last week at this time, it looked like the cool air we have now was going to be colder than it is, and I suspect the same will happen this weekend, with the coldest staying in southern Canada.   
 
Upcoming 7 Days:

Monday: 44. Sunny. Mild.
         
Tuesday: 37. Mostly cloudy. Wet snow develops changing to light rain. Cooler.       

Wednesday: 45 (evening or later). Temps rising slowly. Cool and raw. Rain heavier in afternoon and evening. Mildest overnight.  

Thursday: 45. Clouds and sun. Mild morning, gradual cooling during day. Breezy.     

Friday: 36. Sunshine. Colder. Breezy at times.    

Saturday: 40. Sun and clouds.       

Sunday: 44. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Milder. Rain showers overnight.       
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    Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.

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