Well, things keep progressing as expected from the beginning of November. Since the 20th of Nov, the temperatures have begun to reflect the upper level changes that have been evolving. No longer are we in a well above average temperature regime. No, we are now in an average to below average one for the most part.
It is true that today and Wednesday will be mild over-all. But very wet. Which is certainly a VERY good thing. But storm driven warmth is very different than ridge dominated warmth. There is a large storm in the upper Midwest that is driving this push of warm moist air into our area for the next two days. Behind it is seasonal weather for later Thu through the upcoming weekend.
There should be some more wet weather Sun or Mon and then another late next week. That would give us 3 good rainstorms (Tue/Wed this week count as one but in 2 parts) in the span of about 10 days. Our rainfall deficit is going to disappear or come close to it. Now if you recall I mentioned 2-3 weeks ago about the lack of storminess.
The storms are now coming. And at now in the 7 day forecast one can see true Arctic Air appear in North America for the first time this season. The cold is coming too, but the storms had to come. They are coming and so is the cold. It will hit the western US first, and then spread east. We about 10 days away from seeing the winter pattern locking in.
What does that mean?
- Presence of true arctic air in pattern.
- Snow and Ice chances become routine.
- Rain can still happen as storm track can be to our west. But it starts with snow/ice. This can result in a warm surge for 24-36 hours on occasion before cold returns.
Back to the Upcoming 7 days …
- Mild with rain today and Wednesday. Some will be on the heavy side. Expect around 2” rain by Thursday morning.
- Breezy Thursday but mild. Cooler esp. at night.
- Seasonal Friday and Saturday.
- LOTS OF UNCETAINTY ABOUT NEXT STORM: depends on how it moves through the SW US. Models tend to move them too slowly. If it comes out earlier, then rain arrives Sunday/Sunday night with the chance of it starting as a little snow. If it is slower, then it’s a rainy Mon night and Tue.