Yes, our heat wave is ending. And yes it did get hotter than I expected over the weekend by 3-4 degrees, but no heat advisories/warnings were met Sat and Sun as humidity lowered Sat and stayed low until late Sun. So the forecast concept was correct, just too cool on the weekend.
Monday was spot on for being hot and uncomfortable, yet even then we barely reached heat advisory levels and only for a brief time as thunderstorms developed by early afternoon and lowered our temps. Our “extreme” and “dangerous” heat was not so extreme nor so dangerous: In the heat just be smart, and stay hydrated and you’ll do well.
Yesterday’s rain was a blessing for many people in the state. Lots of areas are dry to very dry and this rain was fairly widespread. Very beneficial for many. Additional good news: a heavy soaking rain is possible Fri.
Now, what would cause this if the pattern is basically the same?
Well for starters, the basic idea of a ridge to our west, and a trough in our area continues. Even this past weekend, a weakness on the ridge was found nearby, as the strength of the ridge was to our west. This was the main reason for not going with the extreme heat. Now, that ridge is weakening, and the trough strengthening the opportunity to bring some rain is upon us because …
At the same time, some disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico (see picture above) will be impacting LA, MS, AL and extreme east TX coastlines. This moisture will move north then northeast, as it gets picked up by our trough. This could then help generate a heavy soaking rain to our region on Friday. I suspect that the bulk of it will be SE of a Clearfield to Binghamton line. It could produce over 1” of rain and locally up to 3” as deep moisture moves in. This is not exactly a tropical storm, but there will be a tropical connection here, so the potential is pretty good. If you want to end a “droughty dry spell”, this is the way to do it.
Points for Next 7 Days:
Tuesday: 90. Mostly sunny. Hot with slowly lowering humidity.
Wednesday: 89. Partly to mostly sunny. Very warm.
Thursday: 92. Mostly sunny. Hot. Increasing clouds late.
Friday: 80. Cloudy. Rain. Chance for thunderstorms. Rain could be heavy at times. Humid.
Saturday: 85. Sun and clouds. Chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Sunday: 86. Sun and clouds. Chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Monday: 86. Mostly sunny. Chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.