Heading To Christmas

Today’s Discussion:

I was looking over my winter weather outlook from a month ago, and so far, am pleased with what has transpired. I expected:

1. Colder than last winter! Right on track. We were 12 degrees above average last December. Right now, we are near average for the month and will probably end about a degree above average.
2. Similar snowfall totals to last year. N/A yet. Will evaluate come February.
3. Total moisture looks to be about like last winter. Right on track with 2” plus this month so far.
4. Weather woes possible from Thanksgiving to New Years. Not bad: For example, Saturday was a mess.

I also looked at my expected storm tracks and that too is looking good:

1. Through the eastern Great Lakes: Sunday’s system was one, as have been several others.
2. Diving southeast from Northern Plains to the East Coast (Clipper systems): Got one coming Thursday.  
3. Southern Plains to Mid Atlantic Coast on E-NE: This is where our snow/ice came from Sat morning.

Not too bad, but December is not quite 2/3rds completed, and Jan and Feb loom. More importantly will be the weather for the week leading up to Christmas.

Summary: Seasonal with cold conditions Mon and Tue, then moderating Wed, Thu, cooler Fri and then moderating for Sat and Christmas Day. Thursday will feature the best chance for precipitation, and then again Christmas Day or Christmas Night into the 26th.

The breakdown:

1. Monday and Tuesday: Cold. Mostly sunny.
2. Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Seasonal.  
3. Thursday: Cloudy. Chance for snow showers or a period of steady wet snow. The trick here is does the clipper-like system have a secondary development off the NJ coast (gives us a period of snow) or off the NE coast (give us snow shower)?  I am leaning a little more toward NJ simply because that is what has happened multiple times this fall/early winter season. This is not a big system.  
4. Friday: Cooler. Sun and clouds.
5. Saturday: Mostly sunny. Seasonal.  
6. Christmas Day:  A little intrigue here. A flow from the SW will develop, but also in Canada a flow from the far north will develop. Meaning a collision of air will occur across the US/Canada border. This supports high pressure. Meanwhile a low-pressure system will be organizing in the southern plains looking to head Northeast. How these two systems interact will make the difference between a very warm to a snowy/icy Christmas night. I lean toward a middle of the road option: milder with some rain.