Again, the evolution of the upper level pattern continues. We have now taken the step from being well above average/average to average/below average on temperatures. [Not talking about one day events, but the over-all scheme like averaging 3 or 4-day period]. Our well above average regime has ended. But that does not mean a widespread snowstorm is on the horizon (it’s not!). Our average high temperature historically is still in the upper 40s. Not too conducive for snow. Therefore, our historical average for snow in Nov is 1” (~2” on higher ridges).
What does this mean? Well, it means that winter is not locking in just yet. But historically how often does it lock in around Thanksgiving and remain throughout the winter? Yes, there have been years where it has done so, but the historical record shows that this is not typical. In fact, it is rare. Winter doesn’t typically become dominant until sometime during the second half of December.
But what about the memories of all those white Christmases? Well, I have those too. But when I look back at the historical observations, I find that I remember the snowy ones more readily than the non-snowy ones. Snow is memorable. The lack of snow means the daily routine is the same. No disruption.
For example, take last winter. I am certain we all remember the Blizzard of 2016 very well and that nearly 30”. Tons of snow. But what about the very warm Christmas a month earlier? Do you even remember the temperature that day? Without looking it up, I certainly don’t. But snow is easy to remember because it is disruptive/fun. This will be even more pronounced for our kids/grandkids because the snow was so deep.
My point is that I do not see us locking into “winter” until the middle of December. I feel more confident in this now than a week ago as the storminess and moisture looks to be increasing. First you need the upper pattern to become conducive to storminess (check) and then the storminess to develop (Looks to be coming) and then you look for the cold). Until then expect stormier conditions, more rain, more wind, and gradually increasing chances for snow.
Now back to the present time: Thanksgiving Travel (Wed) looks good around here: Maybe a tiny touch of sleet/snow mix with light rain Wed night, but that should be it. Light rain for Thanksgiving Day, but not a lot. Some showers for Friday. Colder with more sunshine Sat and Sun. Milder Monday as a large storm takes shape in the Midwest and brings a strong chance of a soaking rain and mild temperatures Tuesday. Then a gradual cooling with yet another moist storm coming to impact us late next week.