Enjoying the Warmth

This is taken right off the Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) website. It gives a nice picture of the warm weather coming Mon-Tue. Enjoy.

All things are relative. Seriously. Take the temperatures for today: into the mid and upper 40s. Warm right?  Did you know that our long term average temperature should be around 46-48 degrees for this weekend?  In other words our weather for today is ... average!  It feels warm because it has been so cold.  Now Monday and Tuesday will also feel warm as seen above, but alas I digress. 


Speaking of digressing: Please keep the families of the Malaysian Flight on way to Beijing in your prayers as oil slicks have been sighted in the South China Sea. 


Highlights for coming week: It is spring so it will be changeable. Our winter pattern is slowly changing and it is becoming more springlike ... 


Sunday: colder than today, but still very nice. 


Monday-Tuesday: Clipper like storm passing to our north on Monday into Tuesday will bring a surge of milder temps into our area on a westerly breeze. A cold front will pass through with no fan fare at all, except that the air will feel cooler later on Tuesday.  This will set the stage for Wed/Wed nights storm. 


Wednesday: fast moving, but strengthening storm system will move from Rockies to Mid Atlantic Coastline dropping snow to its north and rain/thunderstorms to its south. As you can see by the image above, we are right near the rain snow line at this time according to the GFS model. But the Canadian and EURO have us with some rain, but changing to snow. It is a tough call. And after Monday's debacle of a snowstorm forecast (even in areas that got hit the system did not do what was expected), the forecast is even more hairy. Here are my questions: 

1. Not much has changed. The polar vortex is largely controlling our weather. It is not the same as it was on Monday, yet it is forecast to be in a similar position as it was for Monday's storm. Nothing is exactly the same, but could the cold arctic air pouring south push the storm further south making a weaker system like this past Monday? 
2. Are the models moving and weakening the Vortex too fast much like last Monday's storm scenerio? 
3. Will the surface temperatures be too warm to support accumulating snow, making it elevation dependent? 

It is a tough call. My gut feeling right now is that the models are a little too fast with the storm, meaning the cold air will have a few more hours to come in. This leads to a cold nasty rain to arrive Wed midday, and temps falling to the mid 30s. The rain gets heavier, and toward dinner time it changes to a really wet snow. Accumulations will be elevation dependent. Again, this is my gut feeling at this time. 

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Again this is off the WPC website. It depicts the storm to our south, which I agree with. However, the question is how strong is the high to the north and how much cold air gets in place. We are in the battle zone. MD will be rain. NY would be snow. Central PA? Cannot really definitively make a forecast call yet.

Now for the rest of the week: 


Thursday-Friday: Windy Thursday and much colder, milder and breezy on Friday. 

Saturday-Sunday: Chilly but not too bad with temps in the lower 40s for highs. Clouds rolling in late Sunday, and possible snow/rain for Monday. 


Specifics: 


Sunday: Sunny, chilly. High: 36. Low: 22. 


Monday: Clouds and sun. Mild. Breezy. High: 48. Low: 35. 


Tuesday: At least partly sunny. Mild again. Colder late. High: 53. Low: 39. 


Wednesday: Rain or wet snow. Colder. High: 40 early. Low: 27


Thursday: Clearing, windy and cold. High: 32. Low: 18. 


Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Milder. High: 46. Low: 31. 


Saturday: Sun and clouds. High: 47. Low: 28.


Sunday: Sun followed by increasing clouds. Chilly. High: 42. Low: 29. 

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