Dry and Beautiful to Wet and Tropical

The State of PA has declared a drought watch for our area. See map.  It shouldn’t surprise us too much, it has been a dry summer outside of what happened the last week in July. It is nice seeing a dry brown lawn turn moist and green again. But it’s now been dry since Tue for most and could stay that way until at least next Wed at the earliest.  

At that time a surge of tropical moisture, will come north and make for a very humid end of the week. Combine that with a frontal boundary nearby to the north and there will be chances for very heavy showers and thunderstorms each day Wed – Sun.  It may not rain every day in everyone’s back yard, but when it does it could dump a lot of water in a short time. Some days the showers/storms will be more widespread than others, but that depends on small scale disturbances, that cannot be forecast at this time.

Now this is where it could get real interesting: A trough may try to pick up the tropical disturbance that is likely to be lingering along the Gulf States all next week and lift it north-northeast into our area Sun – Mon.  This could bring a lot of widespread heavy rain. Stay tuned.  

Of course, this fits the summer forecast: Warmer and dryer on average, outside of tropical influences.   

Beside the potential wetness coming after next Wed, the question is how hot will it get? Well, that depends on several factors: Wind direction, cloud cover, and dry ground.

• Wind direction: a couple weeks ago we had temps climb to the mid and upper 90s on a westerly breeze and lower humidity. This can happen on a west wind. It is a dry wind. And areas to our west (Ohio, Central PA) are pretty dry right now. So a west wind, mixing drier dew point temps, lowering humidity and out temps could soar.
• Cloud Cover: With a lot of deep tropical moisture surging out of the south some extra clouds will be around. And since we will not be in the heart of the ridge, clouds will build during the daytime, thus helping limit the heating somewhat.
• Dry ground: When the ground is baked dry, the sun’s energy goes into heating the ground, not evaporating moisture or puddles, etc. But we have greened up. So the ground is not baked dry like it was on the surface a couple weeks ago, so that may cut temps a couple of degrees, however, areas like Potter county or even State College are very dry, so their temps may surge higher than ours based on ground conditions.

This building heat next week is a tough call. But I do not think we will see temps soar into the mid 90s. The reason being the humidity on south wind, the presence of some clouds, and the more moist ground, all point to around 90 at best.
 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Pleasant Days: Sunshine Sunday – Tuesday. Low humidity, and mild temps.
2. More Humid: Humidity returns Wed and stays with us through next weekend. Most days will turn very humid with dew-point temperatures around 70 or higher.
3. Chance Thunderstorms: Chance today (Sat) but not everyone gets one, then change Wed – Sun.  

 
Details:

Saturday: 86. Sun and clouds. Chance for a shower or thunderstorm.    

Sunday: 84. Sun and clouds. Lower humidity. Nice breeze.   

Monday: 82. Mostly sunny. Pleasant. Low humidity.

Tuesday: 84. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.

Wednesday: 86. Partly to mostly sunny. More humid. Slight chance of a shower/storm.   

Thursday: 87. Mostly sunny. Humid. Chance for showers and thunderstorms.         

Friday: 89. Mostly sunny. Humid Chance for showers and thunderstorms.          
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