Mon and Tue forecasts turned out pretty decent. And I’m pretty confident in Thu - Sat’s, however today's you can tear up and throw away. Some sun? Forget about it. Dry? Pretty good joke … if it was one. No, today will turn out much cooler, and wetter than it looked even 24 hours ago.
Wednesday: 55. Cloudy. Showers likely. Cool.
Thursday: 58. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely esp. in the morning.
Friday: 54. Cloudy. Periods of rain. Some could be heavy. Cool.
Saturday: 62. Decreasing clouds. Milder.
Sunday: 65. Breezy. Decreasing clouds. Shower possible in morning.
Monday: 66. Sun and clouds.
Tuesday: 70. Partly sunny. Milder.
Once we get past this coming Mother’s Day, the weather will be looking warmer and sunnier. Sat may turn out pretty nice, but Sunday is a question mark, but after that, very nice indeed.
Pattern is shaping up with a deep trough in the Eastern and Southwestern US. Pretty common type of pattern in the middle of spring. The cold air left over from winter is disappearing, and what is left are puddles of cool. We have been under the influence of one such “puddle” the last few days, and into today. Another will impact us Thu and Fri.
Some challenges for the next 36 hours …
Temperatures Today: Modeling says 70 or higher as warm air surges north. Supporting that is a weak area of low pressure riding up to our north with a burst of heavy rain for northern PA, NY and into Northern New England. This track often pulls warm air north.
BUT … this low is very weak and will essentially disappear, which is not good for pulling warm air north. Besides, we still have a weak but steady on-shore flow off the ocean. This cool marine air will not go easily, yet there is not a lot of strong support for it either.
Can we get to 70? Yes, if we get some wind. This can happen two ways: 1) cold front moves through which it will but likely too late. So on to next option. 2) Skies clear out giving the sun time to heat the ground. More likely, but with wet ground, some energy will be used to evaporate, and clouds with on-shore flow will be tough to leave.
In a nut shell: A tight gradient. York may reach 80, Harrisburg 77, and Selingrove 70, but Reading 62. This is just an example of what could happen and has happened already this year.
Temperatures Tue: Modelling did show temps well into the 60s as the rain stayed south of us, but the latest shows the rain lifting into our area, and temps cooler in the 50s. Not surprised one bit.
Computers are great tools … and only tools. We must all remember that.
Points for Next 7 Days:
Monday: 66. Showers ending. Some breaks of sun possible. Milder esp. in the late afternoon.
Tuesday: 58. Periods of rain on and off. Cool.
Wednesday: 65. Sun and clouds. Pleasant. Showers return overnight.
Thursday: 58. Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain.
Friday: 52. Cloudy. Periods of rain. Cool.
Saturday: 66. Decreasing clouds. Milder.
Sunday: 70. Increasing clouds. Chance showers. Milder.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.