Beware the Little Guy

I copied my list of three storms that I was concerned about over the past week (See below) because of the hype over Sat night and Sunday's system and the lack of attention to Tue's system. From earlier this week (see earlier posts for nearly identical list on same 3 systems):

1. Saturday: This goes up to the central Great Lakes (Michigan). It will bring some light rain/drizzle Fri night and possibly into very early Sat morning.  
2. Second system develops very early Saturday in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. It will deepen and move north/northeast west of the Appalachian Mountains during Sat night and Sunday morning.  Snowstorm for Chicago?   More likely there than here. We will have a rain storm.    
3. Third system comes along around Tue. This is likely our first widespread snow. Biggest question: How strong will it be? Will any southern energy get involved? I think it might, making a bigger storm. But right now no model supports me. The energy is there for this to be a “surprise” snow considering all the attention the Sun system has been getting. Time will tell. Behind this system is widespread arctic air. BRRR!

Now the chatter and hype are going again for next weekend (16-17): big snow?  Well, the pattern would allow for cold air, southern storm with lots of moisture. So the potential is there, and it is greater than what this weekend’s system showed. I must, however, urge caution. To get a big snow, it has to hit just right. I also see how this could phase with northern energy from Canada and move to our west giving us light snow, ice, and rain.

So yes the potential is there. Time will tell. But first things first ... BEWARE OF THE LITTLE GUY

I am amazed at the complete lack of attention being given to Tuesday's system. This morning there was finally some acknowledgement that this system cannot be ignored. I have been concerned about this one for the last week.  

I think many are hungry for their first real snow in the east, so everyone is tripping over each other to be the first to predict the BIG ONE. But BEWARE THE LITTLE GUY. The energy pieces are there. Some southern energy could get involved. It will be close if doesn’t. The northern energy is more prominent, and is more impressive each and every day. As the above models pictures from the UQAM illustrate, 5 days ago (Jan 3) the forecast for Tue evening had nothing. Now all have a decent storm. But we are still 4 ½ days away!  Here are my thoughts:

1. I fully expect a storm into Ontario, but a N/S moving arctic front approaching from the west.
2. As the front moves through the Ohio Valley into our area, an expanding and strengthening shield of snow should be developing.
3. A secondary storm should begin to develop off the coast of NJ and then strengthen significantly as it moves to the E/NE.
4. The heaviest snow should be in eastern New England. But for us a couple inches is not out of the question.

My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:

1. Rain: Heavy rain Sat night into early Sunday. 1 – 1.5” rain likely.   
2. Snow: Some snow is likely with Tue Night system. See above for thoughts.      
3. Clouds Dominate: Some sun is likely Monday, and early Tue. Lots of clouds Fri-Sun. Clouds and sun Wed and Thu.  
4. Cold: Mild Sunday early, then cold for rest of the week. Nothing outlandish, just typical winter cold.  

 
Friday:  38. Cloudy. Light rain/drizzle developing late.   

Saturday: 41. Cloudy. Any light rain ending with more rain developing after dark. Temps steady or slowly rising overnight. Rain heavy at times.      

Sunday: 53. Mostly cloudy. Rain ending. Winds increasing late. Temps steady but falling late.  

Monday: 36. Partly sunny. Windy. Colder.      

Tuesday: 32. Increasing clouds. Some snow possible after dark.  

Wednesday: 28. Any snow ending very early. Becoming partly to mostly sunny. Gusty wind at times. Cold.    

Thursday: 27. Mix of sun and clouds. Flurries possible. Gusty wind at times.  Cold.