A Spring Preview Thursday? Winter Return Saturday?

Today will be drier but also growing cooler. Not that Sunday was all that warm, the cool air hung on strongly even without big high-pressure support. Not too surprising, as it happens quite often around here: rain cooled atmosphere, low clouds, no sunshine, no wind = much cooler.  Looking back at Sunday is why I am concerned for Thursday.

Thursday has the potential to be one of those exquisite out of season days. Like 75 and sunshine in the middle of July. This time 65 in the middle of February. Wow. But not so fast. We will only reach the 60s if we get the right conditions at the right time.

On Thursday a very warm day could happen if:

1. Clouds and rain move away before sunrise Thursday.
2. Mostly sunny skies last through mid-afternoon.
3. Winds increase out of the W-SW.
4. Clouds ahead of cold front hold off until evening.

Not too much to ask, huh?  Therefore, I am going for 50s, as I think we get some of the above, just not all of it.
 
The next challenge is Saturday.  Is there a follow of storm right behind the cold front of Friday?  Could points to consider:

1. Moisture is forecast to pool along the front in the central US in a SW – NE fashion.
2. There is some decent energy that is enhancing this precipitation along the front.
3. Models:
   1. GFS says NO … but it tends to be too fast, meaning it crushes any additional energy. It is the fastest of all models right now.
   2. EURO says NO … but it tends to be too slow with southern energy, causing it to be strung out and weak.
   3. GERMAN says YES … but this one overplays southern weather systems at times
4. Observation (most important aspect to forecasting): This morning, originally it was to be dry for the whole of the NE US, but there is a disturbance causing some rain, (which I predicted), and it is even producing some heavy rain (see radar picture from 9:40 am 2/12 for the NE). This has been a recurring theme. For much of the winter any follow-up system on a cold front as been weak, but stronger than it was first forecast. This supports the idea of a storm, but it should remain weak.

That is all for now. Enjoy!