Our week coming up will be a mild to warm week. Not looking as warm as it looked the other day, since ridge will not be able to exert its full influence on the Northeast. This leads to cooler temperatures; still quite mild, but not overly “warm” as previously thought.
The forecast has a high level of confidence until we come to the weekend. Then things get murky. As the pattern goes from the Phase 1 of winter, to a January Thaw and then into what could be Phase 2 of winter (colder and snowier) things after day 6 are less certain. I do believe a pattern shift to colder, stormier, and snowier will occur for the last week of January – first week of February. After that, I would not be surprised to see the pattern return to phase 1: cold, mild, snow, ice, rain as we have been getting. Still lots of uncertainty.