A Mild to Warm Week

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​Discussion: 
Our week coming up will be a mild to warm week. Not looking as warm as it looked the other day, since ridge will not be able to exert its full influence on the Northeast. This leads to cooler temperatures; still quite mild, but not overly “warm” as previously thought.


The forecast has a high level of confidence until we come to the weekend. Then things get murky. As the pattern goes from the Phase 1 of winter, to a January Thaw and then into what could be Phase 2 of winter (colder and snowier) things after day 6 are less certain.  I do believe a pattern shift to colder, stormier, and snowier will occur for the last week of January – first week of February. After that, I would not be surprised to see the pattern return to phase 1: cold, mild, snow, ice, rain as we have been getting. Still lots of uncertainty.


Daily Details:

• Monday: Increasing clouds as storm from plains heads our way. Some freezing rain is likely after midnight, but will quickly change to light rain by 8 am Tuesday. Not a lot of ice, but it doesn’t take much to be a problem.
• Tuesday: Damp and cool with some light rain as storm weakens and shifts off the NJ coast to our east. This keeps the warmest air from surging north. We get milder, but the real warmth stays away. (map 1: storm follows red line)
• Wednesday: Decreasing clouds. Nice and mild. 
• Thursday: Nicest day of the week. Mild with sunshine.
• Friday: Weakening storm brings some rain Friday into Friday night. Mild. (map 2: expected path of weaken storm along red line)
• Saturday: Sun and clouds. Mild to warm.
• Sunday: Mild to warm with increasing clouds. Chance for rain late or overnight. (map 3: possible path of stronger wetter storm would bring heavy rain with wet snow to our north)

 
Enjoy.