A Great Thanksgiving Week

The pictures below give a visual of what to expect over the next 7-10 days. I do not agree with the details. This GFS model I think is too weak with next Tue/Wed storm and too slow with the storm that follow the first weekend in December. More details below. Click on gallery to see the general sequence. 

Thanksgiving is tomorrow and for our region that weather will be great. It's been good so far all week. Yes, some clouds. Yes, a little chilly. But no rain. No snow. No ice. Pretty nice in my book. Think back to last year. It snowed just prior to Thanksgiving. Some folks got 12" on the ridges and to our west toward Alttoona, Bedford, areas. 

So 2015 weather for Thanksgiving is pretty nice. 

We will have sunshine through most of Friday, then a cold front comes though as trough splits leaving a piece behind for much of the nation to deal with from the weekend through the middle of next week.

The forecast is complex. The trough leaves a piece behind and generates a wave of low pressure along cold front. This front moves through by early Saturday morning. Then front stalls. New wave of low pressure moves along front bringing rain to the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. We should stay dry.

Biggest piece from trough still out west. As it moves E-NE a new storm develops and moves into the Great Lakes. This brings rain for us over the middle portion of next week. It will not be a warm rain. Temps in the 40s for the most part. The rain could be heavy at times.

After this storm leaves, a new batch of energy will have begun to carve out the trough again. This energy may induce a significant storm along the Gulf Coast which may move N-NE toward our area. This would impact us as we approach the first weekend in Dec.

During this time, temperatures will be seasonal. Chances for a big snow are slim, but not impossible. Remember this is still November. We average very little snow in Nov. Yes, it can snow and has. But we have also had Nov’s with no snow at all. Not unusual.

December will likely be a transition month. Milder start, colder ending.

Now back to our sunny week, with likely storminess next week.
 
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:

1. Milder: Temps warming about 5 degrees per day Tue – Fri. That means is possible by Fri!  Not bad, eh?
2. Sunshine: Lots of sun Tue – most of Fri.  
3. Returning Cold: Cold front moves through Fri night. Some showers possible, but with trough split moisture is cut off. Cooler Sat, even colder Sun.
4. Storm: That piece of the trough left behind in the WSW US will have to be dealt with. It will push east. But right now don’t focus on details. Models will struggle, and so will forecasters, like myself  
5. Rumors of Storms: There very well could be another storm affecting our area sometime around the first weekend of December. Rain or snow details would need to be worked out, but probably rain. 

 
Wednesday: 48. Partly to mostly sunny. Milder.  

Thursday: 54. Mostly sunny. Happy Thanksgiving.             

Friday: 59. Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. Becoming breezy.           

Saturday: 54. Mostly cloudy. Chillier.  

Sunday: 47. Much colder. Mostly cloudy. Some partial sun in afternoon possible.   

Monday: 46. Mostly sunny. Seasonally cool.  

Tuesday: 42. Mostly cloudy. Rain possible late or at night. Temps steady or rising at night.