The mild pattern continues. And the changes are becoming more and more apparent. For example:
Warm ups getting shorter: 2 days above 55 this Wed and Thu, and 28-29th another warm up for at most 8 hours of temps above 55. Contrast this to the previous warm up just a week ago that had 5 consecutive days above 55 Thu – Mon.
Another example are the storm driven warm ups: This is important. With the next two warm ups, the storms come and move NW of our area, through the Great Lakes, pulling warm and moist air from Gulf of Mexico north. Storms and rain develop when there is a fight going on.
So yes, changes are occurring. And you will really feel it by the beginning of January. The sunny warm weather, which we have had plenty of this fall (Sep – Dec) will be replaced by cloudy, wet and increasingly cooler weather. I originally expected this wet, stormier weather to begin at the end of Nov and the chilly weather to begin in mid- December. Obviously that was wrong. I completely missed the intensity of the warmth. Must learn from mistakes.
My adjustment to pattern locking in by mid-January looks very good. Chilly to seasonal weather will become stronger as the warm ups get weaker. We see this in the coming 10 days very clearly.
I do not see any real chances for snow through the end of the month. So Dec will be one of those snowless Dec’s. Another all-time record is likely to be tied. Cannot break a minimum record for snowfall in Dec when the record is zero. But we will likely tie it.
Temperature wise, we are likely to set the record for warmest Dec in recorded history for the state as a whole. That is pretty impressive. Great for travel. Great for shopping. Great for heating/electric bills. Lousy for snow lovers. Really lousy for ski resorts.
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:
Monday: 44. Mostly cloudy. Seasonal. Drizzle possible after dark.
Tuesday: 53. Cloudy with some rain. Milder.
Wednesday: 61 after dark. Rain. Some heavy. Very warm at night with temps rising.
Christmas Eve: 65 before noon. Partly sunny. Morning showers. Very warm. Temps falling late. Clearing. Breezy.
Christmas: 51. Mostly sunny. Feels cooler. Some late clouds.
Saturday: 50. Cloudy. Rain arriving in afternoon.
Sunday: 46. Mostly cloudy. Some showers early. Cooler. Temps steady or slowly falling.
Monday: 39. Much colder. Cold rain showers arriving late with temps rising overnight.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.