5 pm Update

The precipitation is coming as you can see from this 5:27 pm radar picture. But it is taking its sweet time. And the longer it takes the warmer the atmosphere will be by the time it gets here.

It does appear that there will be a period of snow or snow/sleet mixed (shorter duration south, longer north) at the beginning, but it will become sleet/freezing rain for much of the night prior to 3 am. After that rain with pockets of freezing rain will dominate.

The forecast looks pretty well on target. The amount of snow is the tough call. But the way chances for snow have been going this month ... I would lean low, which is what I did, but probably not low enough.  

Stay safe. Have a blessed evening. 

---

This is the 7:04 am radar shot from State College NWS. It shows light snow falling across much of central PA. But looks are deceiving. It is not snowing NE of a line from State College to Harrisburg. and SW of that line. The snow is evaporating in the dry air. This is an important sign for this evening.

Since I am off today, I will update when needed. This morning there is a need.

Update:

• Flurries, or very light snow this morning. Coating at best.
• Cloudy this afternoon. 
• Snow/sleet redevelops after ~ 4 pm and changes to all snow through ~ 7 pm. 
• Snow accumulating 1-3". Locally more, esp. north of Pottsville. 
• Snow changes to sleet and freezing rain after 7 pm. 
• Freezing rain changes to light rain after 2 am, but pockets of freezing rain will remain until sunrise. 
• Intermittent light rain Tue ends as flurries or period of light snow in the afternoon. 

       
Why the adjustment? 

• Recall the one question I had last evening?  (See it in previous post). It was a concern about Mon evening. Would it be snow?  This mornings evaporating snow gives a strong clue that the cold, dry air will hold on longer. Thus, we get snow this evening. 
• Modelling has shifted and is also not showing support for snow this evening as well.
  
• Concern: the difference between a coating of snow and 4" of snow this evening will be less than 30 miles. Any shift north of south will make a big difference.