You Win Some, You Lose Some

Note: Sorry for the lateness. Lots going on. Plus I wanted to see more observations before finalizing my forecast for the "storm" tomorrow. We are going to miss having a major snowfall by a hair. What I mean is that the ingredients are all there ... they just missed coming together. It would not have taken much to change this. But a miss is a miss ...

You win some ... you lose some. It’s a 50-50 proposition.

Yes, some things came together as expected, and others are not.  What do I mean?  Well, the storm will develop and will be closer to coast than was forecast a few days ago, as expected, however, not all is fine and dandy.
What I mean is this:

1. Within cutoff low are two strong areas of energy. One near Buffalo, and the other near St Louis.
2. Earlier in the week the GFS focused on the further east energy and pushed storm out to sea on a much faster pace than the EURO, which focused on the western energy and produced a slower, larger storm staying close to the coast.

Both are right … both are wrong.  How is this possible?

1. The eastern and western energies are both strong. This results in an elongated, egg shaped upper low orientation that gives us two storms.
2. One weaker front running system for Sat that pulls the deeper moisture further east giving the second storm less moisture to work with initially.
3. The second storm will develop Sunday but with much less initial moisture. So by the time it moistens up, it is moving from our region.

So this forecast although not perfect, is turning out ok. The biggest goof is in over doing the “heavy at times precipitation for Sunday.”  Again, not perfect, but ok.  
 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Cold: Yea, it’s still March. Cold air will last through Monday.
2. Light snow: Some light, very wet snow may fall between 3 pm – 10 pm Sun. The ground could turn white in the valleys with maybe up to 1 or 2” in higher elevations. This is a low confidence forecast as a slight change in upper levels of Atmosphere would lead to big differences at the surface. I like what I have, but things could change and change fast.   
3. Warming Trend: This starts Tue.
4. 70 here we come: Temps running to 70 degrees Thu and probably Fri.
5. Showers/Storms: No severe weather here, but could be some in Midwest. We should see a decent rain, but front will weaken as it comes east, so not expecting a lot.

 
Details:

Sunday: 38. Cloudy. Light snow/rain developing later in day. Light snow in evening.           

Monday: 45. Clearing. Sun and clouds. Breezy.            

Tuesday: 53. Mostly sunshine. Clouds at times. Seasonal temps.

Wednesday: 65. Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.           

Thursday: 70. Mostly sunny. Beautiful. Warm.           

Friday: 72. Increasing clouds. Warm. Breezy. Showers/thunderstorms developing.  

Saturday: 61. Sun and clouds. Still mild.

Easter Sunday: 57. Sun and clouds.