Winter Weather Outlook:

I am not a long-range weather expert (then again, no one knows the future either, aside from God that is), so this is my best guess as to what I anticipate seeing for this upcoming winter season (Dec, Jan and Feb).

1. Colder than last winter! Seriously. I know last winter was warm, or so it seemed. Last Dec was a record shattering warm month. It was only 11 degrees above average. The warmest by far that we’ve ever recorded since the late 1800s. Impressive, indeed. Jan and Feb, however, were almost right on the long-term average. Dec’s warmth overshadows the typical winter temperatures of Jan and Feb.  Dec 2016 looks to be MUCH colder than last Dec. And that alone will make this winter MUCH colder.
2. Similar snowfall totals to last year. BUT coming about in a different way.  Last year’s snow came in about four snowfalls (Jan, Feb, Apr). We all remember the Jan Blizzard of 30 inches. Who can forget that?  But then the other three snowfalls/storms gave us the rest of our snow. Other than those 4 events, snow was pretty much absent. This year, I anticipate a much more active pattern. More storms, but smaller snowfall amounts. I expect the amounts to be similar, around 50 by the time the last flake flies.
3. Total moisture looks to be about like last winter, a little above average. Again, more frequent, but smaller storms.
4. Weather woes possible from Thanksgiving to New Years. Last year there were none for the most part. But this year, much colder start, so those Dreaming of a White Christmas have a shot at it this year. Not saying it will, but the possibility is certainly there.

Pattern:

1. “Warm Blob” in the Pacific should act as the traffic cop for our weather. Since things flow west to east, and this warm blob of to our west, it will impact our weather. With this area of warm water being in the Gulf of Alaska, it will encourage the development of a ridge just to its east along the Canadian West Coast. This in turn creates a trough in the eastern US. Again this is the expected General pattern. It will ebb and flow from week to week, but over-all the tough position should be east of the Rockies, and centered over the upper Midwest, western Great Lakes.
2. Storms look to track in 3 major paths.
   1. Through the eastern Great Lakes, but to our west bringing snow/ice/rain mess to our area.
   2. Diving southeast from Northern Plains to the East Coast (Clipper systems). These will bring cold and fluffy snowfalls to us.
   3. Southern Plains to Mid Atlantic Coast on E-NE. This could bring heavier snow, and or ice/rain mixtures depending on depth of cold air.
3. Blocking around Greenland will be a key to how cold and how sustained is the cold. Typically, the blocking is most effective in late winter/early spring (Feb and Mar), therefore, making Feb our snowiest month on average despite having the fewest days. Already we are seeing signs that this could be a big factor this winter. Tough to forecast.

Summary:
A colder winter than last year with temps a degree or so below average, and featuring more frequent snows, but smaller overall, giving us another above average year of around 50 inches total.
 
Today’s Discussion:
It is fall-like. Then again it is the end of October so it should be fall-like, right?  There has been some talk of “snow” coming up tonight into Thu morning … well, don’t worry about it. You may see some wet flakes of snow mixed in with the rain very early Thu but it will be too warm for any kind of accumulation if there are even snowflakes.
If you want to see it snow, go north and in the mountains for a brief period of snow. But for us nothing to get excited about.  Just cool, raw and rainy tomorrow.
Behind this system it is blustery on Friday, and still cool. Sat looks descent but another storm system approaches from the west late in the day. This storm will track further north, leaving a frontal boundary across our area, giving us a likelihood of some showers on Sunday. Behind this storm it’s seasonal with sun and clouds for the early to middle portion of the week.
Enjoy. 

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