Winter Taking It's Bite

The Picture on the left is the current Sea surface anomaly chart. Notice the red tongue the west of South America. That is a strong El Nino. The picture on the right is from 1997. Notice the red tongue?  But compare the two. The strongest point is right next to South America's west coast. This year, it is more stretched out further west. That will make a big difference in our winter. 

Winter Taking it Bite:

Although not here.

Yet. 

Remember on Saturdays post I talked about a second storm would come before ushering in much colder air?  Well, that storm is coming and will dump snow a good amount of snow on parts of the Midwest.  And if you are traveling to the windy city this weekend … yup. Cold, wind and snow. Might be a lot of snow for a first real snow that is. It will melt, of course, but just a taste of the winter to come.

For us?  On the mild side through Thu with lots of rain, then cooler Fri and Sat. Second storm zips past Sat night, ushering in much colder weather for Sunday. Snow flurries even a show shower possible Sunday. Highs Sunday barely reaching 40. About the same for Monday but with less wind and lots of sunshine. Brrrrr.

Winter is coming. But moderating temps begin on Tuesday. Thanksgiving week should not be all that bad around our region of the nation as a tough reloads in the SW US and ridge builds in the east.

Looking ahead to winter and this so-called monster El Niño and blow torch winter ... well, not so fast. It is very strong. The strongest in the 3.4 region (which is a record), but its weaker in the 1.2 region. In other words, more west based than east based. This means the warmest water is well west of South America. Upward motion occurs where water is the warmest. Upward motion generally means a trough, with a ridge to the east. This places a ridge somewhere over West Coast of US. This would then dump a trough into the central and eastern US. This is just a general picture. The details will need to be worked out. Plus, times of mild weather will also occur. So this is just a general, average picture. When does it start?  It is moving in that direction already. But I don't think it will really begin to get there until mid-December at the earliest.  

In other words this El Nino is not the beast some want you to believe. Back to the next 7 days ... 
 
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:

1. Rain: It starts early Thu morning, and continues most of the day. Not a cold rain either at temps are mild. Expect a good soaking of 1 ½” or so.
2. Chilly: Much cooler Fri and Sat with temps around 50. Front moves through Sat night and ushers in true winter-like air.
3. Cold: Sunday and Monday will feel like winter. Temps in the 30s for most of the day. Windy Sunday, calmer Monday.   
4. Snow: Midwest will have first snowstorm of the season this weekend. We will not. But flurries and a snow shower are possible Sunday, although unlikely.  
5. Moderation: Cold morning Monday and Tuesday but temps rebounding into the 40s and low 50s by Wed.
6. Travel Weather:  In our region of the nation, there will be no real weather related travel concerns for Thanksgiving. It will be mild, but turn colder again the weekend after Thanksgiving.  

 
Wednesday: 57. Cloudy. Chance drizzle. Very mild overnight with temps holding steady. 
Thursday: 64. Cloudy with heavy rain, esp. in the morning. Mild. Breezy.            
Friday: 52. Clouds giving away to partial sunshine.          
Saturday: 51. Partly sunny. Increasing clouds. Breezy afternoon and overnight.  
Sunday: 40. Partly sunny. Windy and cold. Flurries. 
Monday: 40. Mostly sunny. Very cold morning.                    
Tuesday: 50. Mostly sunny. Midler.