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Faithful Forecast

A Forecast for Southern Schuylkill and Northern Lebanon County  

Winter Strikes Again ... With a Mess

2/19/2019

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We have a winter storm coming Wed – Wed Night. So lets get to it ... 

Forecast:
  • Snow: 4-5”
  • Sleet: Up to 1”
  • Freezing Rain: coating to 1/4” accrual on just about everything.
​
Details:
  • Snow: ~ 9 am - 2 pm.
    • 5 hours of moderate to heavy snow.
    • This forecast accounts for a faster changeover to sleet by about 1-2 hours than all guidance is indicating. I do not see the warm air being held off for long.
  • Sleet: Develops from 1-3 pm.
    • The sleet could be heavy at first, but it should lighten and taper off to light freezing rain/freezing drizzle by 7 pm.
  • Freezing Rain/Drizzle: After 6 pm
    • Mostly light and becomes spottier during the overnight.
 
Big Question: How much snow? A deep conveyor of moisture will be heading our way. Will it be spread out (less snow), concentrated (more snow), come in heavy bands (more snow) or a widespread area of mod/heavy snow (less snow)?  There is no way to answer that until tomorrow morning and we see how the precipitation is behaving. 

The 4-5” is a forecast that looks solid.. But it could easily be wrong by 2-3” high or low. The transition to sleet, freezing rain, and the amounts, are relatively easy when compared to the snow amount question. Even the models differ from a high of 9" to a low of 2". Not good when it's 24 hours away ... 
 
Rest of the Week:
  • Thu: Mild with highs in the 40’s. Clear snow/sleet/ice in a sweatshirt.
  • Fri: Nice. Seasonal.
  • Sat-Sun: Rainstorm coming. Could be a soaking rain. Perhaps into the 50’s at some point Sunday if all works out right. Cool air may be stubborn though. 
Enjoy. 
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    Author

    Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.

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