Winter Strikes Again ... With a Mess

We have a winter storm coming Wed – Wed Night. So lets get to it ... 

Forecast:

• Snow: 4-5”
• Sleet: Up to 1”
• Freezing Rain: coating to 1/4” accrual on just about everything.

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Details:

• Snow: ~ 9 am - 2 pm.
  • 5 hours of moderate to heavy snow.
  • This forecast accounts for a faster changeover to sleet by about 1-2 hours than all guidance is indicating. I do not see the warm air being held off for long.
• Sleet: Develops from 1-3 pm.
  • The sleet could be heavy at first, but it should lighten and taper off to light freezing rain/freezing drizzle by 7 pm.
• Freezing Rain/Drizzle: After 6 pm
  • Mostly light and becomes spottier during the overnight.

 
Big Question: How much snow? A deep conveyor of moisture will be heading our way. Will it be spread out (less snow), concentrated (more snow), come in heavy bands (more snow) or a widespread area of mod/heavy snow (less snow)?  There is no way to answer that until tomorrow morning and we see how the precipitation is behaving. 

The 4-5” is a forecast that looks solid.. But it could easily be wrong by 2-3” high or low. The transition to sleet, freezing rain, and the amounts, are relatively easy when compared to the snow amount question. Even the models differ from a high of 9" to a low of 2". Not good when it's 24 hours away ... 
 
Rest of the Week:

• Thu: Mild with highs in the 40’s. Clear snow/sleet/ice in a sweatshirt.
• Fri: Nice. Seasonal.
• Sat-Sun: Rainstorm coming. Could be a soaking rain. Perhaps into the 50’s at some point Sunday if all works out right. Cool air may be stubborn though. 

Enjoy.