Although the storm is in the early stages, there are current signs hinting at what is to come. There are two areas of heavy precipitation. One is from Pittsburgh to Williamsport. This is a wide general area of heavy snow and this will continue and move NE into eastern NY. Another area is near the PA/MD border. This area is growing and will lift north and east and give us heavy snow. So far so good right?
Not so fast. That warm air that I've been concerned could sabotage our heavy snow fall is moving fast and will impact us. This was not clear early this morning as most modeling showed the mild air staying south, but now one can see what is really happening.
We should remain all snow up to 6 pm. Then sleet comes in. I am not sure if it will be a sleet/snow mix, a bounce between snow and sleet, or all sleet. The warm layer is deep enough to melt the snow into ice, but its not very warm. At most it will be 1 deg above freezing. It does however look like it will linger for 3-5 hours. Certainly more than any model was showing at any time prior to this. The snow/sleet will then change back to snow.
This will cut our snow totals down a bit (a lot if you were hoping for all fluffy snow) to around 14 inches. It all depends on how long it stays as sleet or sleet/snow mix. The only question remaining, can the heavy precipitation slow the warm air? It is possible.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.