Morning Comment

As one can tell my concerns came true in regards to #1. We stayed too warm too long. Thus a much wetter snow and less of it. For example around State College people are reporting 6" as of 6 am. They had colder temperatures much earlier (20s). For us, we were warmer (30s until 7 am), giving us less snow. SE and South Central PA will be disappointed once again. Just too much warm air ... the theme of the winter continues.

However, this system will not disappoint once you get to New England, as the cold air is really crashing in, and the result is increasing forcing to produce heavy snow. 

The snow is winding down for us. Maybe another 1/2 to 1" at most. It is pretty. Total will be closer to 3-5" in the valleys and another inch or so on the ridges. I hope you get to enjoy it at least a little bit. 

Major winter storm to impact us tonight into tomorrow morning. I know it’s so warm today how can it snow?  Well, cold air is not far away and it is moving our way. It will get here. I recall in April 2000, in East Meredith, NY it was 72 degrees and sunny on Saturday. We awoke to 12” of snow Sunday morning. If it sets up is right it can and will snow. This looks to be one of those set up’s.

Concerns:

1. Cold air is not moving all that much the last few hours. Could be the suns influence, yet is this a sign that it may not come in as soon as we thought?  The dew points have dropped appreciably, so the temperature will drop off this evening as the sun sets. My concern is if it’s a few degrees too warm … or if delayed by a couple of hours … leads to big changes.
2. Better developed in Midwest than expected. Does this mean storm is stronger and will move a little slower and closer to the coast?  This could lead to a couple hour’s more of snow.
3. Vertical Motion: The models are showing some insane intensity. This lift could lead to 2-4” snowfall rates. If this happens then 4 hours of snow could still yield 8-12” of snow. I have experienced what insane snowfall rates can do. The snow turns lighter, fluffier, and much larger so it piles up very fast.

Those three are my concerns and they are in order. This could be a big snow for many, but it could lead to a lot of disappointment too. However, we have another 11 hours before I would expect snow to start sticking around here. We shall see.